Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 2010-2011 50/50

Lost to Maple Leafs 4-5, playoff odds down 1.5 to 96.2%

97 points 26-6 23-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	-1.6		-0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hurricanes vs Penguins	-0.4-0.2-0.1*+0.2+0.2+0.4
Capitals vs Rangers	+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3
Sabres vs Senators	-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Lightning vs Devils	+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Canadiens finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

157		20	-	0	0		-	0	In		71	29														59
151		16	-	2	0		-	2	In		50	50														2	*
150		16	-	2	1		-	1	In		50	50														6	*
149		15	-	3	1		-	1	In		15	75		10												20	*
148		14	-	4	1		-	1	In			87		13												23	*
147		15	-	2	2		-	1	In		14	81		5												57	*
146		14	-	3	2		-	1	In		8	85		6												172	*
145		13	-	4	2		-	1	In		7	81	1	10	0											231	*
144		13	-	3	2		-	2	In		4	80	1	14	1											512	*
143		12	-	4	2		-	2	In		3	74	2	20	1											824	*
142		12	-	3	2		-	3	In		2	70	3	23	2											1,454	*
141		12	-	3	3		-	2	In		1	63	5	27	4											2,213	*
140		11	-	4	3		-	2	In		0	54	7	32	7											3,634	*
139		11	-	3	3		-	3	In		0	46	8	35	11											5,440	*
138		11	-	3	4		-	2	In		0	36	11	37	15	0										7,666	*
137		10	-	4	4		-	2	In		0	27	12	38	23	0										10,871	*
136		10	-	3	4		-	3	In		0	20	12	36	30	1										15,025	*
135		9	-	4	4		-	3	In			14	13	33	38	2										19,384	*
134		9	-	4	5		-	2	In			9	12	28	47	4	0									24,403	*
133		9	-	3	5		-	3	In			5	10	24	53	8	0									29,705	*
132		8	-	4	5		-	3	In			3	9	18	56	13	0									35,786	*
131		8	-	3	5		-	4	In			2	7	13	57	21	0	0								40,597	*
130		8	-	3	6		-	3	In			1	5	9	55	30	1	0								45,247	*
129		7	-	4	6		-	3	100.0	%		0	4	5	49	40	2	0	0							48,844	*
128		7	-	3	6		-	4	In			0	2	3	41	49	4	0								50,843	*
127		7	-	3	7		-	3	In			0	1	1	32	58	7	0								51,873	*
126		6	-	4	7		-	3	100.0			0	1	1	23	62	13	1	0							50,936	*
125		6	-	3	7		-	4	100.0				1	0	15	63	20	2	0							48,631	*
124		6	-	3	8		-	3	99.9				0	0	9	60	27	4	0	0						45,269	*
123		5	-	4	8		-	3	99.6				0	0	5	52	35	7	0	0						40,816	*
122		5	-	3	8		-	4	98.8				0	0	3	42	42	12	1	0						35,329	*
121		5	-	3	9		-	3	97.1				0		1	32	45	19	3	0						29,764	*
120		5	-	2	9		-	4	93.7				0		0	22	44	27	6	0	0					24,253	*
119		4	-	3	9		-	4	87.9				0		0	14	39	35	11	1	0					19,353	*
118		4	-	3	10		-	3	77.7				0		0	7	31	39	19	3	0					14,679	*
117		4	-	2	10		-	4	66.0				0		0	3	22	40	26	7	1	0				11,074	*
116		4	-	2	11		-	3	49.7							2	13	36	35	13	2	0				7,778	*
115		3	-	3	11		-	3	34.9							1	7	27	39	22	5	0				5,417	*
114		3	-	2	11		-	4	22.7							0	4	19	36	30	10	1				3,550	*
113		3	-	2	12		-	3	12.2								1	11	31	36	18	3	0			2,330	*
112		3	-	1	12		-	4	5.2								0	5	22	40	26	6	0			1,395	*
111		2	-	2	12		-	4	2.7									3	14	30	35	16	2			888	*
110		2	-	2	13		-	3	1.1									1	7	24	38	25	6	0		475	*
109		2	-	1	13		-	4	Out										2	15	42	32	8	1		259	*
108		2	-	1	14		-	3	Out										1	7	33	41	16	3		156	*
107		1	-	2	14		-	3	Out											4	24	38	32	4		85	*
106		1	-	1	14		-	4	Out											6	8	36	42	8		36	*
105		1	-	1	15		-	3	Out												40	30	20	10		10	*
104		1	-	1	16		-	2	Out													50	25	25		8	*
102	-103								Out														100			3	*
97		0	-	0	20		-	0	Out														8	54	37	59

Total:									96.2	%	0	4	3	8	27	34	14	6	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	737,444

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 5	+0.7

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lightning vs Devils	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1

What If

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

157	20	-	0	0		-	0	63	8	29
151	16	-	2	0		-	2	50		50
150	16	-	2	1		-	1	33	17	50
149	15	-	3	1		-	1		15	70	5			10
148	14	-	4	1		-	1			83	4			13
147	15	-	2	2		-	1		14	77	4			5
146	14	-	3	2		-	1	1	8	76	10			6
145	13	-	4	2		-	1	1	6	69	13	1		10		0
144	13	-	3	2		-	2	0	4	62	18	1		14		1
143	12	-	4	2		-	2		3	52	22	2		20	0	1
142	12	-	3	2		-	3	0	2	45	25	3	0	23	0	2
141	12	-	3	3		-	2		1	31	31	5	0	27	0	4
140	11	-	4	3		-	2		0	21	32	6	1	31	1	7
139	11	-	3	3		-	3		0	15	31	7	1	33	2	11
138	11	-	3	4		-	2		0	8	28	8	3	33	4	15	0	0
137	10	-	4	4		-	2		0	4	23	8	4	32	6	22	0	0
136	10	-	3	4		-	3		0	2	18	7	6	27	10	30	1	1
135	9	-	4	4		-	3			1	14	6	7	20	13	35	3	2	0
134	9	-	4	5		-	2			0	9	4	8	13	15	40	6	4	0	0
133	9	-	3	5		-	3			0	5	2	8	8	16	39	14	8	0	0
132	8	-	4	5		-	3			0	3	1	7	3	15	33	24	12	1	0	0
131	8	-	3	5		-	4				2	0	6	1	12	22	35	16	5	0	0	0
130	8	-	3	6		-	3				1	0	5	0	8	13	42	18	12	1	0	0
129	7	-	4	6		-	3				0	0	4	0	5	5	44	16	24	1	1	0	0	0
128	7	-	3	6		-	4				0	0	2	0	3	2	39	11	39	2	2	0	0
127	7	-	3	7		-	3				0	0	1		1	0	32	5	52	3	5	0	0
126	6	-	4	7		-	3				0		1		1	0	23	2	60	2	10	0	0	0
125	6	-	3	7		-	4						1		0	0	15	1	62	1	18	0	1	0	0
124	6	-	3	8		-	3						0		0		9	0	59	1	27	0	3	0	0	0
123	5	-	4	8		-	3						0		0		5	0	52	0	35	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
122	5	-	3	8		-	4						0		0		3	0	42	0	42	0	12	0	0	0	0	0	0
121	5	-	3	9		-	3						0				1		32	0	45	0	19	0	0	1	1	0	0
120	5	-	2	9		-	4						0				0		22		44	0	27	0	0	2	2	1	0	0
119	4	-	3	9		-	4						0				0		14		39	0	35	0	0	2	4	4	1	0	0
118	4	-	3	10		-	3						0				0		7		31		39	0	0	2	6	9	5	1	0
117	4	-	2	10		-	4						0				0		3		22		40		0	1	6	13	11	3	0	0
116	4	-	2	11		-	3												2		13		36		0	1	5	17	20	7	1	0
115	3	-	3	11		-	3												1		7		27			0	3	15	28	15	4	0	0
114	3	-	2	11		-	4												0		4		19			0	1	12	28	24	10	2	0
113	3	-	2	12		-	3														1		11				1	7	27	31	17	5	1	0
112	3	-	1	12		-	4														0		5				0	3	20	34	25	11	2	0
111	2	-	2	12		-	4																3					0	11	26	33	20	5	1
110	2	-	2	13		-	3																1					0	6	16	31	31	13	2	0
109	2	-	1	13		-	4																						2	8	33	32	22	2	1
108	2	-	1	14		-	3																							3	20	35	32	8	3
107	1	-	2	14		-	3																							1	8	29	40	18	4
106	1	-	1	14		-	4																							3	3	14	39	36	6
105	1	-	1	15		-	3																								30	20	20	20	10
104	1	-	1	16		-	2																									38	13	25	25
103	0	-	1	15		-	4																											100
102	0	-	2	17		-	1																												100
97	0	-	0	20		-	0																											2	42	36	20

Total:								0	0	1	3	1	3	3	4	9	18	5	28	1	13	0	6	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0