Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1 to 86.8%

81 points 34 23-13

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Arizona 0 Nashville 4	+1.1		+0.1
St-Louis 2 Colorado 1	-0.2		-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Calgary vs San Jose	-0.9-1.2-0.7+0.3+0.1+1.7		-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Vegas vs Minnesota	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

105	12	0		-	0	In		No	17	65	17												24,040
104	11	0		-	1	In		No	6	64	30												67,456
103	11	1		-	0	In		No	2	55	43												157,107
	10	0		-	2	In		No	1	53	46												95,283
102	10	1		-	1	In		No	0	41	58	0											445,159
	9	0		-	3	In		No	0	38	62	0											80,271
101	9	1		-	2	In		No	0	27	73	0											564,068
	10	2		-	0	In		No	0	29	71	0											564,150	*
100	9	2		-	1	In		No	0	18	82	0	0										1,315,345
	8	1		-	3	In		No	0	16	84	0											442,391	*
99	8	2		-	2	100.0	%	No		10	89	1	0	0	0								1,484,635
	9	3		-	0	100.0		No	0	11	88	1	0	0	0								1,024,770
	7	1		-	4	100.0		No		8	90	2	0	0	0								215,541	*
98	8	3		-	1	100.0		No		5	91	4	0	0	0								2,311,669
	7	2		-	3	100.0		No		4	91	5	0	0	0								983,359
	6	1		-	5	100.0		No		3	90	6	0	0	0								73,090	*
97	7	3		-	2	99.9		No		2	87	11	0	0	0	0							2,292,157
	8	4		-	0	99.9		No		2	89	8	0	0	0	0							1,348,804
	6	2		-	4	99.8		No		2	85	13	0	0	0	0							438,896	*
96	7	4		-	1	99.3		No		1	79	19	0	0	1	0							2,672,634
	6	3		-	3	98.9		No		1	74	23	0	1	1	0							1,305,833
	5	2		-	5	98.4		No		0	70	27	0	1	2	0							124,906	*
95	6	4		-	2	96.3		No		0	61	34	0	1	4	0	0						2,289,255
	7	5		-	0	97.6		No		0	67	30	0	1	2	0	0						1,250,090
	5	3		-	4	94.7		No		0	55	38	0	1	5	0	0						498,465	*
94	6	5		-	1	90.3		No		0	45	44	0	1	9	1	0						2,135,858
	5	4		-	3	86.9		No		0	38	47	0	2	12	1	0	0					1,105,808
	4	3		-	5	83.5		No		0	33	49	0	2	15	2	0						116,957	*
93	5	5		-	2	73.6		No		0	23	49	0	1	22	4	0	0					1,549,228
	6	6		-	0	79.7		No		0	30	49	0	1	18	3	0	0					832,645
	4	4		-	4	67.5		No		0	18	48	0	1	27	6	0	0					348,562	*
92	5	6		-	1	56.5		No		0	12	43	0	1	32	10	1	0					1,203,926
	4	5		-	3	48.7		No		0	9	39	0	1	36	14	1	0					615,444
	3	4		-	5	42.4		No			6	35		1	39	17	2	0					63,823	*
91	4	6		-	2	30.1		No			3	26	0	0	39	26	5	0					718,973
	5	7		-	0	38.2		No			5	32	0	0	37	21	3	0					401,802
	3	5		-	4	23.8		No			2	21		0	39	30	7	0					152,343	*
90	4	7		-	1	16.2		No			1	15		0	34	37	12	1					478,698
	3	6		-	3	11.2		No			1	11		0	31	40	16	2					247,217	*
89	3	7		-	2	4.5		No			0	4		0	20	43	27	5	0				226,489
	4	8		-	0	6.4		No			0	6		0	22	42	25	5					181,416	*
88	3	8		-	1	1.6		No			0	2		0	11	37	38	12	0				132,278
	2	7		-	3	0.7		No			0	1		0	8	34	41	16	0				56,130	*
87	2	8		-	2	0.2		No				0			4	24	45	26	0				86,865	*
86	2	9		-	1	0.0		No				0			1	13	42	43	1				31,054	*
85	2	10		-	0	Out		No							0	6	33	59	3				11,528	*
84	1	10		-	1	Out		No								2	21	70	7				2,935	*
83	1	11		-	0	Out		No								1	11	73	15				817	*
82	0	11		-	1	Out		No									6	71	24				123
81	0	12		-	0	Out		No									2	58	39	0			2,643

Total:						86.8	%	No	0	5	60	21	0	1	8	4	1	0	0	0			32,772,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Winnipeg	Anaheim	Chicago	Nashville	Minnesota	St-Louis	Calgary	Vancouver	Arizona	San Jose	Colorado	Vegas

105		12	0		-	0	7.7	%	3		8	16	29	26	9	5	2	2	0
104		11	0		-	1	7.5		3	0	8	15	24	20	15	9	4	3	0
103		11	1		-	0	7.5		2	0	6	12	20	16	21	13	5	4	0	0
		10	0		-	2	7.5		2	0	6	12	18	15	22	15	5	4	0	0
102		10	1		-	1	7.5		2	0	5	9	14	11	28	19	6	5	0	0
		9	0		-	3	7.6		2	0	5	9	13	10	29	22	6	5	0	0
101		9	1		-	2	7.6		1	0	3	7	9	7	34	25	7	6	0	0
		10	2		-	0	7.5		1	0	3	7	10	8	33	23	7	6	0	0
		8	0		-	4	7.6		1	0	3	6	8	6	36	27	7	6	0	0
100		9	2		-	1	7.5		1	0	2	4	6	5	39	29	8	7	0	0
		8	1		-	3	7.5		1	0	2	4	5	4	40	31	8	6	0	0
		7	0		-	5	7.3		1	0	2	4	4	3	40	33	7	6	0
99		8	2		-	2	7.5		0	0	1	2	3	2	42	33	8	7	0	0
		9	3		-	0	7.5		0	0	1	3	4	3	42	31	9	7	0	0
		7	1		-	4	7.5		0	0	1	2	3	2	43	35	8	6	0	0
98		8	3		-	1	7.5		0	1	1	1	2	1	44	35	8	7	0	0
		7	2		-	3	7.5		0	1	1	1	1	1	44	37	8	6	0	0
		6	1		-	5	7.3		0	1	0	1	1	1	44	39	7	6	0	0
97		7	3		-	2	7.4		0	1	0	1	1	0	45	38	8	6	0	0
		8	4		-	0	7.4		0	1	0	1	1	1	45	36	9	7	0	0
		6	2		-	4	7.3		0	1	0	0	0	0	45	39	7	6	0	0
		5	1		-	6	7.4		0	1	0	0	0	0	44	41	7	5	0
96		7	4		-	1	7.3		0	1	0	0	0	0	45	38	8	6	0	0
		6	3		-	3	7.2		0	1	0	0	0	0	45	39	7	6	0	0
		5	2		-	5	7.3		0	1	0	0	0	0	44	40	7	5	0	0
95		6	4		-	2	7.0		0	1	0	0	0	0	43	38	7	6	0	0
		7	5		-	0	7.1		0	1	0	0	0	0	44	37	8	6	0	0
		5	3		-	4	6.8		1	1	0	0	0	0	42	39	7	5	0	0
		4	2		-	6	6.4		1	1	0	0	0	0	40	39	6	5		0
94		6	5		-	1	6.5		1	1	0	0	0	0	40	35	7	6	0	0
		5	4		-	3	6.2		1	1	0	0	0	0	38	35	6	5	0	0
		4	3		-	5	6.0		1	1	1	0	0	0	37	35	5	4		0
93		5	5		-	2	5.2		1	1	0	0	0	0	33	29	5	4		0
		6	6		-	0	5.6		1	1	0	0	0	0	36	31	6	5		0
		4	4		-	4	4.7		1	1	0	0	0	0	30	28	5	4		0
		3	3		-	6	4.5		1	1	0	0	0		27	28	4	3
92		5	6		-	1	4.0		0	1	0	0	0	0	25	22	4	3		0
		4	5		-	3	3.4		0	0	0	0	0	0	22	20	3	3		0
		3	4		-	5	3.0		0	0	0	0	0		19	18	3	2		0
91		4	6		-	2	2.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	14	12	2	2		0
		5	7		-	0	2.7		0	0	0	0	0	0	17	15	3	2		0
		3	5		-	4	1.6		0	0	0	0	0		11	10	1	1		0
90		4	7		-	1	1.1		0	0	0	0	0		8	7	1	1		0
		3	6		-	3	0.8		0	0	0	0	0		5	5	1	0		0
89		4	8		-	0	0.4		0	0	0	0			3	3	0	0		0
		3	7		-	2	0.3		0	0	0	0	0		2	2	0	0		0
88		3	8		-	1	0.1			0	0	0			1	1	0	0		0
87		3	9		-	0	0.0			0					0	0	0	0		0
86		2	9		-	1	0.0								0	0
81	-85						No

Total:							6.4	%	0.4	0.6	0.7	1.2	1.6	1.3	37.5	31.3	6.7	5.4	0.0	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Arizona 0 Nashville 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary vs San Jose	+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Anaheim vs Detroit	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

105	12	0		-	0		17	0	65	0	13	4	0
104	11	0		-	1		6	0	64	0	16	12	3
103	11	1		-	0		2	0	55	0	13	22	8
	10	0		-	2		1	0	53	0	13	24	9
102	10	1		-	1		0	0	41	0	8	31	20	0	0	0
	9	0		-	3		0	0	38		7	33	22		0	0
101	9	1		-	2		0	0	27		3	32	37		0	0
	10	2		-	0		0	0	29		3	32	35		0	0
100	9	2		-	1		0	0	18		1	27	54	0	0	0	0		0
	8	1		-	3		0	0	16		1	27	56		0	0	0
99	8	2		-	2				10		0	19	70		0	1	0		0	0	0	0
	9	3		-	0		0		11		0	20	68	0	0	1	0		0	0	0	0
	7	1		-	4				8		0	18	72		0	2	0		0	0	0	0
98	8	3		-	1				5		0	11	80		0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
	7	2		-	3				4		0	10	80		0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	6	1		-	5				3		0	10	80		0	5	1		0	0	0	0
97	7	3		-	2				2		0	5	82		0	8	3		0	0	0	0	0
	8	4		-	0				2		0	6	84		0	6	2		0	0	0	0	0
	6	2		-	4				2		0	5	80		0	10	4		0	0	0	0	0
96	7	4		-	1				1		0	2	77		0	11	8	0	0	0	0	1	0
	6	3		-	3				1			2	73		0	13	10		0	0	0	1	0
	5	2		-	5				0			2	69		0	15	12		0	0	1	2	0
95	6	4		-	2				0			1	60		0	14	20		0	0	1	4	0	0
	7	5		-	0				0			1	66		0	13	17		0	0	1	2	0	0
	5	3		-	4				0			0	55		0	15	23	0	0	0	1	5	0	0
94	6	5		-	1				0			0	45		0	12	32		0	0	1	9	1	0	0
	5	4		-	3				0			0	38			12	35		0	0	1	12	1	0	0
	4	3		-	5				0			0	33			12	37		0	0	2	15	2	0
93	5	5		-	2				0			0	23		0	7	41		0	0	1	22	4	0	0
	6	6		-	0				0			0	30			8	41		0	0	1	17	3	0	0
	4	4		-	4				0			0	18			6	41		0	0	1	26	6	0	0
92	5	6		-	1				0			0	12			3	40		0	0	1	30	12	2	0	0
	4	5		-	3				0			0	9			3	36		0	0	1	34	15	2	0	0
	3	4		-	5								6			2	33			0	1	36	18	3	0	0
91	4	6		-	2							0	3			1	26		0	0	0	34	27	8	1	0	0
	5	7		-	0								5			1	31		0	0	0	32	23	6	1	0	0
	3	5		-	4								2			1	21				0	33	31	10	1	0	0
90	4	7		-	1								1			0	15				0	26	36	18	4	0	0
	3	6		-	3								1			0	11				0	24	38	21	5	1	0	0
89	3	7		-	2								0			0	4				0	12	33	33	14	3	0	0
	4	8		-	0								0			0	6				0	13	34	31	13	2	0	0
88	3	8		-	1								0			0	2				0	5	22	35	26	9	1	0
	2	7		-	3								0			0	1				0	4	19	35	29	11	2	0
87	2	8		-	2												0					1	8	26	35	23	6	1	0
86	2	9		-	1												0					0	2	11	30	35	18	4	0	0
85	2	10		-	0																	0	0	3	16	33	33	12	2	0
84	1	10		-	1																			0	5	20	38	27	9	1	0
83	1	11		-	0																			0	1	8	27	39	20	5	0
82	0	11		-	1																					2	11	39	34	13	2
81	0	12		-	0																					0	4	19	41	28	7	0

Total:							0	0	5	0	0	7	53	0	0	7	14	0	0	0	0	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0