Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances

Tied with Minnesota 1-1 (20:00 3rd), playoff odds up 0.3 to 88.7%
30 points   14 10-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Nashville 2 Philadelphia 4 +0.3
Chicago 1 Winnipeg 2 -0.2
Los Angeles 4 Montreal 5 (so)-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Edmonton vs Minnesota+2.1+2.1+1.8-0.5-0.6-3.2
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
+0.5+0.5+0.4-0.2-0.3-0.7
Calgary vs Anaheim*-0.0*-0.1*-0.1-0.2*-0.2+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Arizona+0.2*-0.1*+0.0-0.2*-0.2-0.3
-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0*+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-142In98.4%100772*
120439-4In95.110000409*
119429-5In92.71000769*
118419-6In90.7100001,273*
1174110-5In85.899002,078*
1164111-4In80.499113,397*
1154011-5In74.098115,467*
1143911-6In65.5972108,160*
1133912-5In57.99532012,182*
1123812-6In47.39253017,214*
1113813-5In37.88964024,449*
1103713-6In27.78587033,083*
1093714-5In19.379129044,869*
1083614-6In12.1721612057,995*
1073615-5In6.96320161073,533*
1063515-6In3.35324211091,827*
1053516-5In1.543282720110,387*
1043416-6In0.633313240132,113*
1033417-5In0.1243238600151,792*
1023317-6In0.0163243900172,942*
1013318-5In0.01030471310191,465*
1003218-6In0.0527491820207,860*
993219-5InNo322492430219,810*
983119-6100.0%0.01174730500229,072*
973019-7100.0No0124336800231,737*
963020-699.9No0838421110231,081*
952920-799.8No05314516300224,925*
942921-699.4No03244720510214,702*
932821-798.2No0218462310200200,443*
922822-695.4No112422416400184,332*
912722-790.0No083722239100164,585*
902723-681.2No0530182815300144,597*
892623-768.9No0323132923710123,997*
882624-654.5No01179282913300104,875*
872524-739.2No01115223321610086,680*
862525-625.7No00721632281220070,505*
852425-715.1No0411027331951055,800*
842426-68.1No0205213426102043,178*
832326-74.0No0103143131164032,877*
822327-61.9No010182434237124,461*
812227-70.8No000418323113217,995*
802228-60.3No00211283420412,720*
792229-50.0No01723362679,160*
782129-60.0No004153535116,161*
772130-5OutNo02103039194,218*
762030-6OutNo0162642272,870*
751930-7OutNo041943351,793*
741931-6OutNo021241441,116*
731831-7OutNo01103752688*
721832-6OutNo073162446*
711833-5OutNo43264235*
701733-6OutNo32176145*
691633-7OutNo2178183*
681533-8OutNo138745*
671635-5OutNo69418*
661636-4OutNo89212*
30-65OutNo100342*
Total:88.7%1.9%12132623865321003,989,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupSan JoseMinnesotaChicagoAnaheimSt. LouisNashvilleLos AngelesWinnipegDallasCalgaryArizonaVancouverColorado
142560-010.9%58567131213138443
131494-3NoYes
127487-1No333333
126466-4No17331733
125456-5No1717331717
124457-414.3411111171411771144
123447-57.7844448236196844
122448-48.34895715131356583
121438-513.0557881512777477
120439-411.254571011141278565
119429-58.63778710121299654
118419-67.95558913141288553
1174110-59.155599121212107553
1164111-48.45668912121388654
1154011-58.85658812121298663
1143911-68.85568912121397564
1133912-58.75669911131287553
1123812-69.25669911131287653
1113813-58.766610911131288553
1103713-68.765611911131187553
1093714-58.775611911141177553
1083614-68.675513811151076553
1073615-58.69551481015966542
1063515-68.310551671017966442
1053516-58.11155187917855442
1043416-67.91345206818745432
1033417-57.91544226719645331
1023317-67.71744255620534331
1013318-57.51933274621424331
1003218-67.22133284522324321
993219-57.12233303423314221
983119-67.02333313323213220
973019-76.92433313323113220
963020-66.72433313323113220
952920-76.62544313222103220
942921-66.52555303221103220
932821-76.22566284320103220
922822-66.02477264318002220
912722-75.72388234315002110
902723-65.12198195313002110
892623-74.21887164310001110
882624-63.4157612327001110
872625-52.511658325000000
862525-61.57435213000000
852526-51.04223112000000
842426-60.5211210100000
832427-50.211010000000
822327-60.110000000000
812227-70.000000000
802329-40.00000000
792431-1No0
782129-6No00
30-77No
Total:6.3%18.44.44.322.84.14.317.52.71.73.32.32.30.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Minnesota-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.9
Calgary vs Anaheim-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
MondayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-142100
123447-5982
122448-4982
121438-5964
120439-495400
119429-59370
118419-691900
1174110-5861400
1164111-4801811
1154011-57424101
1143911-6663120100
1133912-5583730200
1123812-6474550300
1113813-53852614000
1103713-62857716100
1093714-5196010271000
1083614-6126012410300
1073615-57561371150100
1063515-6350141013810100
1053516-514213151213102000
1043416-6133112011192030000
1033417-502492392440410000
1023317-601662662971630000
1013318-5010426331937600100
1003218-605224130116710101000
993219-53121025121261520210
983119-60101601910184214132000
973019-700120138232257244000
963020-600808525126106471000
952920-700542250231011412210000
942921-60032122018919317331000
932821-70210170137261223610000
922822-610012084310233132110000
912722-70008423102222133210000
902723-600052128018127355420000
892623-7000310220130292588621000
882624-600100179028138121273100
872524-7010011502201512161583100
862525-60007216002716201683100
852425-700041100014111923178200
842426-602050015142324167200
832326-701030027172524155100
822327-60101002919272312410
812227-7000001412232720920
802228-60000161627261761
792229-500039222925112
782129-600014132732184
772130-500182134278
762030-601316323315
751930-7019273924
741931-615194135
731831-703134142
721832-62103653
711833-5063657
701733-642670
691633-742076
681533-81882
671635-51189
661636-4892
30-65100
Total:2103102114102939171601111111110000