Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Lost to St-Louis 1-2, playoff odds down 4.3 to 2%
75 points   35 30-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
St-Louis 2 Colorado 1 -4.0
-0.1
Arizona 0 Nashville 4 -0.2
Winnipeg 1 Chicago 4 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Colorado vs Nashville+1.0+0.9+0.8-0.6-0.6-1.3
Vegas vs Minnesota+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Calgary vs San Jose-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
99120-087.5%No1836421212,701
98110-170.9No02185129035,705
97111-052.7No00944470140,462*
96101-134.8No03326500323,266*
9591-220.0No01197820386,766
102-021.8No01217720347,960*
9492-110.9No001182700903,873
81-39.7No0982800350,979*
9382-24.3No047619101,170,328
93-05.0No05771710703,119
71-43.8No04752020196,028*
9283-11.5No026033501,821,294
72-31.3No01583560890,033
61-51.2No156366077,272*
9173-20.3No0036471512,079,885
84-00.4No0040461311,061,024
62-40.2No03547162463,944*
9074-10.1No0019482842,425,997
63-30.0No0174730501,375,994
52-50.0No01646316153,498*
8964-20.0No0737431302,406,700
75-00.0No0840411101,132,201
53-40.0No063644150615,908*
8865-10.0No0224482502,247,562
54-30.0No0222482801,359,127
43-5OutNo22148290167,992*
8755-2OutNo012444401,897,526
66-0OutNo01446400875,230
44-4OutNo01043460504,815*
8656-1OutNo05355911,476,605
45-3OutNo0433621889,798*
34-5OutNo04316310105,262
8546-2OutNo022174301,032,202
57-0OutNo0224722493,020
35-4OutNo0120754261,093*
8447-1OutNo00128070690,106
36-3OutNo0118090424,661*
8337-2OutNo0578170382,885
48-0OutNo0679140201,291
26-4OutNo047619082,848*
8238-1OutNo0271270222,853
27-3OutNo0267310114,138*
8128-2OutNo015643092,529
39-0OutNo015841072,994*
8029-1OutNo04158265,865*
7919-2OutNo027694025,157*
78110-1OutNo01576907,348*
77111-0OutNo7751702,096*
76011-1OutNo461332318
75012-0OutNo1524252,678
Total:2.0%No00022324252420032,772,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWinnipegAnaheimChicagoNashvilleMinnesotaSt-LouisEdmontonCalgaryVancouverArizonaSan Jose
99120-02.3%283397513000
98110-11.731218530100
97111-01.32614742010000
100-21.324138420100
96101-10.918763100000
90-30.81676310000
9591-20.510442100000
102-00.511442100000
80-40.4934210000
9492-10.3522100000
81-30.2422100000
70-50.2412100
9382-20.12110000
93-00.1211000000
71-40.12110000
60-60.111100
9283-10.010000000
72-30.01000000
61-50.000000
50-70.11000
9173-20.0000000
84-00.00000000
62-40.000000
51-60.000000
40-8No
9074-10.0000000
63-30.0000000
52-50.000000
41-7No0
30-9No
8964-20.000000
75-00.000000
53-4No0000
42-6No
31-8No
20-10No
8865-10.00000
54-3No000
43-5No
32-7No
21-9No
75-87No
Total:0.0%0.90.40.40.20.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
St-Louis 2 Colorado 1 +0.5
Arizona 0 Nashville 4 -0.1
Buffalo 2 Toronto 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs Nashville-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
Calgary vs San Jose-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
99120-0100800135212112
98110-100200181734290
97111-000000091034470
96101-1000034286500
9591-20011187820
102-000012207620
9492-1000001081800
81-3009819000
9382-20047420200
93-00057518200
71-40047321200
9283-10025635710
72-30015437810
61-5015237810
9173-2000314519300
84-0000344518300
62-400304621400
9074-100014413310100
63-3013403411100
52-501239351220
8964-204254024600
75-005284022500
53-404244026710
8865-10112333616200
54-30110323718300
43-5110303719300
8755-20318373110100
66-0042037309100
44-40316363311100
8656-1017253923500
45-3016243924610
34-5005223926710
8546-200111323616300
57-00212333515200
35-4019303718300
8447-10031837311010
36-300316373211100
8337-20006243925500
48-0017263923400
26-4005233927600
8238-10011133381520
27-3011031391720
8128-2003174032810
39-000319412970
8029-101628412130
7919-2021438361000
78110-10426452320
77111-0114394070
76011-152846201
75012-011550304
Total:0000000002211918151174210000