Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Lost to Vancouver 2-3 (ot), playoff odds down 1 to 2%

110 points 24-16 31-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 2 Vancouver 3 (ot)	-1.3		-0.1
Los Angeles 2 Boston 4	+0.5
Dallas 4 Calgary 1	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Phoenix vs St. Louis	-0.5-0.3-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.5
Anaheim vs Boston			-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

125	5	-	0	0		-	0	77.9	%						0	33	45	21	2	0					9,973
124	4	-	1	0		-	0	53.6								15	39	38	8	0					15,889
123	4	-	0	0		-	1	28.8								4	24	46	23	2					20,015
	3	-	2	0		-	0	29.9								5	25	46	22	2					10,396
122	4	-	0	1		-	0	11.7								1	11	40	40	8	0				61,202
	3	-	1	0		-	1	11.7								1	11	40	40	8	0				25,672
	2	-	3	0		-	0	11.8								1	11	39	41	8					3,302
121	3	-	1	1		-	0	3.1								0	3	24	51	21	0				79,385
	3	-	0	0		-	2	3.3								0	3	25	51	21	0				15,433
	2	-	2	0		-	1	3.2								0	3	25	51	21	0				12,942	*
120	3	-	0	1		-	1	0.7								0	1	11	48	40	0				94,878
	2	-	2	1		-	0	0.6								0	1	11	49	39	0				38,156
	2	-	1	0		-	2	0.7								0	1	11	49	39	0				15,106
	1	-	3	0		-	1	0.5									0	12	48	40	0				2,700	*
119	3	-	0	2		-	0	0.1									0	4	37	58	1				147,511
	2	-	1	1		-	1	0.1									0	4	36	59	1				92,895
	1	-	3	1		-	0	0.1									0	4	35	60	1				8,278
	2	-	0	0		-	3	0.1									0	3	35	60	1				5,768
	1	-	2	0		-	2	0.1									0	4	34	61	1				5,134	*
118	2	-	1	2		-	0	0.0									0	1	21	75	3				143,400
	2	-	0	1		-	2	0.0									0	1	21	75	3				52,999
	1	-	2	1		-	1	0.0									0	1	21	75	3				29,714
	1	-	1	0		-	3	Out										1	20	76	3				3,695
	0	-	4	1		-	0	Out										0	19	78	3				1,167	*
117	2	-	0	2		-	1	Out										0	11	83	6	0			164,040
	1	-	2	2		-	0	Out										0	11	83	6	0			46,265
	1	-	1	1		-	2	Out										0	10	84	6				34,169
	0	-	3	1		-	1	Out										0	10	84	7				3,163
	1	-	0	0		-	4	Out											9	85	6				1,013
	0	-	2	0		-	3	Out											8	83	9				603
116	2	-	0	3		-	0	Out										0	5	84	11	0			170,288
	1	-	1	2		-	1	Out										0	4	85	11	0			105,810
	1	-	0	1		-	3	Out										0	4	85	12				12,220
	0	-	2	1		-	2	Out										0	3	86	11				5,548
	0	-	3	2		-	0	Out											4	85	11				5,360	*
115	1	-	1	3		-	0	Out											1	81	18	0			109,090
	1	-	0	2		-	2	Out											1	81	18	0			57,492
	0	-	2	2		-	1	Out											1	81	18	0			16,995
	0	-	1	1		-	3	Out											1	82	18	0			3,953	*
114	1	-	0	3		-	1	Out											0	73	26	0			118,039
	0	-	1	2		-	2	Out											0	73	27	0			18,339
	0	-	2	3		-	0	Out											0	73	26	0			17,283
	0	-	0	1		-	4	Out												74	26	0			903
113	1	-	0	4		-	0	Out											0	64	36	0			91,987
	0	-	1	3		-	1	Out												63	37	0			37,912
	0	-	0	2		-	3	Out												63	36	0			6,076
112	0	-	1	4		-	0	Out												52	48	0			29,601
	0	-	0	3		-	2	Out												53	47	0			18,715
111	0	-	0	4		-	1	Out												40	59	1	0		29,020
110	0	-	0	5		-	0	Out												30	67	3	0		18,072

Total:								2.0	%						0	0	2	6	18	63	12	0	0		2,017,566

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 2 Vancouver 3 (ot)	+0.2
Buffalo 3 Minnesota 1	+0.1
Nashville 3 Winnipeg 1	-0.1
Detroit 5 Carolina 4	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Boston	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Washington vs Minnesota	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

125	5	-	0	0		-	0											0	0	27	6	44	0	21	2	0
124	4	-	1	0		-	0													10	5	38	1	38	8	0
123	4	-	0	0		-	1													2	2	23	2	46	22	2	0
	3	-	2	0		-	0													3	2	23	2	47	22	2	0
122	4	-	0	1		-	0													0	1	9	2	40	40	8	0	0
	3	-	1	0		-	1													0	1	9	2	40	40	9	0
	2	-	3	0		-	0													0	1	9	2	39	40	9	0
121	3	-	1	1		-	0													0	0	2	1	24	50	22	1	0	0
	3	-	0	0		-	2													0	0	2	1	24	50	22	1	0
	2	-	2	0		-	1													0	0	2	1	24	49	22	1	0
120	3	-	0	1		-	1														0	0	0	10	44	40	5	0
	2	-	2	1		-	0														0	0	0	10	45	39	5	0	0
	2	-	1	0		-	2													0	0	0	0	10	45	39	5	0	0
	1	-	3	0		-	1															0	0	11	43	41	5	0
119	3	-	0	2		-	0															0	0	3	29	51	15	2	0
	2	-	1	1		-	1															0	0	3	28	52	15	2	0
	1	-	3	1		-	0															0	0	3	28	52	15	2
	2	-	0	0		-	3																0	2	28	52	15	2	0
	1	-	2	0		-	2															0	0	3	27	53	15	2	0
118	2	-	1	2		-	0															0	0	1	13	51	29	7	0	0
	2	-	0	1		-	2															0	0	1	12	51	29	7	0	0
	1	-	2	1		-	1																0	0	13	51	29	7	0	0
	1	-	1	0		-	3																	0	12	51	29	7	0
	0	-	4	1		-	0																	0	11	51	30	8	0
117	2	-	0	2		-	1																	0	4	38	40	16	1	0
	1	-	2	2		-	0																	0	4	38	40	16	1	0
	1	-	1	1		-	2																	0	4	38	41	16	1	0
	0	-	3	1		-	1																	0	4	37	41	17	1
	1	-	0	0		-	4																		4	38	42	15	1
	0	-	2	0		-	3																		4	39	41	15	2
116	2	-	0	3		-	0																	0	1	22	43	30	4	0	0
	1	-	1	2		-	1																	0	1	21	43	30	4	0
	1	-	0	1		-	3																		1	22	43	30	4	0
	0	-	2	1		-	2																	0	1	21	44	30	5	0
	0	-	3	2		-	0																		1	21	43	30	4	0
115	1	-	1	3		-	0																		0	9	36	43	11	1	0
	1	-	0	2		-	2																		0	9	36	43	11	1	0
	0	-	2	2		-	1																		0	10	37	42	11	1	0
	0	-	1	1		-	3																		0	10	37	43	10	1
114	1	-	0	3		-	1																		0	3	23	49	22	3	0	0
	0	-	1	2		-	2																		0	3	23	48	22	3	0
	0	-	2	3		-	0																		0	3	23	49	22	3	0
	0	-	0	1		-	4																			3	23	47	25	2
113	1	-	0	4		-	0																		0	1	11	44	34	8	1	0
	0	-	1	3		-	1																			1	11	44	35	9	1	0
	0	-	0	2		-	3																			1	12	43	35	9	1	0
112	0	-	1	4		-	0																			0	4	31	43	19	3	0
	0	-	0	3		-	2																			0	4	32	43	19	3	0
111	0	-	0	4		-	1																			0	1	17	41	32	8	1	0
110	0	-	0	5		-	0																				0	7	32	41	18	3	0	0

Total:																		0	0	0	0	1	0	5	14	26	23	19	8	2	0	0	0	0