San Jose Sharks Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat Phoenix 4-3 (so), playoff odds up 5.2 to 62.7%

114 points 28-10 27-10

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
San Jose 4 Phoenix 3 (so)	+3.1		+0.2
Los Angeles 2 Boston 4	+2.0		+0.2
Dallas 4 Calgary 1	-0.5		-0.1
Colorado 2 Vancouver 3 (ot)	*+0.4		+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Phoenix vs St. Louis	-3.8-1.5-1.8*+0.4+0.5+3.3		-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

135	7	-	0	0		-	0	In			0	100													2,467
134	6	-	1	0		-	0	In			0	100													5,105
133	6	-	0	0		-	1	In			0	100			0	0									10,278	*
132	6	-	0	1		-	0	In				99			0	1									29,101	*
131	5	-	1	1		-	0	In				96			1	3	0								31,657
	4	-	2	0		-	1	In				98			0	2	0								14,201	*
130	5	-	0	1		-	1	In				90			1	9	0								31,359
	4	-	2	1		-	0	In				91			1	8	0								36,875	*
129	4	-	1	1		-	1	100.0	%			79			1	19	1	0							50,854
	5	-	0	2		-	0	100.0				76			1	22	1	0							48,785
	3	-	3	1		-	0	100.0				81			1	18	1	0							19,546	*
128	4	-	1	2		-	0	99.8				59			1	35	5	0							78,308
	3	-	2	1		-	1	99.8				63			1	32	4	0							40,515	*
	4	-	0	1		-	2	99.8				61			1	33	5	0	0						24,920
127	4	-	0	2		-	1	98.7				38			0	46	15	1	0						77,214
	3	-	2	2		-	0	98.8				40			0	45	14	1	0						50,932
	3	-	1	1		-	2	98.8				41			0	44	14	1	0						32,416
	2	-	3	1		-	1	98.8				43			0	43	13	1	0						13,730	*
126	3	-	1	2		-	1	94.4				21			0	44	29	5	0						99,926
	4	-	0	3		-	0	94.5				20			0	45	30	5	0						79,994
	2	-	3	2		-	0	94.9				23			0	45	27	5	0						16,570
	2	-	2	1		-	2	94.2				23			0	44	28	6	0						29,117	*
125	3	-	1	3		-	0	84.1				9			0	34	42	15	1						103,811
	2	-	2	2		-	1	83.4				9			0	33	41	16	1						48,434
	3	-	0	2		-	2	83.9				9			0	34	41	15	1						48,429
	2	-	1	1		-	3	83.6				9			0	33	41	16	1						16,812	*
124	3	-	0	3		-	1	65.0				3				18	44	32	3	0					99,744
	2	-	2	3		-	0	65.2				3				18	44	32	3	0					49,859
	2	-	1	2		-	2	64.1				3				18	43	33	3	0					46,926
	1	-	3	2		-	1	64.9				3				18	44	32	3						16,501	*
123	2	-	1	3		-	1	40.8				1				7	34	49	10	0					96,964
	3	-	0	4		-	0	41.5				1				7	34	49	9	0					77,826
	1	-	2	2		-	2	39.9				1				6	33	50	10	0					15,023
	2	-	0	2		-	3	40.4				1				6	34	50	10	0					28,403	*
122	2	-	1	4		-	0	21.1				0				2	19	57	21	0	0				75,293
	2	-	0	3		-	2	20.6				0				2	19	57	21	0					46,121
	1	-	2	3		-	1	19.5				0				2	18	58	22	0					43,581	*
121	2	-	0	4		-	1	7.2				0				0	7	52	39	3	0				71,082
	1	-	1	3		-	2	6.9				0				0	7	52	39	2	0				29,859
	1	-	2	4		-	0	6.9				0				0	7	52	39	2	0				31,489	*
120	1	-	1	4		-	1	1.7								0	2	36	54	8	0				46,161
	2	-	0	5		-	0	1.9								0	2	36	53	8	0				44,532
	1	-	0	3		-	3	1.5								0	2	36	55	8	0				17,439	*
119	1	-	1	5		-	0	0.3									0	21	60	18	1				28,874
	1	-	0	4		-	2	0.2									0	20	60	18	1				32,115	*
118	1	-	0	5		-	1	0.0									0	8	53	35	3				39,237	*
117	1	-	0	6		-	0	Out										3	39	50	9	0			24,349	*
116	0	-	1	6		-	0	Out										0	22	59	19	0			8,537	*
115	0	-	0	6		-	1	Out										0	9	57	34				4,233
114	0	-	0	7		-	0	Out											2	49	48	0			2,062

Total:								62.7	%		0	24			0	19	20	22	12	3	0	0			2,017,566

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Los Angeles 2 Boston 4	-0.3
San Jose 4 Phoenix 3 (so)	-0.3
Dallas 4 Calgary 1	+0.1
Colorado 2 Vancouver 3 (ot)	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phoenix vs St. Louis	+0.4+0.1+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

135	7	-	0	0		-	0			0	0	98	2
134	6	-	1	0		-	0			0		95	5
133	6	-	0	0		-	1			0	0	91	9					0		0
132	6	-	0	1		-	0					84	15					0	0	1
131	5	-	1	1		-	0					74	23					0	0	3		0
	4	-	2	0		-	1					74	23					0	0	2		0
130	5	-	0	1		-	1					60	30					0	0	9	0	0
	4	-	2	1		-	0					61	30					0	0	8	0	0
129	4	-	1	1		-	1					44	35					0	0	19	0	1		0
	5	-	0	2		-	0					43	33					0	0	22	0	1		0
	3	-	3	1		-	0					46	35					0	0	18	0	1		0
128	4	-	1	2		-	0					26	33					0	0	34	1	5	0	0
	3	-	2	1		-	1					28	35					0	0	31	1	4		0
	4	-	0	1		-	2					27	34					0	0	33	1	5		0	0
127	4	-	0	2		-	1					13	25					0	0	43	3	15	0	1	0
	3	-	2	2		-	0					14	26					0	0	42	3	14	0	1	0
	3	-	1	1		-	2					14	27					0	0	41	3	14	0	1	0
	2	-	3	1		-	1					14	29					0	0	40	3	13	0	1	0
126	3	-	1	2		-	1					5	16					0	0	38	6	28	0	5	0
	4	-	0	3		-	0					5	15					0	0	38	7	29	0	5	0
	2	-	3	2		-	0					5	17					0	0	38	7	27	0	5	0
	2	-	2	1		-	2					5	17						0	38	6	28	0	6	0
125	3	-	1	3		-	0					1	7					0	0	25	9	41	1	15	1
	2	-	2	2		-	1					1	8					0	0	25	9	40	1	16	1
	3	-	0	2		-	2					1	8					0	0	25	9	41	1	15	1
	2	-	1	1		-	3					1	8						0	24	9	40	1	16	1
124	3	-	0	3		-	1					0	2							11	8	42	3	32	3	0
	2	-	2	3		-	0					0	2							11	8	42	2	32	3	0
	2	-	1	2		-	2					0	3							10	7	41	2	33	3	0
	1	-	3	2		-	1					0	3							11	8	41	3	32	3
123	2	-	1	3		-	1					0	1							3	4	29	5	49	10	0
	3	-	0	4		-	0					0	1							3	4	30	5	48	10	0
	1	-	2	2		-	2					0	1							3	4	28	4	50	10	0
	2	-	0	2		-	3					0	0							3	4	29	4	50	10	0
122	2	-	1	4		-	0						0							0	1	14	5	56	23	1	0
	2	-	0	3		-	2					0	0							0	1	14	5	56	23	1	0
	1	-	2	3		-	1					0	0							0	1	13	5	56	23	1	0
121	2	-	0	4		-	1						0							0	0	4	3	48	39	5	0	0
	1	-	1	3		-	2						0							0	0	4	3	48	40	5	0
	1	-	2	4		-	0						0							0	0	4	3	49	39	5	0	0
120	1	-	1	4		-	1														0	1	1	31	51	15	2	0	0
	2	-	0	5		-	0														0	1	1	31	51	14	2	0	0
	1	-	0	3		-	3														0	1	1	31	52	14	1	0
119	1	-	1	5		-	0															0	0	15	48	28	7	1	0
	1	-	0	4		-	2															0	0	14	49	29	7	1	0
118	1	-	0	5		-	1																0	5	32	40	19	4	0	0
117	1	-	0	6		-	0																	1	15	37	33	12	2	0
116	0	-	1	6		-	0																	0	5	23	39	26	7	0	0
115	0	-	0	6		-	1																	0	1	10	31	39	17	2	0
114	0	-	0	7		-	0																		0	2	18	41	31	7	0

Total:										0	0	12	11					0	0	16	3	18	2	21	11	3	1	0	0	0	0