Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Lost to Detroit 4-5, playoff odds down 1.8 to 0.6%

102 points 27-3 31-15

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit 5 Carolina 4	-1.5		-0.3
Ottawa 8 Pittsburgh 4	-0.6
Buffalo 3 Minnesota 1	-0.3		-0.1
Nashville 3 Winnipeg 1	+0.3		+0.1
Philadelphia 4 Montreal 1			+0.0
Toronto 3 NY Rangers 4 (so)			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Minnesota	-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.4

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

120	6	-	0	0		-	0	51.6	%			1			0	11	40	41	7	0					4,405
119	5	-	1	0		-	0	31.5				0				4	27	51	17	1					8,218
118	5	-	0	0		-	1	14.7				0				1	14	50	31	4					15,752	*
117	5	-	0	1		-	0	6.0				0				0	6	39	45	10	0				28,896
	4	-	1	0		-	1	5.4								0	5	40	44	11					17,698	*
116	4	-	1	1		-	0	1.8								0	2	26	51	21	0				46,153
	3	-	2	0		-	1	1.5								0	1	26	51	21	0				9,675
	4	-	0	0		-	2	1.7								0	2	26	51	22	0				9,077	*
115	4	-	0	1		-	1	0.4									0	13	49	36	1	0			51,836
	3	-	2	1		-	0	0.4								0	0	13	49	37	1				30,054
	3	-	1	0		-	2	0.4									0	13	48	38	0				14,081	*
114	4	-	0	2		-	0	0.1									0	6	39	52	3	0			80,108
	3	-	1	1		-	1	0.0									0	6	39	53	2	0			67,245
	2	-	3	1		-	0	0.1									0	6	38	54	2	0			19,389	*
113	3	-	1	2		-	0	0.0									0	2	26	64	8	0	0		103,990
	3	-	0	1		-	2	0.0									0	2	26	65	7	0			36,592
	2	-	2	1		-	1	0.0									0	2	25	66	7	0			38,998	*
112	3	-	0	2		-	1	Out										0	14	67	18	1	0		114,632
	2	-	2	2		-	0	Out										0	13	68	18	1	0		49,992
	2	-	1	1		-	2	Out										0	13	70	16	1			35,998
	1	-	3	1		-	1	Out										0	12	72	15	1			9,415	*
111	3	-	0	3		-	0	Out										0	6	59	33	3	0		118,452
	2	-	1	2		-	1	Out										0	5	61	31	2	0		110,994
	2	-	0	1		-	3	Out										0	5	64	29	2	0		12,936
	1	-	2	1		-	2	Out										0	5	64	29	2			12,958	*
	1	-	3	2		-	0	Out										0	5	62	31	3	0		10,959
110	2	-	1	3		-	0	Out										0	2	46	45	7	0		114,217
	2	-	0	2		-	2	Out										0	2	47	45	6	0		60,086
	1	-	2	2		-	1	Out										0	2	48	44	6	0		35,527
	1	-	1	1		-	3	Out										0	1	49	44	6	0		10,640	*
109	2	-	0	3		-	1	Out											0	29	54	15	1	0	124,522
	1	-	1	2		-	2	Out											0	31	54	15	1		38,808
	1	-	2	3		-	0	Out											0	29	55	16	1	0	37,079
	0	-	3	2		-	1	Out											0	30	54	15	1		7,467	*
108	2	-	0	4		-	0	Out											0	15	54	28	2	0	96,452
	1	-	1	3		-	1	Out											0	16	55	27	2	0	80,494
	1	-	0	2		-	3	Out											0	17	55	26	2	0	13,929
	0	-	2	2		-	2	Out											0	17	54	27	2	0	11,163	*
107	1	-	1	4		-	0	Out											0	7	45	41	6	0	62,688
	1	-	0	3		-	2	Out											0	6	46	41	7	0	42,834
	0	-	2	3		-	1	Out												6	46	41	7	0	17,202	*
106	1	-	0	4		-	1	Out												2	31	51	15	1	66,701
	0	-	1	3		-	2	Out												2	31	51	15	1	13,960
	0	-	2	4		-	0	Out												2	30	52	15	1	11,266	*
105	1	-	0	5		-	0	Out												0	17	51	27	4	41,401
	0	-	1	4		-	1	Out												0	17	51	28	4	26,368	*
104	0	-	1	5		-	0	Out												0	7	41	41	11	13,399
	0	-	0	4		-	2	Out												0	7	42	41	11	11,281
103	0	-	0	5		-	1	Out													3	29	48	20	14,263
102	0	-	0	6		-	0	Out													1	16	49	35	7,316

Total:								0.6	%			0			0	0	1	4	13	38	28	13	3	1	2,017,566

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 5 Carolina 4	+0.5
Nashville 3 Winnipeg 1	-0.1
Buffalo 3 Minnesota 1	+0.0
Philadelphia 4 Montreal 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Boston	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	6	-	0	0		-	0						1						0		11	0	40	3	17	21	7	1	0
119	5	-	1	0		-	0						0								4		27	1	11	32	21	4	0	0
118	5	-	0	0		-	1						0								1		14	0	5	30	35	14	2	0
	4	-	2	0		-	0														1		14	0	5	29	36	14	2	0
117	5	-	0	1		-	0						0								0		6	0	1	18	39	28	7	0
	4	-	1	0		-	1														0		5	0	2	19	39	28	7	1
116	4	-	1	1		-	0														0		2		0	8	30	40	18	2	0
	3	-	2	0		-	1														0		1		0	7	31	40	18	2	0
	4	-	0	0		-	2														0		2		0	7	30	40	19	2	0
115	4	-	0	1		-	1																0		0	2	16	40	34	7	0
	3	-	2	1		-	0														0		0		0	2	16	39	34	8	0
	3	-	1	0		-	2																0		0	2	16	40	34	8	0
114	4	-	0	2		-	0																0			0	7	30	44	17	1	0
	3	-	1	1		-	1																0			0	7	30	44	18	1	0
	2	-	3	1		-	0																0		0	0	7	30	45	17	1	0
113	3	-	1	2		-	0																0			0	2	16	46	32	4	0
	3	-	0	1		-	2																0			0	2	16	47	32	3	0
	2	-	2	1		-	1																0			0	2	16	47	32	3	0
112	3	-	0	2		-	1																			0	0	7	36	46	11	0	0
	2	-	2	2		-	0																			0	0	6	36	46	11	0	0
	2	-	1	1		-	2																			0	0	6	37	47	10	0	0
	1	-	3	1		-	1																				0	6	37	48	9	0	0
111	3	-	0	3		-	0																				0	2	22	50	24	2	0
	2	-	1	2		-	1																				0	2	23	51	22	2	0
	2	-	0	1		-	3																			0	0	2	24	52	21	2	0
	1	-	2	1		-	2																				0	2	23	52	21	2	0
	1	-	3	2		-	0																				0	2	22	51	22	2	0
110	2	-	1	3		-	0																				0	0	11	45	37	6	0	0
	2	-	0	2		-	2																					0	11	45	37	6	0	0
	1	-	2	2		-	1																					0	12	46	36	6	0
	1	-	1	1		-	3																					0	11	47	36	6	0
109	2	-	0	3		-	1																					0	4	31	48	16	1	0
	1	-	1	2		-	2																					0	4	32	48	15	1	0
	1	-	2	3		-	0																					0	4	30	49	16	1	0
108	2	-	0	4		-	0																					0	1	16	48	29	5	0	0
	1	-	1	3		-	1																					0	1	17	48	28	5	0	0
	1	-	0	2		-	3																					0	1	18	49	27	5	0	0
	0	-	2	2		-	2																						1	17	49	28	5	0
107	1	-	1	4		-	0																					0	0	7	38	40	13	2	0
	1	-	0	3		-	2																						0	7	39	40	12	2	0	0
	0	-	2	3		-	1																						0	7	39	40	13	2	0	0
106	1	-	0	4		-	1																						0	2	23	44	24	6	1	0
	0	-	1	3		-	2																						0	2	23	44	24	6	1	0
	0	-	2	4		-	0																							2	23	45	25	6	0	0
105	1	-	0	5		-	0																						0	0	10	37	35	14	3	0
	0	-	1	4		-	1																							0	10	36	35	15	3	0
104	0	-	1	5		-	0																							0	4	23	38	27	8	1
	0	-	0	4		-	2																							0	3	22	38	27	8	1
103	0	-	0	5		-	1																								1	11	31	36	18	3
102	0	-	0	6		-	0																								0	4	20	37	31	9

Total:													0						0		0	0	1	0	0	1	4	9	19	27	22	12	4	2	0	0