Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Lost to Dallas 1-4, playoff odds down 12.8 to 21%

112 points 29-5 27-15

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dallas 4 Calgary 1	-14.3		-0.5
Los Angeles 2 Boston 4	+2.5		+0.1
San Jose 4 Phoenix 3 (so)	*-0.3
Colorado 2 Vancouver 3 (ot)	*+0.3		+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Phoenix vs St. Louis	-3.7-1.9-1.6+0.6+0.5+3.2		-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

130	6	-	0	0		-	0	In							4	96	1								4,425
129	5	-	1	0		-	0	100.0	%						2	95	4	0							8,218
128	5	-	0	0		-	1	99.6							1	89	10	0							16,145	*
127	5	-	0	1		-	0	97.9							0	76	22	2	0						29,437
	4	-	1	0		-	1	97.8							0	76	22	2	0						18,273	*
126	4	-	1	1		-	0	91.2							0	54	37	8	0						47,566
	3	-	2	0		-	1	90.5							0	54	37	9	0						10,009
	4	-	0	0		-	2	91.1							0	56	35	9	0						9,352	*
125	4	-	0	1		-	1	76.5							0	32	44	21	2						53,528
	3	-	2	1		-	0	76.8							0	32	44	21	2						30,504
	3	-	1	0		-	2	75.9							0	31	44	22	2						14,277	*
124	4	-	0	2		-	0	57.2								16	41	35	8	0					82,414
	3	-	1	1		-	1	56.3								16	41	36	8	0					68,543
	2	-	3	1		-	0	55.7								15	41	36	9						9,999
	2	-	2	0		-	2	54.7								15	40	37	9						9,805	*
123	3	-	1	2		-	0	33.2								6	28	46	21	0					107,054
	3	-	0	1		-	2	31.9								5	27	46	22	0					37,389
	2	-	2	1		-	1	32.3								5	27	47	21	0					39,685	*
122	3	-	0	2		-	1	15.9								1	14	45	38	1					115,556
	2	-	2	2		-	0	16.1								1	15	45	38	1	0				51,175
	2	-	1	1		-	2	15.2								1	14	44	40	1					36,334
	1	-	3	1		-	1	15.3								1	14	45	39	1					9,412	*
121	3	-	0	3		-	0	6.4								0	6	35	55	4	0				120,148
	2	-	1	2		-	1	6.0								0	6	35	56	4	0				111,954
	2	-	0	1		-	3	5.9								0	6	34	57	3					12,662
	1	-	2	1		-	2	5.5								0	5	35	57	3					13,127	*
	1	-	3	2		-	0	5.9								0	6	35	56	3	0				11,048
120	2	-	1	3		-	0	1.6								0	2	21	68	10	0				115,980
	2	-	0	2		-	2	1.5								0	1	20	68	10	0				58,915
	1	-	2	2		-	1	1.6								0	2	20	69	10	0				36,187
	1	-	1	1		-	3	1.3								0	1	19	69	10	0				10,668	*
119	2	-	0	3		-	1	0.4								0	0	10	68	21	1				122,181
	1	-	1	2		-	2	0.3									0	9	68	22	1				45,676	*
	1	-	2	3		-	0	0.4								0	0	10	68	21	1				37,246
118	2	-	0	4		-	0	0.1									0	4	55	39	3				95,391
	1	-	1	3		-	1	0.0									0	3	56	38	3				79,393
	1	-	0	2		-	3	0.1									0	3	57	37	3				13,204
	0	-	2	2		-	2	0.0									0	3	57	37	3				11,017	*
117	1	-	1	4		-	0	0.0									0	1	41	51	7				61,725
	1	-	0	3		-	2	Out										1	39	52	8				41,052
	0	-	2	3		-	1	Out										1	40	52	7				17,096	*
116	1	-	0	4		-	1	Out										0	25	59	16	0			63,325
	0	-	1	3		-	2	Out										0	23	59	17				12,999
	0	-	2	4		-	0	Out										0	25	60	15				10,986	*
115	1	-	0	5		-	0	Out										0	10	59	31	0			39,134
	0	-	1	4		-	1	Out										0	11	58	31	0			24,953	*
114	0	-	1	5		-	0	Out											4	50	46	0			12,654
	0	-	0	4		-	2	Out											3	49	48	0			10,290
113	0	-	0	5		-	1	Out											1	36	62	0			12,715
112	0	-	0	6		-	0	Out												21	79	1			6,740

Total:								21.0	%						0	8	12	22	38	16	4	0			2,017,566

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas 4 Calgary 1	+0.8
Los Angeles 2 Boston 4	-0.1
Colorado 2 Vancouver 3 (ot)	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phoenix vs St. Louis	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Washington vs Minnesota	+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

130	6	-	0	0		-	0											2	1	96	0	1
129	5	-	1	0		-	0											1	1	94	1	4		0
128	5	-	0	0		-	1											0	0	86	3	10	0	0
127	5	-	0	1		-	0											0	0	71	5	22	0	2	0
	4	-	1	0		-	1											0	0	70	5	22	0	2	0
126	4	-	1	1		-	0											0	0	46	9	36	0	8	0
	3	-	2	0		-	1												0	46	8	36	0	9	0
	4	-	0	0		-	2												0	46	9	35	0	8	0
125	4	-	0	1		-	1											0	0	23	9	43	1	21	3
	3	-	2	1		-	0											0	0	23	9	43	1	21	3
	3	-	1	0		-	2												0	22	9	43	1	22	3	0
124	4	-	0	2		-	0													9	7	38	3	35	8	0
	3	-	1	1		-	1													9	7	38	3	35	8	0
	2	-	3	1		-	0													8	7	38	3	36	9
123	3	-	1	2		-	0													2	4	23	5	45	21	0	0
	3	-	0	1		-	2													2	3	22	5	46	22	0	0
	2	-	2	1		-	1													2	3	23	4	46	21	0
	2	-	1	0		-	3													2	3	23	5	46	22	0
122	3	-	0	2		-	1													0	1	10	5	44	38	2	0
	2	-	2	2		-	0													0	1	10	5	44	38	2	0	0
	2	-	1	1		-	2													0	1	9	4	43	40	2	0
	1	-	3	1		-	1													0	1	10	4	44	39	2	0
121	3	-	0	3		-	0													0	0	3	3	33	53	8	0	0
	2	-	1	2		-	1													0	0	3	3	32	54	7	0	0
	2	-	0	1		-	3													0	0	3	3	31	55	7	0	0
	1	-	2	1		-	2													0	0	3	3	32	55	7	0	0
	1	-	3	2		-	0													0	0	3	3	33	55	7	0	0
120	2	-	1	3		-	0													0	0	1	1	17	60	19	2	0
	2	-	0	2		-	2														0	1	1	17	60	19	2	0
	1	-	2	2		-	1													0	0	1	1	17	60	19	2	0
	1	-	1	1		-	3														0	0	1	17	60	19	2	0
119	2	-	0	3		-	1														0	0	0	7	50	34	8	1	0	0
	1	-	1	2		-	2															0	0	7	49	34	9	1	0
	1	-	2	3		-	0														0	0	0	7	50	34	8	1	0
118	2	-	0	4		-	0															0	0	2	30	42	21	4	0
	1	-	1	3		-	1															0	0	2	31	42	21	4	0	0
	1	-	0	2		-	3																0	2	31	42	21	4	0
	0	-	2	2		-	2																0	2	31	42	21	4	0
117	1	-	1	4		-	0																0	0	15	37	34	12	1	0
	1	-	0	3		-	2																	0	14	37	35	13	2	0
	0	-	2	3		-	1																	0	15	37	34	12	1	0
116	1	-	0	4		-	1																	0	5	23	40	26	6	0	0
	0	-	1	3		-	2																	0	5	23	40	26	6	0
	0	-	2	4		-	0																	0	5	23	41	25	5	0
115	1	-	0	5		-	0																		1	10	33	39	16	1	0
	0	-	1	4		-	1																	0	1	10	33	38	16	1	0
114	0	-	1	5		-	0																		0	3	20	42	30	5	0
	0	-	0	4		-	2																		0	3	20	40	31	6	0
113	0	-	0	5		-	1																		0	0	8	31	44	16	2
112	0	-	0	6		-	0																			0	2	16	46	30	5	0	0

Total:																		0	0	7	2	11	2	20	30	14	8	4	2	0	0	0	0