Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat NY Islanders 4-3, playoff odds up 0.04 to 0.2%

98 points 23-11 33-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay 4 NY Islanders 3	+0.1		+0.4
Philadelphia 4 Montreal 1			+0.1
Detroit 5 Carolina 4			+0.0
Toronto 3 NY Rangers 4 (so)			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Minnesota	-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Florida vs NY Islanders			+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

122	8	-	0	0		-	0	85.5	%			5			1	27	52	14	1						242
121	7	-	1	0		-	0	75.7				2			0	17	56	24	0						206
120	7	-	0	0		-	1	56.6				1			0	8	48	39	5						567	*
119	7	-	0	1		-	0	37.7				0				3	34	49	12	0					1,888	*
118	6	-	1	1		-	0	18.6				0				1	18	54	25	2					3,777	*
117	6	-	0	1		-	1	9.4								0	9	46	39	6	0				8,063	*
116	5	-	1	1		-	1	3.5								0	3	33	50	14	0				17,529	*
115	5	-	1	2		-	0	0.7									1	17	51	29	2	0			27,491	*
114	5	-	0	2		-	1	0.1									0	7	41	44	8	0			46,549	*
113	4	-	1	2		-	1	0.0									0	2	26	53	18	1	0		34,231
	5	-	0	3		-	0	0.0									0	2	26	53	18	1			40,741	*
112	4	-	1	3		-	0	Out										0	12	51	33	3	0		35,175
	4	-	0	2		-	2	Out										0	13	51	33	3	0		28,976
	3	-	2	2		-	1	Out										0	11	50	35	3	0		33,766	*
111	4	-	0	3		-	1	Out										0	5	38	48	10	0		59,573
	3	-	1	2		-	2	Out										0	4	38	49	10	0		37,061
	3	-	2	3		-	0	Out										0	4	37	49	10	0		37,683	*
110	3	-	1	3		-	1	Out										0	1	23	55	21	0		76,666
	4	-	0	4		-	0	Out										0	1	24	54	20	0		46,533
	3	-	0	2		-	3	Out											1	22	55	21	0		51,694	*
109	3	-	0	3		-	2	Out											0	11	51	37	1	0	64,314
	3	-	1	4		-	0	Out											0	11	51	37	1	0	60,164
	2	-	2	3		-	1	Out											0	10	51	37	1	0	37,381
	2	-	1	2		-	3	Out											0	10	51	38	1		27,303	*
108	3	-	0	4		-	1	Out											0	4	39	53	4	0	99,091
	2	-	1	3		-	2	Out											0	4	39	54	4	0	62,008
	2	-	2	4		-	0	Out											0	4	38	54	4	0	53,043	*
107	2	-	1	4		-	1	Out											0	1	25	64	10	0	95,925
	3	-	0	5		-	0	Out												1	25	63	10	0	61,859
	2	-	0	3		-	3	Out												1	25	65	9	0	34,000
	1	-	2	3		-	2	Out												1	25	65	9	0	32,945	*
106	2	-	0	4		-	2	Out												0	12	68	19	1	78,213
	2	-	1	5		-	0	Out												0	12	68	19	1	59,886
	1	-	2	4		-	1	Out												0	12	68	18	1	30,811
	1	-	1	3		-	3	Out												0	12	69	18	1	27,366	*
105	2	-	0	5		-	1	Out												0	5	60	31	4	97,625
	1	-	1	4		-	2	Out												0	5	61	31	3	50,980
	1	-	2	5		-	0	Out												0	5	61	31	3	35,540	*
104	1	-	1	5		-	1	Out													1	48	42	9	62,704
	2	-	0	6		-	0	Out												0	2	46	43	9	51,198
	1	-	0	4		-	3	Out													1	49	41	8	40,390	*
103	1	-	0	5		-	2	Out													0	34	49	17	50,236
	1	-	1	6		-	0	Out													0	34	49	16	52,457	*
102	1	-	0	6		-	1	Out													0	20	52	29	52,475
	0	-	1	5		-	2	Out													0	20	51	29	25,013	*
101	1	-	0	7		-	0	Out													0	10	46	44	23,220
	0	-	1	6		-	1	Out														11	45	43	25,568	*
100	0	-	0	6		-	2	Out														5	37	58	21,003	*
99	0	-	0	7		-	1	Out														2	26	73	11,761
98	0	-	0	8		-	0	Out														0	16	83	4,676

Total:								0.2	%			0			0	0	0	1	4	12	24	38	16	5	2,017,566

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 4 NY Islanders 3	-0.6
Buffalo 3 Minnesota 1	-0.1
Philadelphia 4 Montreal 1	-0.1
Detroit 5 Carolina 4	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs Minnesota	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Anaheim vs Boston	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Florida vs NY Islanders	-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Columbus vs Edmonton	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	8	-	0	0		-	0						5						1		27	5	48	5	7	2
121	7	-	1	0		-	0						2						0		17	2	54	4	16	4
120	7	-	0	0		-	1						1						0		8		48	3	17	20	4	0
119	7	-	0	1		-	0						0								3		34	1	13	31	15	2	0
118	6	-	1	1		-	0						0								1		18	0	9	34	29	9	1	0
117	6	-	0	1		-	1														0		9	0	3	24	38	22	4	0
116	5	-	1	1		-	1														0		3	0	0	11	36	37	12	1	0
115	5	-	1	2		-	0																1		0	4	21	43	27	5	0	0
114	5	-	0	2		-	1																0		0	1	9	34	40	15	2	0
113	4	-	1	2		-	1																0			0	2	19	42	29	7	0
	5	-	0	3		-	0																0			0	2	19	42	29	7	0	0
112	4	-	1	3		-	0																			0	0	7	33	40	18	2	0
	4	-	0	2		-	2																			0	0	8	33	40	17	2	0
	3	-	2	2		-	1																			0	0	7	32	41	18	2	0
111	4	-	0	3		-	1																				0	2	18	40	32	7	0	0
	3	-	1	2		-	2																				0	2	18	41	33	6	0
	3	-	2	3		-	0																				0	2	18	40	33	7	0
110	3	-	1	3		-	1																					0	8	31	43	16	1	0
	4	-	0	4		-	0																					0	9	32	42	16	1	0
	3	-	0	2		-	3																					0	7	31	44	17	1	0
109	3	-	0	3		-	2																					0	2	18	44	31	4	0	0
	3	-	1	4		-	0																					0	2	18	44	31	4	0
	2	-	2	3		-	1																					0	2	17	45	31	4	0
	2	-	1	2		-	3																					0	2	17	45	31	4	0
108	3	-	0	4		-	1																					0	1	7	35	46	11	1	0
	2	-	1	3		-	2																					0	0	7	35	46	11	1	0	0
	2	-	2	4		-	0																						1	7	35	46	11	1	0
	2	-	0	2		-	4																						0	7	35	46	11	1	0
107	2	-	1	4		-	1																						0	2	21	52	21	3	0	0
	3	-	0	5		-	0																						0	2	22	51	21	3	0	0
	2	-	0	3		-	3																						0	2	22	52	21	3	0
	1	-	2	3		-	2																						0	2	21	52	21	3	0	0
106	2	-	0	4		-	2																						0	0	10	47	34	9	1	0
	2	-	1	5		-	0																						0	1	9	47	34	9	1	0
	1	-	2	4		-	1																						0	0	10	47	33	9	1	0
	1	-	1	3		-	3																						0	0	9	47	34	9	1	0
105	2	-	0	5		-	1																							0	3	33	41	19	4	0
	1	-	1	4		-	2																						0	0	3	34	41	18	3	0
	1	-	2	5		-	0																							0	3	34	41	19	4	0
104	1	-	1	5		-	1																							0	1	20	39	30	9	1
	2	-	0	6		-	0																							0	1	19	39	30	10	1
	1	-	0	4		-	3																							0	1	20	40	29	9	1
103	1	-	0	5		-	2																								0	9	31	37	19	4
	1	-	1	6		-	0																								0	9	31	37	19	3
102	1	-	0	6		-	1																								0	3	19	38	31	9
	0	-	1	5		-	2																								0	3	19	37	31	9
101	1	-	0	7		-	0																									1	10	30	40	19
100	0	-	0	6		-	2																									0	4	19	44	33
99	0	-	0	7		-	1																									0	1	10	38	51
98	0	-	0	8		-	0																									0	0	4	29	67

Total:													0						0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	12	19	25	17	10	5	2