Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat Minnesota 3-1, playoff odds up 7.9 to 30.8%

110 points 26-11 29-10

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Buffalo 3 Minnesota 1	+7.9		+0.3
Ottawa 8 Pittsburgh 4	-2.8		-0.1
Nashville 3 Winnipeg 1	+2.1		+0.1
Detroit 5 Carolina 4	+0.4		+0.1
Toronto 3 NY Rangers 4 (so)			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Minnesota	-5.0-0.8-0.6+4.1+3.9+8.5		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Florida vs NY Islanders	-0.3-0.1-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

128	6	-	0	0		-	0	In			1	1			41	55	2								1,995
127	5	-	1	0		-	0	In			0	0			31	62	6								3,306
126	5	-	0	0		-	1	99.9	%		0	0			19	67	14	0							7,904	*
125	5	-	0	1		-	0	99.4			0	0			10	65	24	1							17,228	*
	4	-	1	0		-	1	99.5				0			10	65	24	1							8,431
124	4	-	1	1		-	0	97.6				0			5	56	37	2	0						25,668
	4	-	0	0		-	2	98.0							5	56	37	2							11,886	*
123	4	-	0	1		-	1	93.6				0			2	42	50	6	0						37,697
	3	-	2	1		-	0	93.7				0			2	42	50	6	0						16,491
	3	-	1	0		-	2	93.8				0			2	43	49	6	0						9,703	*
122	4	-	0	2		-	0	84.9			0	0			1	28	56	15	0						58,137
	3	-	1	1		-	1	85.4				0			1	29	56	14	0						47,977
	2	-	3	1		-	0	85.8							1	29	56	14	0						12,969	*
121	3	-	1	2		-	0	71.7							0	16	55	27	2						75,334
	3	-	0	1		-	2	72.5							0	17	56	26	2						34,755
	2	-	2	1		-	1	72.5							0	16	56	26	1						28,721	*
120	3	-	0	2		-	1	54.4							0	7	47	41	5	0					106,721
	2	-	2	2		-	0	55.2							0	8	48	40	4						36,593
	2	-	1	1		-	2	54.7							0	7	47	41	5	0					33,430
	1	-	3	1		-	1	55.9							0	8	48	40	4						7,546	*
119	3	-	0	3		-	0	37.9								3	35	52	10	0					110,657
	2	-	1	2		-	1	37.5							0	3	35	52	10	0					103,630
	2	-	0	1		-	3	38.3								3	35	52	10	0					15,369
	1	-	2	1		-	2	37.7								3	35	52	10	0					10,976	*
	1	-	3	2		-	0	37.8								3	35	51	11						9,061	*
118	2	-	1	3		-	0	22.2								1	21	58	19	0					106,989
	2	-	0	2		-	2	22.1								1	21	59	19	0					71,597
	1	-	2	2		-	1	22.2								1	21	58	19	0					33,432
	1	-	1	1		-	3	22.7								1	22	58	19	0					12,104	*
117	2	-	0	3		-	1	10.9								0	11	55	33	1	0				148,891
	1	-	1	2		-	2	10.7								0	11	56	33	1					46,367
	1	-	2	3		-	0	11.0								0	11	56	32	1	0				34,581
	0	-	3	2		-	1	10.4								0	10	56	33	1					8,717	*
116	2	-	0	4		-	0	4.9								0	5	46	46	4	0				115,602
	1	-	1	3		-	1	4.6								0	5	46	46	4	0				100,127	*
	1	-	0	2		-	3	4.4								0	4	46	46	4	0	0			20,676
	0	-	2	2		-	2	4.3								0	4	45	47	4					7,519
115	1	-	1	4		-	0	1.5								0	2	32	56	10	0	0			74,109
	1	-	0	3		-	2	1.4								0	1	33	56	10	0	0			64,651
	0	-	2	3		-	1	1.5								0	1	33	56	10	0	0			22,387	*
114	1	-	0	4		-	1	0.3									0	18	57	23	2	0			99,236
	0	-	1	3		-	2	0.3									0	18	57	23	2	0			20,754
	0	-	2	4		-	0	0.4									0	18	58	22	2	0			14,089	*
113	1	-	0	5		-	0	0.1									0	8	48	38	6	0			62,064
	0	-	1	4		-	1	0.0									0	8	47	39	7	0			31,902
	0	-	0	3		-	3	0.0									0	7	45	40	7	0			8,982
112	0	-	0	4		-	2	0.0									0	2	28	51	18	1	0		20,876
	0	-	1	5		-	0	Out										2	29	50	17	1	0		19,877
111	0	-	0	5		-	1	Out										0	11	48	35	5	0		26,209
110	0	-	0	6		-	0	Out										0	4	35	49	12	0		13,643

Total:								30.8	%		0	0			0	8	23	36	25	7	2	0	0		2,017,566

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo 3 Minnesota 1	-0.8
Ottawa 8 Pittsburgh 4	+0.2
Nashville 3 Winnipeg 1	-0.1
Detroit 5 Carolina 4	-0.1
Colorado 2 Vancouver 3 (ot)	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs Minnesota	+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.3
Anaheim vs Boston	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

128	6	-	0	0		-	0				1	0	0					0	41	47	8	2
127	5	-	1	0		-	0				0	0	0					0	31	43	19	6	0
126	5	-	0	0		-	1				0	0	0						19	33	34	12	2	0
125	5	-	0	1		-	0				0	0	0						10	19	46	17	7	1	0
	4	-	1	0		-	1				0		0						10	18	47	17	7	1	0
124	4	-	1	1		-	0						0						5	7	49	18	19	2	0	0
	4	-	0	0		-	2												5	7	49	18	19	2	0	0
123	4	-	0	1		-	1						0						2	2	40	13	37	5	2	0	0
	3	-	2	1		-	0						0						2	2	41	14	36	4	2	0	0
	3	-	1	0		-	2						0						2	2	41	13	37	4	2	0
122	4	-	0	2		-	0				0		0						1	0	28	6	50	7	6	2	0
	3	-	1	1		-	1						0						1	0	28	6	51	7	6	2	0	0
	2	-	3	1		-	0												1	0	29	6	51	6	6	2	0	0
121	3	-	1	2		-	0												0	0	16	2	53	7	14	7	1	0
	3	-	0	1		-	2												0	0	17	2	54	6	13	7	1	0
	2	-	2	1		-	1												0	0	16	2	55	6	13	7	1	0
120	3	-	0	2		-	1												0	0	7	0	47	4	18	19	4	0	0
	2	-	2	2		-	0												0		8	0	47	4	18	18	4	0	0
	2	-	1	1		-	2												0	0	7	0	47	4	18	18	4	0
	1	-	3	1		-	1												0		8	0	48	4	18	18	4	0	0
119	3	-	0	3		-	0														3	0	35	2	16	30	13	1	0
	2	-	1	2		-	1												0		3	0	35	2	15	31	14	1	0
	2	-	0	1		-	3														3	0	35	2	15	30	13	1	0
	1	-	2	1		-	2														3		35	2	16	30	13	2	0
	1	-	3	2		-	0														3	0	35	2	15	31	14	2	0
118	2	-	1	3		-	0														1	0	21	0	9	35	27	6	0
	2	-	0	2		-	2														1		21	0	9	35	27	6	0
	1	-	2	2		-	1														1	0	21	0	10	34	27	6	0
	1	-	1	1		-	3														1		22	0	9	35	27	6	0
117	2	-	0	3		-	1														0		11	0	4	28	40	16	1	0	0
	1	-	1	2		-	2														0		11	0	4	28	41	16	1	0
	1	-	2	3		-	0														0		11	0	4	28	40	16	1	0	0
	0	-	3	2		-	1														0		10	0	3	28	41	16	1	0
116	2	-	0	4		-	0														0		5	0	1	16	42	30	5	0
	1	-	1	3		-	1														0		5	0	1	15	43	31	5	0	0
	1	-	0	2		-	3														0		4	0	1	16	42	31	5	0	0
	0	-	2	2		-	2														0		4	0	1	15	42	32	5	0
115	1	-	1	4		-	0														0		2		0	7	33	43	14	2	0
	1	-	0	3		-	2														0		1		0	7	33	43	14	2	0
	0	-	2	3		-	1														0		1		0	7	34	43	14	1	0
114	1	-	0	4		-	1																0		0	2	18	44	28	7	0	0
	0	-	1	3		-	2																0		0	2	18	44	28	6	0
	0	-	2	4		-	0																0		0	2	18	45	28	6	0	0
113	1	-	0	5		-	0																0			0	7	34	39	16	2	0
	0	-	1	4		-	1																0			0	7	33	40	17	2	0	0
	0	-	0	3		-	3																0			0	7	32	40	18	2	0
112	0	-	0	4		-	2																0			0	2	17	39	32	9	1	0
	0	-	1	5		-	0																			0	2	17	40	32	9	1
111	0	-	0	5		-	1																			0	0	6	26	42	23	3	0
110	0	-	0	6		-	0																				0	1	13	38	37	10	0	0

Total:											0	0	0					0	0	1	7	2	21	2	7	16	19	15	7	3	1	0	0	0