Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Lost to NY Rangers 3-4 (so), playoff odds down 0.2 to 0.1%

100 points 25-8 34-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 3 NY Rangers 4 (so)	-0.2		-0.1
Ottawa 8 Pittsburgh 4	-0.1
Nashville 3 Winnipeg 1	+0.1
Buffalo 3 Minnesota 1			-0.0
Detroit 5 Carolina 4			+0.1
Philadelphia 4 Montreal 1			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Minnesota	-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

118	6	-	0	0		-	0	15.8	%							1	15	60	23	1					5,666
117	5	-	1	0		-	0	7.0								0	7	52	36	5	0				10,634
116	5	-	0	0		-	1	2.4									2	36	47	15	0				11,054
	4	-	2	0		-	0	2.2									2	35	47	16	0				8,443
115	5	-	0	1		-	0	0.5								0	1	19	48	32	1	0			34,709
	4	-	1	0		-	1	0.5									0	19	48	31	1				21,687	*
114	4	-	1	1		-	0	0.1									0	8	40	48	4	0			55,552
	3	-	2	0		-	1	0.1									0	8	40	48	4	0			11,518
	4	-	0	0		-	2	0.1									0	8	39	49	4				10,231	*
113	4	-	0	1		-	1	0.0									0	3	25	60	12	0			57,837
	3	-	2	1		-	0	0.0									0	3	24	60	13	0			35,755
	3	-	1	0		-	2	0.0									0	2	25	60	13	0			15,815	*
112	4	-	0	2		-	0	Out										0	12	63	23	1			89,049
	3	-	1	1		-	1	Out										0	12	62	25	1	0		74,110
	2	-	3	1		-	0	Out										0	11	60	26	1			11,446
	2	-	2	0		-	2	Out										0	11	61	26	1			10,448	*
111	3	-	1	2		-	0	Out										0	5	52	39	4	0		114,680
	3	-	0	1		-	2	Out										0	4	53	39	4	0		37,362
	2	-	2	1		-	1	Out										0	4	51	41	4	0		43,120	*
110	3	-	0	2		-	1	Out										0	1	38	52	9	0		115,695
	2	-	2	2		-	0	Out											1	36	53	10	0		55,067
	2	-	1	1		-	2	Out											1	36	53	10	0		36,236
	1	-	3	1		-	1	Out											1	35	54	10	0		10,126	*
109	3	-	0	3		-	0	Out											0	24	57	19	0	0	120,388
	2	-	1	2		-	1	Out											0	22	58	20	0	0	111,830
	1	-	3	2		-	0	Out											0	20	58	21	0		11,952
	2	-	0	1		-	3	Out											0	21	59	19	0		11,677
	1	-	2	1		-	2	Out											0	20	58	21	0		13,011	*
108	2	-	1	3		-	0	Out											0	11	54	33	2	0	116,068
	2	-	0	2		-	2	Out											0	11	54	33	2	0	55,377
	1	-	2	2		-	1	Out											0	10	54	35	2	0	36,286
	1	-	1	1		-	3	Out											0	9	53	35	2	0	10,141	*
107	2	-	0	3		-	1	Out											0	4	43	47	5	0	114,469
	1	-	2	3		-	0	Out											0	4	42	49	6	0	37,557
	1	-	1	2		-	2	Out											0	4	42	49	5	0	42,854	*
106	2	-	0	4		-	0	Out												1	29	57	13	1	88,669
	1	-	1	3		-	1	Out												1	28	58	13	1	73,594
	1	-	0	2		-	3	Out												1	27	59	13	1	11,367
	0	-	2	2		-	2	Out												1	27	59	13	1	10,345	*
105	1	-	1	4		-	0	Out												0	15	57	25	3	57,210
	1	-	0	3		-	2	Out												0	15	58	25	3	35,606
	0	-	2	3		-	1	Out												0	14	59	24	3	15,671	*
104	1	-	0	4		-	1	Out												0	6	49	38	7	54,912
	0	-	1	3		-	2	Out												0	6	50	38	7	11,312
	0	-	2	4		-	0	Out													6	49	38	7	10,102	*
103	1	-	0	5		-	0	Out													2	34	49	14	34,029
	0	-	1	4		-	1	Out													2	36	49	14	21,538	*
102	0	-	1	5		-	0	Out													0	21	54	25	19,415	*
101	0	-	0	5		-	1	Out													0	10	51	39	10,359
100	0	-	0	6		-	0	Out														5	41	54	5,587

Total:								0.1	%							0	0	2	7	26	34	24	7	1	2,017,566

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 3 NY Rangers 4 (so)	+0.1
Detroit 5 Carolina 4	-0.1
Philadelphia 4 Montreal 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Boston	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Washington vs Minnesota	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

118	6	-	0	0		-	0														1		15	0	8	36	31	8	0
117	5	-	1	0		-	0														0		7	0	3	26	41	20	3	0
116	5	-	0	0		-	1																2		0	12	37	35	12	1
	4	-	2	0		-	0																2		1	12	36	36	12	1	0
115	5	-	0	1		-	0														0		1		0	4	22	41	28	5	0
	4	-	1	0		-	1																0		0	4	22	41	28	5	0
114	4	-	1	1		-	0																0			1	10	33	41	14	1	0
	3	-	2	0		-	1																0			1	10	33	42	14	1	0
	4	-	0	0		-	2																0		0	1	9	33	42	14	1
113	4	-	0	1		-	1																0			0	3	19	46	28	4	0
	3	-	2	1		-	0																0			0	2	19	46	28	5	0
	3	-	1	0		-	2																0			0	3	18	47	27	5	0
112	4	-	0	2		-	0																			0	0	8	39	41	12	1	0
	3	-	1	1		-	1																			0	0	7	38	41	12	1	0
	2	-	3	1		-	0																				0	7	38	41	13	1
	2	-	2	0		-	2																				0	7	38	41	12	1
111	3	-	1	2		-	0																			0	0	2	24	46	25	3	0	0
	3	-	0	1		-	2																				0	2	24	47	25	3	0
	2	-	2	1		-	1																				0	2	23	46	26	3	0
110	3	-	0	2		-	1																				0	0	12	41	39	7	0	0
	2	-	2	2		-	0																					0	12	40	40	8	0
	2	-	1	1		-	2																					0	12	39	40	8	0	0
	1	-	3	1		-	1																					0	12	39	41	8	0
109	3	-	0	3		-	0																					0	5	29	48	17	1	0	0
	2	-	1	2		-	1																					0	5	28	48	18	1	0
	1	-	3	2		-	0																					0	4	26	49	19	1	0
	2	-	0	1		-	3																					0	4	28	48	18	1	0
	1	-	2	1		-	2																					0	4	27	48	19	1	0
108	2	-	1	3		-	0																					0	1	15	47	31	5	0	0
	2	-	0	2		-	2																					0	1	15	48	32	5	0	0
	1	-	2	2		-	1																					0	1	14	47	32	5	0	0
	1	-	1	1		-	3																						1	14	47	33	5	0
107	2	-	0	3		-	1																						0	6	37	43	12	1	0	0
	1	-	2	3		-	0																						0	6	35	45	13	1	0
	1	-	1	2		-	2																						0	5	36	45	12	1	0
106	2	-	0	4		-	0																						0	2	22	47	24	5	0	0
	1	-	1	3		-	1																						0	1	21	48	24	5	0	0
	1	-	0	2		-	3																						0	1	21	48	24	5	0	0
	0	-	2	2		-	2																						0	1	21	48	24	5	0
105	1	-	1	4		-	0																						0	0	9	39	36	13	2	0
	1	-	0	3		-	2																						0	0	9	40	35	13	2	0
	0	-	2	3		-	1																						0	0	9	40	36	13	2	0
104	1	-	0	4		-	1																							0	3	26	40	24	6	1
	0	-	1	3		-	2																								3	26	40	24	6	1
	0	-	2	4		-	0																								3	26	40	24	6	0
103	1	-	0	5		-	0																								1	13	34	35	15	2
	0	-	1	4		-	1																								1	13	35	35	15	2
102	0	-	1	5		-	0																								0	5	22	39	27	7
101	0	-	0	5		-	1																									1	12	34	38	15
100	0	-	0	6		-	0																									0	4	23	44	28

Total:																					0		0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	26	19	9	4	1	0