Halifax Ghost Riders Playoff Chances 2010-2011

Beat GFK 3-2, Beat LON 5-3, Lost to YUK 1-6, Lost to MEL 0-3, playoff odds down 0.3 to 0.4%

54 points 26-32-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the HAL finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Count

102		24	-	0	-	0	In		63		36	2						121
96		21	-	3	-	0	83.3	%			33	50	17					6	*
95		20	-	3	-	1	75.0				25	50	25					8	*
94		19	-	3	-	2	77.3				18	59	23					22	*
93		19	-	4	-	1	62.5				10	52	38					48	*
92		18	-	4	-	2	61.4				5	57	39					127	*
91		18	-	5	-	1	40.0				2	38	60					310	*
90		17	-	5	-	2	27.0				0	27	73					618	*
89		17	-	6	-	1	20.2				0	20	80	0				1,237	*
88		16	-	6	-	2	14.4					14	85	0				2,457	*
87		16	-	7	-	1	9.0					9	90	1				4,063	*
86		15	-	7	-	2	6.3					6	92	2				6,923	*
85		15	-	8	-	1	3.3					3	93	4				10,738	*
84		14	-	8	-	2	1.7					2	92	7				16,482	*
83		14	-	9	-	1	0.9					1	88	11	0			23,395	*
82		13	-	9	-	2	0.5					0	83	16	0			32,507	*
81		13	-	10	-	1	0.2					0	77	23	0			41,584	*
80		12	-	10	-	2	0.1					0	68	31	0			52,722	*
79		12	-	11	-	1	0.0					0	59	40	1			30,028
		11	-	10	-	3	0.0					0	59	40	1			32,031	*
78		11	-	11	-	2	0.0					0	49	49	2			38,906
		10	-	10	-	4	0.0					0	49	49	2			31,455	*
77		11	-	12	-	1	0.0					0	39	57	4			35,691
		10	-	11	-	3	0.0					0	38	57	4			38,591	*
76		10	-	12	-	2	0.0					0	28	64	8			43,229
		9	-	11	-	4	Out						28	64	8			34,652	*
75		10	-	13	-	1	0.0					0	20	67	13			36,843
		9	-	12	-	3	Out						20	67	13	0		38,552	*
74		9	-	13	-	2	Out						13	67	20	0		40,074
		8	-	12	-	4	Out						13	67	20	0		32,062	*
73		9	-	14	-	1	Out						8	64	28	0		31,914
		8	-	13	-	3	Out						7	64	28	0		32,014	*
72		8	-	14	-	2	Out						4	57	39	0		30,269
		9	-	15	-	0	Out						4	57	39	0		24,112	*
71		8	-	15	-	1	Out						2	49	49	0		43,244	*
70		7	-	15	-	2	Out						1	39	59	1		34,265	*
69		7	-	16	-	1	Out						0	30	68	1		24,155	*
68		6	-	16	-	2	Out						0	21	76	3		16,809	*
67		6	-	17	-	1	Out						0	14	81	5		10,957	*
66		5	-	17	-	2	Out							9	83	8		6,839	*
65		5	-	18	-	1	Out							5	81	14		3,858	*
64		4	-	18	-	2	Out							2	77	20		2,203	*
63		4	-	19	-	1	Out							1	70	29		1,060	*
62		3	-	19	-	2	Out							1	61	38		509	*
61		3	-	20	-	1	Out							1	55	44		224	*
60		2	-	20	-	2	Out								47	53		88	*
59		2	-	21	-	1	Out								43	57		28	*
58		2	-	22	-	0	Out								33	67		9	*
56	-57						Out									100		4	*
54		0	-	24	-	0	Out								1	96	3	121

Total:							0.4	%	0		0	0	35	46	19	0	0	888,164

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18

102		24	-	0	-	0	19	44			35	1	2
96		21	-	3	-	0					17	17	33	17	17
95		20	-	3	-	1						25	38	13	25
94		19	-	3	-	2						18	14	45	23
93		19	-	4	-	1						10		52	29	8
92		18	-	4	-	2						5	3	54	17	15	7
91		18	-	5	-	1						2	1	37	17	33	10
90		17	-	5	-	2						0	0	27	12	33	26	2
89		17	-	6	-	1						0	0	20	7	31	37	5
88		16	-	6	-	2								14	3	24	50	9	0
87		16	-	7	-	1								9	1	17	55	17	0
86		15	-	7	-	2								6	0	10	55	28	1
85		15	-	8	-	1								3	0	5	48	41	2
84		14	-	8	-	2								2	0	3	42	50	4	0
83		14	-	9	-	1								1	0	1	31	59	8	0
82		13	-	9	-	2								0		0	22	63	14	1	0
81		13	-	10	-	1								0		0	14	62	22	2	0
80		12	-	10	-	2								0		0	8	56	32	4	0
		11	-	9	-	4								0		0	8	55	33	4	0
79		12	-	11	-	1								0			4	47	41	7	0
		11	-	10	-	3								0		0	4	47	42	7	0
78		11	-	11	-	2								0		0	2	36	48	13	0
77		11	-	12	-	1								0			1	26	51	22	1
		10	-	11	-	3								0			1	25	51	22	1
76		10	-	12	-	2								0			0	16	49	32	3
		9	-	11	-	4											0	16	49	32	3
75		10	-	13	-	1								0			0	9	43	42	6	0
		9	-	12	-	3											0	9	42	42	7	0
74		9	-	13	-	2											0	4	34	50	12	0
		8	-	12	-	4											0	4	33	50	12	0
73		9	-	14	-	1											0	2	24	54	19	0
		8	-	13	-	3											0	2	23	55	20	0
72		8	-	14	-	2												1	15	53	30	0
		9	-	15	-	0												1	15	54	30	0
71		8	-	15	-	1												0	8	49	41	1	0
70		7	-	15	-	2												0	4	40	53	2	0
69		7	-	16	-	1												0	2	32	62	5	0
68		6	-	16	-	2													1	21	69	9	0
67		6	-	17	-	1													0	13	71	15	0
66		5	-	17	-	2													0	8	69	22	2
65		5	-	18	-	1													0	4	61	32	3
64		4	-	18	-	2														2	50	41	7
63		4	-	19	-	1														1	38	49	12
62		3	-	19	-	2														0	33	47	19
61		3	-	20	-	1															21	53	26
60		2	-	20	-	2															15	47	39
59		2	-	21	-	1															14	50	36
58		2	-	22	-	0																33	67
56	-57																						100
54		0	-	24	-	0																3	93	3

Total:							0	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	6	23	29	27	14	1	0	0