SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

North Bay Golden Bears Playoff Chances 2010-2011

Tied DET 4-4, Lost to SAI 2-3, Lost to SEA 1-4, Beat SSK 4-2, playoff odds down 24.7 to 52.4%

70 points 32-22-6

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NOR 1 SEA 4	-6.5		-0.3
NOR 2 SAI 3	-6.1		-0.2
SSK 2 NOR 4	+3.5		+0.1
LON 3 SOU 5	+1.8
HAL 5 LON 3	+1.7
EST 4 LON 6	-1.6		-0.0
FAR 2 NEL 4	-1.6		-0.1
LON 8 RAL 2	-1.5		-0.0
DET 4 NOR 4	+1.5		+0.1
NEL 4 DET 2	-1.5		-0.1
SOU 1 EDM 4	-1.2
RAL 1 EDM 7	-1.1
NEL 5 SEA 3	-1.1		-0.0
SSK 4 NEL 6	-1.0		-0.0
EDM 4 FAR 2	-0.7
FAR 2 WHI 1	+0.6
WHI 5 DET 2	-0.5
RAL 3 WHI 0	+0.5
WHI 4 SSK 4	*+0.4
EDM 9 SSK 1	-0.3
GFK 0 SOU 6	+0.2
MEL 8 EST 0	*-0.1		-0.0
SEA 4 MEL 2			+0.1
SAI 4 MEL 1			+0.1
MEL 3 HAL 0			-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NOR vs SSK	+3.2-3.9-10.9		+0.1-0.1-0.4
SEA vs NOR	-6.7*+0.3+7.3		-0.2+0.0+0.2
SAI vs NOR	-5.7+1.1+8.1		-0.2+0.0+0.3
NOR vs DET	+6.6*-0.4-7.2		+0.2-0.0-0.2
EDM vs SOU	-2.3*+0.2+2.9		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
FAR vs EDM	+2.8*+0.4-2.3		+0.1+0.0-0.1
SSK vs EDM	+3.6+1.0-1.4		+0.1+0.0-0.0
SOU vs LON	+1.7-0.7-3.1		+0.0-0.0-0.1
EDM vs RAL	-1.8+0.6+3.0		-0.0+0.0+0.1
LON vs HAL	-1.5+1.1+2.8		-0.0+0.0+0.1
RAL vs LON	+1.8*-0.2-2.6		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
LON vs EST	-1.3+1.1+3.0		-0.0+0.0+0.1
NEL vs SSK	-0.7+0.8+2.6		-0.0+0.0+0.1
NEL vs FAR	-1.1*+0.4+2.1		-0.0+0.0+0.1
SEA vs NEL	+1.5*-0.1-1.4		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
DET vs NEL	+1.1*-0.3-1.8		+0.0-0.0-0.1
HAL vs MEL	+0.5*-0.2-0.3
MEL vs SAI			-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NOR finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Count

111	-118						In		100									222	*
110		19	-	3	-	2	In		94		6							191	*
109		19	-	4	-	1	In		93		7							367	*
108		18	-	4	-	2	In		91	0	9							772	*
107		18	-	5	-	1	In		88		12	0						1,448	*
106		17	-	5	-	2	In		77	0	22	0						2,933	*
105		17	-	6	-	1	In		69	0	30	1						5,148	*
104		16	-	6	-	2	In		59	1	39	2						8,606	*
103		16	-	7	-	1	100.0	%	47	1	48	4	0					12,812	*
102		15	-	7	-	2	99.9		35	2	56	8	0					19,678	*
101		15	-	8	-	1	99.7		23	2	61	13	0					26,978	*
100		14	-	8	-	2	99.0		15	2	60	22	1	0				36,947	*
99		14	-	9	-	1	97.3		7	2	55	33	3	0				23,146
		13	-	8	-	3	97.4		8	2	55	32	3	0				23,054	*
98		13	-	9	-	2	93.6		3	2	46	43	6	0				31,802
		12	-	8	-	4	93.5		3	1	46	43	6	0				25,589	*
97		13	-	10	-	1	86.8		1	1	34	50	13	1	0			31,995
		12	-	9	-	3	87.1		1	1	34	51	12	1				33,155	*
96		12	-	10	-	2	77.4		0	1	23	53	21	2				40,883
		11	-	9	-	4	77.1		0	1	23	53	21	2	0			32,320	*
95		12	-	11	-	1	64.3		0	0	14	51	31	4	0			36,641
		11	-	10	-	3	64.6		0	0	14	51	31	4	0			38,727	*
94		11	-	11	-	2	49.5		0	0	7	42	41	9	0			43,268
		10	-	10	-	4	49.2		0	0	7	42	42	9	0			16,644
		12	-	12	-	0	48.8		0	0	7	42	42	9	0			17,575	*
93		11	-	12	-	1	33.9		0	0	3	31	49	17	0			35,632
		10	-	11	-	3	34.3			0	3	31	48	17	0			37,201	*
92		10	-	12	-	2	21.2			0	1	20	50	28	1			38,057
		9	-	11	-	4	21.5				1	20	50	28	1			30,488	*
91		10	-	13	-	1	11.5				0	11	46	40	3			28,860
		9	-	12	-	3	12.0				0	12	45	40	3			29,800	*
90		9	-	13	-	2	6.1				0	6	36	51	7			27,645
		8	-	12	-	4	6.0				0	6	37	51	7			22,054	*
89		9	-	14	-	1	2.6				0	3	26	58	13	0		19,698
		8	-	13	-	3	2.6				0	3	26	58	13	0		19,392	*
88		8	-	14	-	2	0.9					1	17	60	22	0		29,883	*
87		8	-	15	-	1	0.3					0	10	57	33	0		21,083	*
86		7	-	15	-	2	0.1					0	5	49	45	0		14,750	*
85		7	-	16	-	1	0.0					0	2	40	57	1		9,470	*
84		6	-	16	-	2	Out						1	30	66	3		6,083	*
83		6	-	17	-	1	Out						0	21	74	5		3,365	*
82		5	-	17	-	2	Out						0	15	77	7		1,922	*
81		5	-	18	-	1	Out							8	79	13		950	*
80		4	-	18	-	2	Out							5	76	19		442	*
79		4	-	19	-	1	Out							2	73	25		229	*
78		3	-	19	-	2	Out							1	71	28		75	*
77		3	-	20	-	1	Out								69	31		42	*
76		2	-	20	-	2	Out								33	67		18	*
74	-75						Out									100		3	*
70		0	-	24	-	0	Out								1	87	12	121

Total:							52.4	%	5	1	19	27	24	18	5	0	0	888,164

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
NOR 2 SAI 3	+0.5
NOR 1 SEA 4	+0.5
SSK 2 NOR 4	-0.2
DET 4 NOR 4	-0.1
SEA 4 MEL 2	-0.1
FAR 2 NEL 4	+0.1
SAI 4 MEL 1	-0.1
EST 4 LON 6	+0.1
HAL 5 LON 3	-0.1
NEL 4 DET 2	+0.1
LON 8 RAL 2	+0.1
NEL 5 SEA 3	+0.1
SSK 4 NEL 6	+0.1
MEL 3 HAL 0	+0.1
MEL 8 EST 0	+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SAI vs NOR	+0.3-0.1-0.5
NOR vs DET	-0.4+0.0+0.4
SEA vs NOR	+0.4-0.0-0.4
NOR vs SSK	-0.2+0.2+0.6
NEL vs FAR	+0.1-0.0-0.1
NEL vs SSK	+0.0-0.0-0.1
FAR vs EDM	-0.1-0.0+0.1
SEA vs NEL	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
SSK vs EDM	-0.1-0.0+0.0
EDM vs RAL	+0.1-0.0-0.1
LON vs EST	+0.0-0.0-0.1
RAL vs LON	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
EDM vs SOU	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
LON vs HAL	+0.1-0.0-0.1
SOU vs LON	-0.0+0.0+0.1
DET vs NEL	-0.1+0.0+0.1
HAL vs MEL	-0.1*-0.0+0.0
EST vs MEL	-0.1-0.0+0.0
MEL vs SEA	+0.0-0.0-0.1
MEL vs SAI	+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18

112	-118						100
111		20	-	3	-	1	96	4
110		19	-	3	-	2	91	4			6
109		19	-	4	-	1	86	7			7
108		18	-	4	-	2	80	11	0		9
107		18	-	5	-	1	72	15			12	0	0
106		17	-	5	-	2	56	21	0		22	0	0
105		17	-	6	-	1	45	25	0		29	1	1
104		16	-	6	-	2	30	28	1		37	2	2
103		16	-	7	-	1	19	28	1		44	4	4	0	0
102		15	-	7	-	2	10	25	2	0	47	8	8	0	0
101		15	-	8	-	1	4	19	2	0	46	15	13	0	0
100		14	-	8	-	2	2	13	2	0	38	22	22	0	1	0
99		14	-	9	-	1	0	7	2	0	27	27	32	1	3	0
		13	-	8	-	3	0	7	2	0	27	28	31	1	3	0
98		13	-	9	-	2	0	3	1	0	17	29	39	4	6	0
		12	-	8	-	4	0	3	1	0	16	30	39	4	6	0
97		13	-	10	-	1	0	1	1	0	8	26	42	8	13	1	0
		12	-	9	-	3	0	1	1	0	8	26	42	8	12	1
96		12	-	10	-	2		0	0	0	3	20	40	13	21	2
		11	-	9	-	4		0	0	0	3	19	39	14	21	2	0
95		12	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	1	12	32	19	31	4	0
		11	-	10	-	3		0	0	0	1	13	32	19	31	4	0
94		11	-	11	-	2		0	0	0	0	7	22	21	41	9	0
		10	-	10	-	4		0	0	0	0	7	22	21	42	9	0
93		11	-	12	-	1		0		0	0	3	12	18	49	17	0
		10	-	11	-	3			0	0	0	3	12	19	49	17	0
92		10	-	12	-	2			0		0	1	6	14	50	28	1
		9	-	11	-	4					0	1	6	14	50	28	1
91		10	-	13	-	1					0	0	2	9	46	40	3	0
		9	-	12	-	3						0	2	9	45	40	3
90		9	-	13	-	2						0	1	5	36	51	7	0
		8	-	12	-	4						0	1	5	36	51	7	0
89		9	-	14	-	1						0	0	2	26	58	13	0
88		8	-	14	-	2							0	1	16	59	23	0
87		8	-	15	-	1							0	0	9	55	34	1	0
86		7	-	15	-	2								0	5	46	46	3	0
85		7	-	16	-	1								0	2	36	56	7	0
84		6	-	16	-	2									1	24	62	13	1	0
83		6	-	17	-	1									0	15	60	22	2
82		5	-	17	-	2									0	9	56	30	4	0
81		5	-	18	-	1										3	48	41	7	1
80		4	-	18	-	2										1	32	48	16	2
79		4	-	19	-	1										1	25	47	23	4
78		3	-	19	-	2											17	36	36	9	1
77		3	-	20	-	1											10	26	40	24
76		2	-	20	-	2											11	11	44	33
75		2	-	21	-	1													50	50
74		1	-	21	-	2															100
70		0	-	24	-	0													3	37	49	11

Total:							2	3	1	0	9	11	18	9	24	18	5	0	0	0	0	0