SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

What might
today bring

Melbourne Maulers Playoff Chances 2010-2011

Beat EST 8-0, Beat HAL 3-0, Lost to SAI 1-4, Lost to SEA 2-4, playoff odds down 1.7 to 96.7%

73 points 35-22-3

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
SEA 4 MEL 2	-0.8		-0.2
SAI 4 MEL 1	-0.8		-0.1
MEL 3 HAL 0	+0.4		+0.1
MEL 8 EST 0	+0.4		+0.1
LON 3 SOU 5	+0.2
NOR 1 SEA 4	+0.2		+0.1
NEL 4 DET 2	-0.2
HAL 5 LON 3	+0.2
LON 8 RAL 2	-0.2
NOR 2 SAI 3	+0.2		+0.1
SOU 1 EDM 4	-0.2
EST 4 LON 6	-0.2
FAR 2 NEL 4	-0.2
RAL 1 EDM 7	-0.1
NEL 5 SEA 3	-0.1
SSK 4 NEL 6	-0.1
EDM 4 FAR 2	-0.1
SSK 2 NOR 4	-0.1		-0.0
WHI 5 DET 2	-0.1
DET 4 NOR 4			-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
MEL vs SEA	+0.8-0.5-2.2		+0.1-0.1-0.3
MEL vs SAI	+0.9-0.2-2.0		+0.1-0.0-0.2
EST vs MEL	-1.9-0.3+0.9		-0.2-0.0+0.1
HAL vs MEL	-1.7-0.2+1.1		-0.2-0.0+0.1
EDM vs RAL	-0.3*+0.0+0.5
RAL vs LON	+0.3*-0.0-0.4
SEA vs NOR	+0.3*-0.0-0.4
LON vs HAL	-0.2*+0.1+0.5
SSK vs EDM	+0.5*+0.1-0.2
NOR vs SSK	-0.2+0.3+0.5
NOR vs DET	-0.3*+0.1+0.3
FAR vs EDM	+0.4*+0.0-0.3
SOU vs LON	+0.2*-0.1-0.4
EDM vs SOU	-0.3*+0.1+0.3
SAI vs NOR	+0.3*-0.1-0.4
LON vs EST	-0.2*+0.0+0.4
DET vs NEL	+0.2*+0.0-0.3		+0.1-0.0-0.1
NEL vs SSK	-0.1*+0.1+0.4		-0.0+0.0+0.1
NEL vs FAR	-0.2*-0.0+0.3		-0.0+0.0+0.1
SEA vs NEL	+0.2*+0.1-0.2		+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the MEL finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Count

114	-121						In		100									5,339	*
113		19	-	3	-	2	In		100		0							5,622	*
112		19	-	4	-	1	In		100		0							9,324	*
111		18	-	4	-	2	In		100	0	0							15,455	*
110		18	-	5	-	1	In		100	0	0							22,663	*
109		17	-	5	-	2	In		100	0	0							18,724
		18	-	6	-	0	In		100	0	0							14,254	*
108		17	-	6	-	1	In		99	0	1							23,295
		16	-	5	-	3	In		99	0	1							19,461	*
107		16	-	6	-	2	In		98	0	2							30,787
		17	-	7	-	0	In		98	0	2							23,750	*
106		16	-	7	-	1	In		96	1	3	0						33,295
		15	-	6	-	3	In		96	1	3	0						31,194	*
105		15	-	7	-	2	In		93	1	6	0						41,496
		16	-	8	-	0	In		93	1	5	0						15,173
		14	-	6	-	4	In		93	1	6	0						16,903	*
104		15	-	8	-	1	In		88	2	10	0						38,410
		14	-	7	-	3	In		88	2	9	0						39,097	*
103		14	-	8	-	2	In		80	4	16	0						44,935
		13	-	7	-	4	In		81	4	15	0						17,364
		15	-	9	-	0	In		80	4	16	0						18,037	*
102		14	-	9	-	1	100.0	%	70	6	23	1	0					36,316
		13	-	8	-	3	100.0		70	6	23	1	0					39,983	*
101		13	-	9	-	2	99.9		57	8	32	3	0					39,519
		12	-	8	-	4	99.9		57	8	32	3	0					16,237
		14	-	10	-	0	100.0		56	8	32	3	0					15,747	*
100		13	-	10	-	1	99.7		42	10	41	6	0					35,239	*
		12	-	9	-	3	99.8		43	10	41	6	0	0				26,375
99		12	-	10	-	2	99.0		28	11	48	13	1	0				29,039
		11	-	9	-	4	99.2		28	11	47	13	1	0				12,028
		13	-	11	-	0	99.0		28	11	48	13	1	0				11,450	*
98		12	-	11	-	1	97.3		16	10	50	22	3	0				19,339
		11	-	10	-	3	97.5		16	10	50	22	2	0				22,696	*
97		11	-	11	-	2	92.9		7	8	46	32	7	0				17,674
		10	-	10	-	4	93.1		7	7	47	32	7	0				14,571	*
96		11	-	12	-	1	84.7		3	5	37	40	14	1				23,474	*
95		10	-	12	-	2	72.8		1	2	25	44	24	3				16,636	*
94		10	-	13	-	1	56.1		0	1	14	40	35	8	0			10,892	*
93		9	-	13	-	2	39.1			0	7	31	44	16	0			6,968	*
92		9	-	14	-	1	24.3		0	0	3	21	46	28	1			4,266	*
91		8	-	14	-	2	12.8				1	12	44	40	3			2,394	*
90		8	-	15	-	1	5.0				0	5	35	53	7			1,345	*
89		7	-	15	-	2	2.5				0	2	24	60	14			684	*
88		7	-	16	-	1	1.3					1	15	59	25			310	*
87		6	-	16	-	2	Out						7	60	32	1		172	*
86		6	-	17	-	1	Out							59	41			63	*
85		5	-	17	-	2	Out						3	39	58			33	*
84		5	-	18	-	1	Out							31	62	8		13	*
83		5	-	19	-	0	Out								100			2	*
73		0	-	24	-	0	Out								12	84	3	121

Total:							96.7	%	67	4	19	7	2	1	0	0	0	888,164

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SEA 4 MEL 2	+0.3
SAI 4 MEL 1	+0.3
MEL 3 HAL 0	-0.2
MEL 8 EST 0	-0.2
NOR 1 SEA 4	-0.1
NOR 2 SAI 3	-0.1
SSK 2 NOR 4	+0.1
FAR 2 NEL 4	+0.1
NEL 5 SEA 3	+0.0
SSK 4 NEL 6	+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
MEL vs SAI	-0.2+0.1+0.5
MEL vs SEA	-0.2+0.2+0.6
EST vs MEL	+0.5+0.1-0.3
HAL vs MEL	+0.4+0.1-0.3
SEA vs NEL	-0.1-0.0+0.1
NEL vs FAR	+0.1-0.0-0.1
NEL vs SSK	+0.0-0.1-0.2
DET vs NEL	-0.1+0.0+0.1
SEA vs NOR	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
NOR vs SSK	+0.0-0.0-0.1
SAI vs NOR	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
EDM vs RAL	+0.0*-0.0-0.1
YUK vs SOU	-0.1-0.0+0.0
SSK vs EDM	-0.1*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18

116	-121						100
115		20	-	2	-	2	100	0
114		20	-	3	-	1	100	0
113		19	-	3	-	2	99	1			0
112		19	-	4	-	1	99	1			0
111		18	-	4	-	2	97	3	0		0
110		18	-	5	-	1	94	5	0		0
109		17	-	5	-	2	90	9	0		0
		18	-	6	-	0	90	9	0		0
108		17	-	6	-	1	85	14	0		1
		16	-	5	-	3	85	14	0		1
107		16	-	6	-	2	76	22	0		2	0
106		16	-	7	-	1	66	30	1		3	0	0
		15	-	6	-	3	66	30	1		3	0	0
105		15	-	7	-	2	53	40	1		6	0	0
		16	-	8	-	0	54	39	1		5	0	0
		14	-	6	-	4	55	39	1		5	0	0
104		15	-	8	-	1	40	47	2	0	10	0	0
		14	-	7	-	3	41	47	2	0	9	0	0
103		14	-	8	-	2	27	53	4	0	14	1	0
		13	-	7	-	4	28	53	4		14	1	0
		15	-	9	-	0	27	52	4	0	14	2	0
102		14	-	9	-	1	17	53	6	0	20	4	1		0
		13	-	8	-	3	16	53	6	0	20	4	1	0	0
101		13	-	9	-	2	8	49	8	0	24	8	3	0	0
		12	-	8	-	4	8	49	8	0	24	8	3	0	0
		14	-	10	-	0	8	48	8	0	24	8	3	0	0
100		13	-	10	-	1	3	39	9	0	25	16	6	0	0
		12	-	9	-	3	3	39	9	0	25	16	6	0	0	0
99		12	-	10	-	2	1	27	10	1	23	25	12	1	1	0
		11	-	9	-	4	1	27	10	0	23	25	12	1	1	0
98		12	-	11	-	1	0	15	9	1	18	33	20	2	3	0
		11	-	10	-	3	0	16	9	1	17	33	20	2	2	0
97		11	-	11	-	2	0	7	7	1	10	36	27	5	7	0
		10	-	10	-	4	0	7	7	1	10	36	27	5	7	0
96		11	-	12	-	1		3	4	1	5	32	30	10	14	1
95		10	-	12	-	2		1	2	1	2	23	28	17	24	3	0
94		10	-	13	-	1		0	1	0	0	14	21	20	35	8	0
93		9	-	13	-	2			0	0	0	7	12	19	44	17	0
92		9	-	14	-	1		0	0	0		3	6	15	46	28	1
91		8	-	14	-	2						1	3	10	44	40	3
90		8	-	15	-	1						0	1	4	35	52	8
89		7	-	15	-	2						0	0	2	24	60	14	0
88		7	-	16	-	1								1	15	59	25	1
87		6	-	16	-	2									6	56	37	1
86		6	-	17	-	1										52	46	2
85		5	-	17	-	2									3	36	42	18
84		5	-	18	-	1										31	54	15
83		5	-	19	-	0											100
73		0	-	24	-	0												2	25	56	17

Total:							36	31	4	0	11	8	5	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0