Nelson Knights Playoff Chances 2010-2011Beat FAR 4-2, Beat DET 4-2, Beat SEA 5-3, Beat SSK 6-4, playoff odds up 21 to 76.1% 72 points 34-22-4 How are these numbers calculated? Big GamesHow we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain Friday | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed | FAR 2 NEL 4 | +6.7 | | +0.2 | | NEL 4 DET 2 | +6.2 | | +0.2 | | NEL 5 SEA 3 | +4.6 | | +0.2 | | SSK 4 NEL 6 | +4.3 | | +0.1 | | LON 3 SOU 5 | +2.5 | | +0.1 | | HAL 5 LON 3 | +2.5 | | +0.1 | | EST 4 LON 6 | -2.4 | | -0.1 | | LON 8 RAL 2 | -2.1 | | -0.0 | | NOR 1 SEA 4 | +2.1 | | +0.1 | | NOR 2 SAI 3 | +2.0 | | +0.1 | | RAL 1 EDM 7 | -1.6 | | -0.1 | | SOU 1 EDM 4 | -1.5 | | -0.1 | | SSK 2 NOR 4 | -1.1 | | -0.0 | | FAR 2 WHI 1 | +0.8 | | | | DET 4 NOR 4 | -0.8 | | -0.0 | | EDM 4 FAR 2 | -0.8 | | | | WHI 5 DET 2 | -0.7 | | | | RAL 3 WHI 0 | +0.6 | | | | WHI 4 SSK 4 | *+0.5 | | | | EDM 9 SSK 1 | -0.4 | | -0.0 | | SEA 4 MEL 2 | +0.3 | | | | SAI 3 GFK 6 | -0.3 | | | | GFK 0 SOU 6 | +0.3 | | | | SAI 4 MEL 1 | +0.2 | | | | MEL 8 EST 0 | *-0.1 | | | | | If winner is:HomeTieAway | Friday | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed | NEL vs SSK | +2.4-2.9-9.3 | | +0.1-0.1-0.4 | | NEL vs FAR | +3.9-1.5-7.4 | | +0.2-0.1-0.3 | | SEA vs NEL | -5.5*+0.2+5.4 | | -0.2-0.0+0.2 | | DET vs NEL | -4.1+1.4+6.5 | | -0.2+0.0+0.3 | | SAI vs NOR | +1.4*-0.3-2.0 | | +0.0*-0.0-0.1 | | EDM vs RAL | -1.3+0.6+2.1 | | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | | NOR vs DET | -1.6*-0.0+1.8 | | -0.1*+0.0+0.1 | | SEA vs NOR | +1.6*+0.1-1.7 | | +0.1*+0.0-0.1 | | EDM vs SOU | -1.5*+0.2+1.8 | | -0.0*+0.0+0.1 | | SSK vs EDM | +2.3+0.8-0.9 | | +0.1+0.0-0.0 | | SOU vs LON | +1.1-0.5-2.1 | | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | RAL vs LON | +1.3-0.5-1.9 | | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | LON vs HAL | -1.1+0.7+2.1 | | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | | FAR vs EDM | +1.7*+0.2-1.4 | | +0.1*+0.0-0.0 | | NOR vs SSK | -0.7+0.9+2.3 | | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | | LON vs EST | -0.9+0.6+2.1 | | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | | MEL vs SEA | -0.2*+0.4+0.6 | | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | | MEL vs SAI | -0.2*+0.0+0.5 | | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | | EST vs MEL | +0.4*+0.2-0.2 | | +0.1+0.0-0.0 | | WHI vs RAL | -0.2*+0.2+0.3 | | | | SSK vs WHI | +0.3*+0.2-0.2 | | | | DET vs WHI | +0.2*-0.0-0.3 | | | | HAL vs MEL | +0.2*+0.3-0.2 | | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What IfChances based on how well the NEL finish out the regular season. Explain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | | TP | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Count | | | | | | | | | | | | | 112 | -120 | | In | 100 | | | | | | | | | 611 | * | 111 | | 19 | - | 4 | - | 1 | In | 98 | | 2 | | | | | | | 635 | * | 110 | | 18 | - | 4 | - | 2 | In | 99 | | 1 | | | | | | | 1,369 | * | 109 | | 18 | - | 5 | - | 1 | In | 96 | | 4 | | | | | | | 2,339 | * | 108 | | 17 | - | 5 | - | 2 | In | 93 | 0 | 7 | 0 | | | | | | 4,449 | * | 107 | | 17 | - | 6 | - | 1 | In | 89 | 0 | 11 | | | | | | | 7,624 | * | 106 | | 16 | - | 6 | - | 2 | In | 82 | 0 | 18 | 0 | | | | | | 12,164 | * | 105 | | 16 | - | 7 | - | 1 | In | 74 | 1 | 25 | 0 | | | | | | 17,938 | * | 104 | | 15 | - | 7 | - | 2 | In | 64 | 1 | 34 | 0 | | | | | | 26,060 | * | 103 | | 15 | - | 8 | - | 1 | In | 53 | 2 | 44 | 1 | | | | | | 17,885 | | | 14 | - | 7 | - | 3 | In | 54 | 2 | 43 | 1 | | | | | | 16,661 | * | 102 | | 14 | - | 8 | - | 2 | 100.0 | % | 41 | 3 | 53 | 3 | 0 | | | | | 25,456 | | | 15 | - | 9 | - | 0 | 100.0 | | 41 | 3 | 53 | 2 | 0 | | | | | 20,226 | * | 101 | | 14 | - | 9 | - | 1 | 99.9 | | 29 | 4 | 61 | 6 | 0 | | | | | 27,632 | | | 13 | - | 8 | - | 3 | 99.9 | | 30 | 4 | 61 | 5 | 0 | | | | | 27,205 | * | 100 | | 13 | - | 9 | - | 2 | 99.7 | | 19 | 4 | 65 | 11 | 0 | 0 | | | | 36,284 | | | 12 | - | 8 | - | 4 | 99.6 | | 19 | 4 | 66 | 11 | 0 | | | | | 28,840 | * | 99 | | 13 | - | 10 | - | 1 | 98.8 | | 11 | 4 | 65 | 19 | 1 | 0 | | | | 34,513 | | | 12 | - | 9 | - | 3 | 98.8 | | 11 | 4 | 65 | 19 | 1 | 0 | | | | 36,315 | * | 98 | | 12 | - | 10 | - | 2 | 96.6 | | 5 | 3 | 59 | 29 | 3 | 0 | | | | 42,914 | | | 11 | - | 9 | - | 4 | 97.0 | | 5 | 3 | 60 | 29 | 3 | 0 | | | | 16,768 | | | 13 | - | 11 | - | 0 | 96.8 | | 5 | 3 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 0 | | | | 17,605 | * | 97 | | 12 | - | 11 | - | 1 | 91.8 | | 2 | 2 | 49 | 39 | 8 | 0 | | | | 37,223 | | | 11 | - | 10 | - | 3 | 92.4 | | 2 | 2 | 50 | 38 | 7 | 0 | | | | 39,526 | * | 96 | | 11 | - | 11 | - | 2 | 84.5 | | 1 | 1 | 37 | 46 | 14 | 1 | | | | 41,634 | | | 10 | - | 10 | - | 4 | 84.3 | | 1 | 1 | 37 | 46 | 15 | 1 | | | | 33,812 | * | 95 | | 11 | - | 12 | - | 1 | 72.2 | | 0 | 0 | 25 | 47 | 25 | 3 | 0 | | | 32,883 | | | 10 | - | 11 | - | 3 | 72.8 | | 0 | 1 | 25 | 47 | 24 | 3 | 0 | | | 35,343 | * | 94 | | 10 | - | 12 | - | 2 | 57.8 | | 0 | 0 | 15 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 0 | | | 33,922 | | | 9 | - | 11 | - | 4 | 57.6 | | 0 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 35 | 7 | 0 | | | 27,244 | * | 93 | | 10 | - | 13 | - | 1 | 41.5 | | 0 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 44 | 14 | 0 | | | 24,494 | | | 9 | - | 12 | - | 3 | 41.8 | | 0 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 43 | 14 | 0 | | | 25,695 | * | 92 | | 9 | - | 13 | - | 2 | 26.7 | | | 0 | 3 | 24 | 47 | 25 | 1 | | | 41,288 | * | 91 | | 9 | - | 14 | - | 1 | 15.1 | | | 0 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 38 | 3 | | | 30,895 | * | 90 | | 8 | - | 14 | - | 2 | 7.2 | | | | 0 | 7 | 36 | 50 | 7 | | | 22,717 | * | 89 | | 8 | - | 15 | - | 1 | 3.1 | | | | 0 | 3 | 25 | 58 | 14 | | | 15,414 | * | 88 | | 7 | - | 15 | - | 2 | 1.1 | | | | 0 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 23 | 0 | | 10,235 | * | 87 | | 7 | - | 16 | - | 1 | 0.4 | | | | | 0 | 9 | 54 | 36 | 0 | | 6,318 | * | 86 | | 6 | - | 16 | - | 2 | 0.1 | | | | | 0 | 4 | 46 | 49 | 1 | | 3,694 | * | 85 | | 6 | - | 17 | - | 1 | 0.0 | | | | | 0 | 1 | 38 | 59 | 1 | | 2,111 | * | 84 | | 5 | - | 17 | - | 2 | Out | | | | | 0 | 30 | 67 | 2 | | 1,146 | * | 83 | | 5 | - | 18 | - | 1 | Out | | | | | 0 | 19 | 74 | 6 | | 537 | * | 82 | | 4 | - | 18 | - | 2 | Out | | | | | | 14 | 76 | 10 | | 252 | * | 81 | | 4 | - | 19 | - | 1 | Out | | | | | | 5 | 80 | 15 | | 100 | * | 80 | | 3 | - | 19 | - | 2 | Out | | | | | | 12 | 62 | 26 | | 50 | * | 79 | | 3 | - | 20 | - | 1 | Out | | | | | | | 50 | 50 | | 10 | * | 78 | | 2 | - | 20 | - | 2 | Out | | | | | | | 20 | 80 | | 5 | * | 77 | | 1 | - | 20 | - | 3 | Out | | | | | | | | 100 | | 1 | | 76 | | 2 | - | 22 | - | 0 | Out | | | | | | | 100 | | | 1 | | 72 | | 0 | - | 24 | - | 0 | Out | | | | | | | 8 | 88 | 3 | 121 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 76.1 | % | 15 | 2 | 36 | 23 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 888,164 | |
* Row combines multiple less frequent records. Chance Will Make Playoffs
LotteryYe of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds. Big GamesFriday | 100.0* | Lottery seed | FAR 2 NEL 4 | -0.4 | | NEL 4 DET 2 | -0.4 | | NEL 5 SEA 3 | -0.3 | | SSK 4 NEL 6 | -0.2 | | NOR 1 SEA 4 | -0.1 | | HAL 5 LON 3 | -0.1 | | NOR 2 SAI 3 | -0.1 | | EST 4 LON 6 | +0.1 | | LON 8 RAL 2 | +0.1 | | LON 3 SOU 5 | -0.1 | | RAL 1 EDM 7 | +0.1 | | SEA 4 MEL 2 | -0.1 | | SSK 2 NOR 4 | +0.1 | | EDM 4 FAR 2 | +0.0 | | MEL 3 HAL 0 | +0.0 | | MEL 8 EST 0 | +0.0 | | DET 4 NOR 4 | +0.0 | | EDM 9 SSK 1 | +0.0 | | | If winner is:HomeTieAway | Friday | 100.0* | Lottery seed | DET vs NEL | +0.4-0.1-0.6 | | SEA vs NEL | +0.4+0.0-0.4 | | NEL vs FAR | -0.3+0.1+0.6 | | NEL vs SSK | -0.2+0.2+0.7 | | MEL vs SEA | +0.1-0.1-0.2 | | EST vs MEL | -0.2-0.0+0.1 | | HAL vs MEL | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | | MEL vs SAI | +0.1-0.0-0.1 | | SEA vs NOR | -0.1*-0.0+0.1 | | NOR vs SSK | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | SSK vs EDM | -0.1-0.0+0.0 | | EDM vs RAL | +0.1-0.0-0.1 | | RAL vs LON | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | | FAR vs EDM | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | | SAI vs NOR | -0.1*+0.0+0.1 | | LON vs HAL | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | LON vs EST | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | NOR vs DET | +0.1*+0.0-0.1 | | EDM vs SOU | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | SOU vs LON | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What If | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | TP | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 115 | -120 | | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 114 | | 20 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 98 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 113 | | 20 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 112 | | 19 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 99 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 111 | | 19 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 95 | 3 | | | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 110 | | 18 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 94 | 5 | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 109 | | 18 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 88 | 8 | | | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 108 | | 17 | - | 5 | - | 2 | 81 | 12 | 0 | | 7 | | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 107 | | 17 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 70 | 18 | 0 | | 11 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 106 | | 16 | - | 6 | - | 2 | 58 | 24 | 0 | | 18 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 105 | | 16 | - | 7 | - | 1 | 44 | 30 | 1 | | 25 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 104 | | 15 | - | 7 | - | 2 | 31 | 33 | 1 | | 33 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 103 | | 15 | - | 8 | - | 1 | 19 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 4 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 102 | | 14 | - | 8 | - | 2 | 10 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 101 | | 14 | - | 9 | - | 1 | 4 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 45 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 13 | - | 8 | - | 3 | 5 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | 13 | - | 9 | - | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 41 | 24 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 12 | - | 8 | - | 4 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 41 | 25 | 11 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 99 | | 13 | - | 10 | - | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 31 | 34 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 12 | - | 9 | - | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 34 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 98 | | 12 | - | 10 | - | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 38 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 11 | - | 9 | - | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 39 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 13 | - | 11 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 38 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 97 | | 12 | - | 11 | - | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 32 | 7 | 8 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | 11 | - | 10 | - | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 38 | 32 | 7 | 7 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 96 | | 11 | - | 11 | - | 2 | | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 34 | 12 | 14 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 10 | - | 10 | - | 4 | | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 33 | 12 | 15 | 1 | | | | | | | | | 95 | | 11 | - | 12 | - | 1 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 29 | 18 | 25 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 10 | - | 11 | - | 3 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 29 | 18 | 24 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | 94 | | 10 | - | 12 | - | 2 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 22 | 35 | 8 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 9 | - | 11 | - | 4 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 22 | 35 | 7 | 0 | | | | | | | | 93 | | 10 | - | 13 | - | 1 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 44 | 15 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 9 | - | 12 | - | 3 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 43 | 15 | 0 | | | | | | | | 92 | | 9 | - | 13 | - | 2 | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 47 | 26 | 1 | | | | | | | | 91 | | 9 | - | 14 | - | 1 | | | | 0 | | 1 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 38 | 3 | | | | | | | | 90 | | 8 | - | 14 | - | 2 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 50 | 7 | 0 | | | | | | | 89 | | 8 | - | 15 | - | 1 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 57 | 15 | 0 | | | | | | | 88 | | 7 | - | 15 | - | 2 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 24 | 0 | | | | | | | 87 | | 7 | - | 16 | - | 1 | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 37 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | 86 | | 6 | - | 16 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 44 | 49 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | 85 | | 6 | - | 17 | - | 1 | | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 35 | 58 | 6 | 0 | | | | | | 84 | | 5 | - | 17 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | 0 | 26 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 0 | | | | | 83 | | 5 | - | 18 | - | 1 | | | | | | | | | 0 | 16 | 62 | 20 | 2 | | | | | | 82 | | 4 | - | 18 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | | 8 | 63 | 26 | 3 | | | | | | 81 | | 4 | - | 19 | - | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 4 | 52 | 36 | 8 | | | | | | 80 | | 3 | - | 19 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | | 6 | 32 | 50 | 6 | 6 | | | | | 79 | | 3 | - | 20 | - | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | 20 | 50 | 30 | | | | | | 78 | | 2 | - | 20 | - | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | 60 | 40 | | | | | | 76 | -77 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | | | | | 72 | | 0 | - | 24 | - | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | 13 | 54 | 31 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | |
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