How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
FAR 2 NEL 4 +6.7
+0.2
NEL 4 DET 2 +6.2
+0.2
NEL 5 SEA 3 +4.6
+0.2
SSK 4 NEL 6 +4.3
+0.1
LON 3 SOU 5 +2.5
+0.1
HAL 5 LON 3 +2.5
+0.1
EST 4 LON 6 -2.4
-0.1
LON 8 RAL 2 -2.1
-0.0
NOR 1 SEA 4 +2.1
+0.1
NOR 2 SAI 3 +2.0
+0.1
RAL 1 EDM 7 -1.6
-0.1
SOU 1 EDM 4 -1.5
-0.1
SSK 2 NOR 4 -1.1
-0.0
FAR 2 WHI 1 +0.8
DET 4 NOR 4 -0.8
-0.0
EDM 4 FAR 2 -0.8
WHI 5 DET 2 -0.7
RAL 3 WHI 0 +0.6
WHI 4 SSK 4 *+0.5
EDM 9 SSK 1 -0.4
-0.0
SEA 4 MEL 2 +0.3
SAI 3 GFK 6 -0.3
GFK 0 SOU 6 +0.3
SAI 4 MEL 1 +0.2
MEL 8 EST 0 *-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
NEL vs SSK+2.4-2.9-9.3
+0.1-0.1-0.4
NEL vs FAR+3.9-1.5-7.4
+0.2-0.1-0.3
SEA vs NEL-5.5*+0.2+5.4
-0.2-0.0+0.2
DET vs NEL-4.1+1.4+6.5
-0.2+0.0+0.3
SAI vs NOR+1.4*-0.3-2.0
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
EDM vs RAL-1.3+0.6+2.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
NOR vs DET-1.6*-0.0+1.8
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
SEA vs NOR+1.6*+0.1-1.7
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
EDM vs SOU-1.5*+0.2+1.8
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
SSK vs EDM+2.3+0.8-0.9
+0.1+0.0-0.0
SOU vs LON+1.1-0.5-2.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
RAL vs LON+1.3-0.5-1.9
+0.0-0.0-0.1
LON vs HAL-1.1+0.7+2.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
FAR vs EDM+1.7*+0.2-1.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.0
NOR vs SSK-0.7+0.9+2.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
LON vs EST-0.9+0.6+2.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
MEL vs SEA-0.2*+0.4+0.6
-0.0+0.0+0.1
MEL vs SAI-0.2*+0.0+0.5
-0.0+0.0+0.1
EST vs MEL+0.4*+0.2-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.0
WHI vs RAL-0.2*+0.2+0.3
SSK vs WHI+0.3*+0.2-0.2
DET vs WHI+0.2*-0.0-0.3
HAL vs MEL+0.2*+0.3-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NEL finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-L-Tplayoffs123456789Count
112-120In100611*
11119-4-1In982635*
11018-4-2In9911,369*
10918-5-1In9642,339*
10817-5-2In930704,449*
10717-6-1In890117,624*
10616-6-2In82018012,164*
10516-7-1In74125017,938*
10415-7-2In64134026,060*
10315-8-1In53244117,885
14-7-3In54243116,661*
10214-8-2100.0%413533025,456
15-9-0100.0413532020,226*
10114-9-199.9294616027,632
13-8-399.9304615027,205*
10013-9-299.719465110036,284
12-8-499.61946611028,840*
9913-10-198.811465191034,513
12-9-398.811465191036,315*
9812-10-296.65359293042,914
11-9-497.05360293016,768
13-11-096.85359303017,605*
9712-11-191.82249398037,223
11-10-392.42250387039,526*
9611-11-284.511374614141,634
10-10-484.311374615133,812*
9511-12-172.2002547253032,883
10-11-372.8012547243035,343*
9410-12-257.8001543358033,922
9-11-457.6001443357027,244*
9310-13-141.5007344414024,494
9-12-341.8007354314025,695*
929-13-226.703244725141,288*
919-14-115.101144438330,895*
908-14-27.2073650722,717*
898-15-13.10325581415,414*
887-15-21.101165923010,235*
877-16-10.409543606,318*
866-16-20.104464913,694*
856-17-10.001385912,111*
845-17-2Out0306721,146*
835-18-1Out019746537*
824-18-2Out147610252*
814-19-1Out58015100*
803-19-2Out12622650*
793-20-1Out505010*
782-20-2Out20805*
771-20-3Out1001
762-22-0Out1001
720-24-0Out8883121
Total:76.1%1523623148200888,164

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
FAR 2 NEL 4 -0.4
NEL 4 DET 2 -0.4
NEL 5 SEA 3 -0.3
SSK 4 NEL 6 -0.2
NOR 1 SEA 4 -0.1
HAL 5 LON 3 -0.1
NOR 2 SAI 3 -0.1
EST 4 LON 6 +0.1
LON 8 RAL 2 +0.1
LON 3 SOU 5 -0.1
RAL 1 EDM 7 +0.1
SEA 4 MEL 2 -0.1
SSK 2 NOR 4 +0.1
EDM 4 FAR 2 +0.0
MEL 3 HAL 0 +0.0
MEL 8 EST 0 +0.0
DET 4 NOR 4 +0.0
EDM 9 SSK 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
DET vs NEL+0.4-0.1-0.6
SEA vs NEL+0.4+0.0-0.4
NEL vs FAR-0.3+0.1+0.6
NEL vs SSK-0.2+0.2+0.7
MEL vs SEA+0.1-0.1-0.2
EST vs MEL-0.2-0.0+0.1
HAL vs MEL-0.1-0.0+0.1
MEL vs SAI+0.1-0.0-0.1
SEA vs NOR-0.1*-0.0+0.1
NOR vs SSK+0.0-0.0-0.1
SSK vs EDM-0.1-0.0+0.0
EDM vs RAL+0.1-0.0-0.1
RAL vs LON-0.1+0.0+0.1
FAR vs EDM-0.1-0.0+0.1
SAI vs NOR-0.1*+0.0+0.1
LON vs HAL+0.0-0.0-0.1
LON vs EST+0.0-0.0-0.1
NOR vs DET+0.1*+0.0-0.1
EDM vs SOU+0.0-0.0-0.1
SOU vs LON-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-L-T123456789101112131415161718
115-120100
11420-2-2982
11320-3-1991
11219-3-2991
11119-4-19532
11018-4-29451
10918-5-18884
10817-5-28112070
10717-6-170180110
10616-6-2582401800
10516-7-1443012510
10415-7-2313313320
10315-8-11934204041
10214-8-2103130458300
10114-9-1425404516600
13-8-3525404516500
10013-9-211840412411000
12-8-42174041251100
9913-10-101140313418110
12-9-301140323418110
9812-10-20530213826330
11-9-40530213926330
13-11-00530213827330
9712-11-10220113832780
11-10-30220123832770
9611-11-21105323412141
10-10-41105313312151
9511-12-100022329182530
10-11-300022329182430
9410-12-200011422223580
9-11-400011421223570
9310-13-100007122244150
9-12-300007132143150
929-13-2000361747261
919-14-10131144383
908-14-20016365070
898-15-10032557150
887-15-20011659240
877-16-1009533710
866-16-204444930
856-17-101355860
845-17-2026611210
835-18-101662202
824-18-2863263
814-19-1452368
803-19-26325066
793-20-1205030
782-20-26040
76-77100
720-24-021354311
Total:69201719157148200000