SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Being true to yourself,
80’s style

Edmonton Winter Hawks Playoff Chances 2010-2011

Beat FAR 4-2, Beat SSK 9-1, Beat RAL 7-1, Beat SOU 4-1, playoff odds up 25 to 39.3%

66 points 32-26-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
SOU 1 EDM 4	+5.0		+0.2
RAL 1 EDM 7	+4.8		+0.2
EDM 4 FAR 2	+2.5		+0.1
EDM 9 SSK 1	+1.5		+0.1
FAR 2 NEL 4	-1.3
NOR 1 SEA 4	+1.2
HAL 5 LON 3	+1.1
NOR 2 SAI 3	+1.1
LON 3 SOU 5	+1.1
NEL 4 DET 2	-1.1
EST 4 LON 6	-1.1
LON 8 RAL 2	-1.0
NEL 5 SEA 3	-0.9		-0.0
SSK 4 NEL 6	-0.8		-0.0
SSK 2 NOR 4	-0.6
FAR 2 WHI 1	+0.4		+0.0
WHI 5 DET 2	-0.3		-0.0
RAL 3 WHI 0	+0.3		+0.0
WHI 4 SSK 4	*+0.2		+0.0
DET 4 NOR 4	*-0.1
MEL 3 HAL 0	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
EDM vs SOU	+6.0-0.9-7.5		+0.2-0.0-0.3
SSK vs EDM	-9.6-3.1+3.8		-0.3-0.1+0.1
FAR vs EDM	-7.4-0.8+6.0		-0.3-0.0+0.2
EDM vs RAL	+5.0-1.7-8.4		+0.2-0.1-0.3
SEA vs NOR	+2.4*-0.3-2.6		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
SAI vs NOR	+2.1*-0.4-2.9		+0.1-0.0-0.1
NOR vs SSK	-1.1+1.3+3.9		-0.0+0.0+0.1
NOR vs DET	-2.3*+0.3+2.5		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
RAL vs LON	+1.7*-0.3-2.4		+0.1-0.0-0.1
SOU vs LON	+1.3-0.5-2.4		+0.0-0.0-0.1
NEL vs SSK	-0.8+1.0+3.0		-0.0+0.0+0.1
LON vs EST	-1.2+1.0+2.6		-0.0+0.0+0.1
NEL vs FAR	-1.3+0.6+2.4		-0.0+0.0+0.1
LON vs HAL	-1.2*+0.3+2.4		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
DET vs NEL	+1.4*-0.4-2.2		+0.0-0.0-0.1
SEA vs NEL	+1.8*-0.2-1.7		+0.1-0.0-0.0
EST vs MEL	+0.7*-0.0-0.3
MEL vs SEA	-0.2*+0.2+0.6
HAL vs MEL	+0.5*-0.1-0.3
MEL vs SAI	-0.2*+0.2+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the EDM finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Count

111	-114						In		100									134	*
110		21	-	1	-	2	In		97		3							31	*
109		21	-	2	-	1	In		94		6							89	*
108		20	-	2	-	2	In		94		6							266	*
107		20	-	3	-	1	In		91	0	9							511	*
106		19	-	3	-	2	In		82	0	17	0						1,260	*
105		19	-	4	-	1	In		74	0	25	1						2,469	*
104		18	-	4	-	2	In		62	1	36	2						4,589	*
103		18	-	5	-	1	100.0	%	50	2	45	4	0					7,489	*
102		17	-	5	-	2	99.8		36	2	54	7	0					12,342	*
101		17	-	6	-	1	99.4		24	3	58	14	1					18,605	*
100		16	-	6	-	2	98.3		15	3	58	23	2	0				27,213	*
99		16	-	7	-	1	95.5		7	2	52	33	4	0				36,217	*
98		15	-	7	-	2	90.0		3	2	42	43	10	0				26,513
		16	-	8	-	0	90.1		3	2	43	43	10	0				20,662	*
97		15	-	8	-	1	81.3		1	1	30	49	17	1				28,854
		14	-	7	-	3	81.4		1	1	31	49	17	1				27,739	*
96		14	-	8	-	2	68.6		0	0	19	49	28	3	0			66,661	*
95		14	-	9	-	1	54.0		0	0	11	43	38	8	0			36,064
		13	-	8	-	3	53.2		0	0	10	43	39	8	0			36,894	*
94		13	-	9	-	2	38.8		0	0	5	34	47	14	0			59,952	*
		14	-	10	-	0	38.8			0	5	33	46	15	0			17,863	*
93		13	-	10	-	1	25.2			0	2	23	50	24	0			36,979
		12	-	9	-	3	24.5				2	23	51	24	0			39,678	*
92		12	-	10	-	2	13.8			0	1	13	48	37	1			41,241
		11	-	9	-	4	13.9				1	13	47	37	2			32,926	*
91		12	-	11	-	1	7.0				0	7	40	49	4			32,091
		11	-	10	-	3	6.8				0	7	40	49	4			35,121	*
90		11	-	11	-	2	3.1				0	3	30	58	8	0		59,465	*
89		11	-	12	-	1	1.1					1	20	63	15	0		28,416	*
		10	-	11	-	3	1.1				0	1	20	63	16	0		20,481
88		10	-	12	-	2	0.4					0	12	63	25	0		22,045
		9	-	11	-	4	0.3					0	12	64	24	0		17,515	*
87		10	-	13	-	1	0.1					0	6	58	35	0		29,451	*
86		9	-	13	-	2	0.0					0	3	50	47	0		21,534	*
85		9	-	14	-	1	Out						1	40	57	1		15,065	*
84		8	-	14	-	2	Out						1	30	67	3		9,721	*
83		8	-	15	-	1	Out						0	21	74	4		6,039	*
82		7	-	15	-	2	Out						0	15	77	8		3,665	*
81		7	-	16	-	1	Out							10	77	13	0	2,034	*
80		6	-	16	-	2	Out							5	73	21		1,106	*
79		6	-	17	-	1	Out							2	67	31		543	*
78		5	-	17	-	2	Out							1	57	42		305	*
77		5	-	18	-	1	Out							1	53	46		135	*
76		4	-	18	-	2	Out								49	51		39	*
75		4	-	19	-	1	Out								47	53		15	*
74		3	-	19	-	2	Out								30	70		10	*
73		3	-	20	-	1	Out								33	33	33	3	*
71	-72						Out									100		3	*
66		0	-	24	-	0	Out									71	29	121

Total:							39.3	%	3	0	14	22	27	26	8	0	0	888,164

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
SOU 1 EDM 4	-0.3
RAL 1 EDM 7	-0.3
EDM 4 FAR 2	-0.2
EDM 9 SSK 1	-0.1
LON 3 SOU 5	-0.1
WHI 5 DET 2	+0.0
EST 4 LON 6	+0.0
LON 8 RAL 2	+0.0
RAL 3 WHI 0	-0.0
SSK 4 NEL 6	+0.0
WHI 4 SSK 4	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
EDM vs SOU	-0.3+0.1+0.4
EDM vs RAL	-0.3+0.1+0.4
FAR vs EDM	+0.4+0.0-0.3
SSK vs EDM	+0.5+0.2-0.2
NOR vs SSK	+0.0-0.0-0.1
SEA vs NOR	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NEL vs SSK	+0.0-0.0-0.1
NEL vs FAR	+0.1-0.0-0.1
RAL vs LON	-0.1+0.0+0.1
LON vs EST	+0.0-0.0-0.1
SEA vs NEL	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
SAI vs NOR	-0.1+0.0+0.1
NOR vs DET	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
LON vs HAL	+0.0*-0.0-0.1
SOU vs LON	-0.0+0.0+0.1
DET vs NEL	-0.1+0.0+0.1
EST vs MEL	-0.1*-0.0+0.0
MEL vs SEA	+0.0-0.0-0.1
HAL vs MEL	-0.1*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18

113	-114						100
112		23	-	1	-	0	83	17
111		22	-	1	-	1	100
110		21	-	1	-	2	90	6			3
109		21	-	2	-	1	88	7			6
108		20	-	2	-	2	84	10			6
107		20	-	3	-	1	74	17	0		9
106		19	-	3	-	2	60	22	0		17	0	0
105		19	-	4	-	1	48	26	0		25	1	1
104		18	-	4	-	2	34	28	1		34	2	2
103		18	-	5	-	1	20	30	2		41	4	4	0	0
102		17	-	5	-	2	10	26	2		46	8	7		0
101		17	-	6	-	1	4	20	3	0	43	15	14	0	1
100		16	-	6	-	2	2	13	3	0	36	22	23	0	2	0
99		16	-	7	-	1	0	7	2	0	25	27	32	1	4	0
98		15	-	7	-	2	0	3	2	0	15	28	39	3	10	0
97		15	-	8	-	1	0	1	1	0	7	23	42	7	18	1
		14	-	7	-	3	0	1	1	0	7	24	42	7	17	1
96		14	-	8	-	2		0	0	0	3	17	37	11	28	3	0
95		14	-	9	-	1		0	0	0	1	10	28	14	39	7	0
		13	-	8	-	3		0	0	0	1	9	28	14	39	8	0
94		13	-	9	-	2		0	0	0	0	5	19	15	47	14	0
93		13	-	10	-	1			0	0	0	2	10	13	50	24	0
		12	-	9	-	3					0	2	10	13	51	24	0
92		12	-	10	-	2			0		0	1	4	9	48	37	1
		11	-	9	-	4						1	4	9	47	37	2
91		12	-	11	-	1						0	2	5	40	49	4
		11	-	10	-	3						0	2	5	40	49	4	0
90		11	-	11	-	2						0	1	2	30	59	8	0
		10	-	10	-	4						0	1	3	30	58	9	0
89		11	-	12	-	1						0	0	1	20	63	16	0
88		10	-	12	-	2							0	0	12	63	25	0
87		10	-	13	-	1							0	0	6	57	36	1
86		9	-	13	-	2								0	3	48	47	2	0
85		9	-	14	-	1									1	37	57	5	0
84		8	-	14	-	2									0	27	62	11	0
83		8	-	15	-	1									0	17	64	18	1	0
82		7	-	15	-	2									0	11	60	26	3	0
81		7	-	16	-	1										6	51	36	6	0
80		6	-	16	-	2										3	40	44	13	1
79		6	-	17	-	1										0	26	49	22	3
78		5	-	17	-	2											18	41	34	7	1
77		5	-	18	-	1											7	41	39	13	1
76		4	-	18	-	2											8	33	38	18	3
75		4	-	19	-	1												27	47	27
74		3	-	19	-	2													50	40	10
73		3	-	20	-	1													33	67
72		3	-	21	-	0														50	50
71		2	-	21	-	1															100
66		0	-	24	-	0														8	62	29	1

Total:							1	2	0	0	6	8	15	7	27	25	8	1	0	0	0	0	0