Minnesota Twins Playoff Chances 2014

Beat Astros 3-1, playoff odds up 0.01 to 0.04%
54-65   .454

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Twins 4 Royals 3 +2.3
+0.3
Padres 5 Tigers 1 +0.4
Angels 14 Mets 2 -0.2
Reds 12 Rays 4 *+0.2
MondayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Twins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
9743-0In5932300
9036-7In1001
8935-8In1471147
8834-987.2%10621510339
8733-1073.635615197140
8632-1142.203309332050502
8531-1220.2164283614101,602
8430-136.961133933804,304
8329-141.61042342254010,766
8228-150.2018334016223,970
8127-160.00021640348048,188
8026-170.00005274621088,256
7925-18Out0112453930146,470
7824-19Out004315690220,273
7723-20Out011761201301,864
7622-21Out007553450376,806
7521-22Out024146110429,004
7420-23Out012651220443,233
7319-24Out01449360417,844
7218-25Out06415210357,829
7117-26Out02296540280,279
7016-27Out1187390198,117
6915-28Out01074160126,722
6814-29Out046827173,696
6713-30Out025540338,086
6612-31Out04152617,831
6511-32Out02759147,494
6410-33Out1560252,824
639-34Out65241925
628-35Out34650242
617-36Out336775
606-37Out99111
540-43Out0100300
Total:0.0%0000000128273128303,618,000
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Twins 4 Royals 3 -0.5
MondayNone

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
9743-0583111
9036-7100
8935-8432929
8834-932126261313
8733-1051721246234
8632-111391713331950
8531-1201711273018410
8430-1300159273018610
8329-1400121023292210310
8228-15001718282515510
8127-1600014142528197200
8026-1700003112329229200
7925-180002922312410200
7824-1900282333258100
7723-200029263522500
7622-2100212313616300
7521-2200317373110100
7420-2300162539235000
7319-2400112343614200
7218-250042039288100
7117-260018303720400
7016-2700316353212100
6915-28006243826500
6814-290021232381520
6713-3000419422870
6612-310183240172
6511-32021842307
6410-3308334216
639-3402194434
628-3594645
617-3633364
606-372773
540-430100
Total:00000000000000112347111517161173100