Chicago Cubs Playoff Chances 2014

Tied with Brewers 0-0 (Bot 1st), playoff odds down 0.0007 to 0.01%

51-67 .432

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cardinals 6 Cubs 4	-1.7		-0.2
Angels 14 Mets 2	+0.1

Monday	None

What If

Chances based on how well the Cubs finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

95		44	-	0	In		88	12														300
87		36	-	8	In				50		50											2
86		35	-	9	In					33	67											3
85		34	-	10	66.7	%				33	33	33										18
84		33	-	11	47.5				3	10	35	31	21									80
83		32	-	12	18.8				2	2	15	37	31	12	2							292
82		31	-	13	5.9					0	6	21	37	28	7	1						880
81		30	-	14	0.4						0	7	25	38	23	6	1					2,574
80		29	-	15	Out							1	10	30	37	18	4	0				6,739
79		28	-	16	Out							0	2	14	35	33	14	2				15,690
78		27	-	17	Out							0	0	4	21	39	29	7	0			32,466
77		26	-	18	Out								0	1	8	30	42	19	0	0		61,936
76		25	-	19	Out								0	0	2	16	44	36	1	0		107,684
75		24	-	20	Out									0	0	7	34	55	4	0		169,626
74		23	-	21	Out									0	0	2	21	66	10	0		246,205
73		22	-	22	Out										0	0	10	68	20	2	0	324,095
72		21	-	23	Out										0	0	4	59	32	4	0	391,732
71		20	-	24	Out											0	1	45	43	10	0	431,917
70		19	-	25	Out											0	0	30	49	20	1	435,165
69		18	-	26	Out												0	17	47	33	3	399,544
68		17	-	27	Out												0	8	38	47	7	333,897
67		16	-	28	Out													3	26	56	15	254,795
66		15	-	29	Out													1	15	57	27	175,737
65		14	-	30	Out													0	7	52	41	110,172
64		13	-	31	Out													0	3	41	56	61,991
63		12	-	32	Out													0	1	29	70	31,345
62		11	-	33	Out														0	19	81	14,130
61		10	-	34	Out														0	11	89	5,813
60		9	-	35	Out															6	94	2,068
59		8	-	36	Out															2	98	595
58		7	-	37	Out															1	99	157
51	-57				Out																100	352	*

Total:					0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	33	29	22	7	3,618,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cardinals 6 Cubs 4	+0.5

Monday	None

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

95		44	-	0	1	54	37	8	0
87		36	-	8									100
86		35	-	9								33	33	33
85		34	-	10									33	33	6	22	6
84		33	-	11								1	10	36	1	10	21	9	10	1
83		32	-	12									3	16	1	4	24	25	20	7	1	0
82		31	-	13									0	6		1	7	18	31	21	10	4	1
81		30	-	14										0			1	5	16	25	27	18	6	1	0
80		29	-	15													0	0	3	12	24	29	21	9	1	0
79		28	-	16														0	0	2	9	22	31	24	10	2	0	0
78		27	-	17															0	0	2	8	22	32	25	10	2	0
77		26	-	18																0	0	2	8	23	33	25	8	1	0
76		25	-	19																	0	0	2	9	26	35	22	6	1	0
75		24	-	20																		0	0	2	12	30	35	17	3	0	0
74		23	-	21																		0	0	0	4	17	36	31	11	1	0	0
73		22	-	22																			0	0	1	7	25	38	24	5	0	0
72		21	-	23																				0	0	2	12	33	36	15	2	0	0
71		20	-	24																					0	0	4	21	39	28	7	0	0
70		19	-	25																					0	0	1	9	32	38	18	2	0	0
69		18	-	26																						0	0	3	19	39	32	7	0	0
68		17	-	27																						0	0	1	8	30	42	17	2	0
67		16	-	28																							0	0	3	17	43	30	7	0
66		15	-	29																								0	1	7	33	41	16	2
65		14	-	30																									0	2	20	44	29	5
64		13	-	31																									0	0	9	35	43	13
63		12	-	32																										0	3	23	48	25
62		11	-	33																										0	1	12	45	42
61		10	-	34																											0	5	36	58
60		9	-	35																											0	2	25	73
59		8	-	36																												0	15	85
58		7	-	37																												1	8	92
51	-57																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	0	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	14	18	19	16	9	4	1