Miami Marlins Playoff Chances 2014

Losing to Cardinals 0-2 (Top 5th), playoff odds down 0.1 to 5.1%

59-60 .496

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Phillies 4 Marlins 3	-2.2		-0.3
Angels 14 Mets 2	+0.2

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Marlins 2 Nationals 9	-2.8		-0.3
Brewers 0 Cardinals 4	-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Marlins finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

102	43	-	0	In		100	0														300
94	35	-	8	In		60	40														10
93	34	-	9	In		38	60	3													40
92	33	-	10	In		25	55	8	12												177
91	32	-	11	In		11	58	12	19												621
90	31	-	12	In		5	42	22	29	2											1,665
89	30	-	13	99.7	%	2	26	27	38	7	0										4,722
88	29	-	14	97.7		0	11	27	41	18	2	0									11,798
87	28	-	15	90.8		0	4	22	33	32	8	1	0								25,767
86	27	-	16	73.3			1	14	20	38	22	4	0	0							52,026
85	26	-	17	47.3			0	8	8	31	37	14	1	0							94,879
84	25	-	18	22.4			0	3	2	17	39	31	7	0	0						156,596
83	24	-	19	7.2				1	0	6	27	42	20	3	0	0					232,590
82	23	-	20	1.6				0	0	1	12	38	36	12	1	0					316,214
81	22	-	21	0.2				0	0	0	3	22	41	27	6	0	0				388,877
80	21	-	22	0.0				0		0	1	9	32	40	17	2	0				435,880
79	20	-	23	0.0						0	0	2	17	41	32	8	0				445,438
78	19	-	24	Out							0	0	6	30	43	19	0	0			414,129
77	18	-	25	Out								0	2	17	44	36	1	0			347,802
76	17	-	26	Out								0	0	7	35	53	5	0	0		266,555
75	16	-	27	Out									0	2	22	63	13	1	0		183,361
74	15	-	28	Out									0	0	10	62	24	3	0		115,591
73	14	-	29	Out										0	4	49	37	9	1	0	65,241
72	13	-	30	Out										0	1	32	44	20	3	0	33,039
71	12	-	31	Out											0	16	41	33	9	0	15,079
70	11	-	32	Out											0	7	30	42	20	1	6,226
69	10	-	33	Out												2	15	41	37	5	2,174
68	9	-	34	Out												0	8	30	49	13	659
67	8	-	35	Out													2	19	55	24	185
66	7	-	36	Out														7	33	60	45
65	6	-	37	Out															45	55	11
64	5	-	38	Out															33	67	3
59	0	-	43	Out															1	99	300

Total:				5.1	%	0	0	1	1	3	6	12	16	20	20	17	3	1	0	0	3,618,000

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phillies 4 Marlins 3	+0.6

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Marlins 2 Nationals 9	+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

102	43	-	0	58	42
94	35	-	8		60	20	10	10
93	34	-	9		13	53	28	5	3
92	33	-	10		2	18	36	32	11	1	1
91	32	-	11		0	8	24	37	22	7	1	0
90	31	-	12		0	2	11	25	33	21	8	1
89	30	-	13		0	0	2	12	26	32	20	7	1	0
88	29	-	14				0	2	10	25	32	22	6	2	0	0
87	28	-	15				0	0	2	9	25	34	21	6	3	1	0
86	27	-	16					0	0	2	9	27	35	10	11	5	1	0	0
85	26	-	17						0	0	2	11	34	8	18	17	8	2	0	0	0
84	25	-	18							0	0	3	19	3	14	25	22	10	3	0	0	0
83	24	-	19								0	0	7	1	5	17	28	26	13	4	0	0	0
82	23	-	20								0	0	2	0	1	5	16	28	28	15	5	1	0	0
81	22	-	21									0	0	0	0	1	4	15	27	29	17	5	1	0	0
80	21	-	22										0		0	0	1	4	13	27	31	19	6	1	0	0
79	20	-	23										0			0	0	0	3	12	27	32	19	6	1	0	0
78	19	-	24														0	0	0	3	12	28	33	19	4	0	0
77	18	-	25															0	0	0	3	14	31	34	15	3	0	0
76	17	-	26																	0	0	4	17	36	30	10	2	0	0
75	16	-	27																	0	0	1	6	24	37	24	7	1	0
74	15	-	28																			0	1	10	29	35	19	5	0	0
73	14	-	29																			0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	0
72	13	-	30																				0	0	5	20	35	28	11	2	0
71	12	-	31																					0	1	8	24	36	25	7	0	0
70	11	-	32																					0	0	2	11	29	36	19	3	0
69	10	-	33																						0	0	3	15	36	34	10	1
68	9	-	34																								1	5	24	43	24	3	0
67	8	-	35																									1	14	33	38	14	1
66	7	-	36																											13	38	38	11
65	6	-	37																											9	9	55	27
64	5	-	38																											33	67
59	0	-	43																													4	96

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	5	7	8	10	11	12	12	10	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0