Chicago White Sox Playoff Chances 2014

Lost to Giants 1-7, playoff odds down 0.04 to 0.05%

57-64 .471

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
White Sox 4 Indians 3	+2.6		+0.3
Padres 5 Tigers 1	+0.3
Angels 14 Mets 2	*-0.1

Monday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the White Sox finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

98	41	-	0	In		43	56	1													300
90	33	-	8	In			25	75													4
89	32	-	9	81.0	%		24	43		14	19										21
88	31	-	10	78.2			6	54		18	21	1									78
87	30	-	11	52.0			2	36	0	14	36	11	1								304
86	29	-	12	32.3			1	23	0	8	36	27	4	0							962
85	28	-	13	14.7			0	11		3	29	39	16	1	0						2,770
84	27	-	14	4.3				3		1	15	40	33	8	1						7,402
83	26	-	15	0.9				1		0	5	24	44	23	4	0					17,526
82	25	-	16	0.1				0		0	1	9	34	40	14	1					37,466
81	24	-	17	0.0				0			0	2	18	42	32	5	0				71,024
80	23	-	18	Out							0	0	6	30	47	17	0	0			124,163
79	22	-	19	Out								0	1	14	47	35	2	0			194,533
78	21	-	20	Out									0	5	35	53	7	0			278,431
77	20	-	21	Out									0	1	19	61	17	1	0		362,043
76	19	-	22	Out									0	0	8	57	30	4	0		425,794
75	18	-	23	Out									0	0	3	44	43	10	0		453,966
74	17	-	24	Out										0	1	29	50	20	0		440,330
73	16	-	25	Out											0	17	49	34	0		385,852
72	15	-	26	Out											0	8	42	49	1	0	305,966
71	14	-	27	Out											0	3	30	63	4	0	217,663
70	13	-	28	Out												1	19	71	8	0	139,885
69	12	-	29	Out												0	10	73	16	0	80,146
68	11	-	30	Out												0	5	67	28	1	41,217
67	10	-	31	Out												0	2	55	40	3	18,656
66	9	-	32	Out													1	40	53	6	7,534
65	8	-	33	Out													0	26	60	14	2,622
64	7	-	34	Out														15	60	25	788
63	6	-	35	Out														10	55	35	207
62	5	-	36	Out														3	44	53	36
61	4	-	37	Out															20	80	10
59	2	-	39	Out																100	1
57	0	-	41	Out															4	96	300

Total:				0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	11	31	29	21	2	0	3,618,000

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
White Sox 4 Indians 3	-0.5

Monday	None

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

98	41	-	0	40	53	7
90	33	-	8					25	25	50
89	32	-	9					10	24	33	10	5		19
88	31	-	10					1	6	28	26	13	4	22
87	30	-	11						2	11	20	15	4	37	10	1
86	29	-	12						0	2	8	12	9	36	27	4	1
85	28	-	13							0	1	5	8	28	35	18	4	0
84	27	-	14							0	0	1	3	10	31	31	17	6	1	0
83	26	-	15									0	1	2	12	26	29	20	8	2	0	0
82	25	-	16									0	0	0	2	9	21	28	24	12	4	1	0	0
81	24	-	17										0	0	0	1	6	16	26	26	16	6	1	0	0
80	23	-	18												0	0	1	4	13	24	28	20	8	2	0	0
79	22	-	19													0	0	0	3	10	23	30	23	9	2	0	0
78	21	-	20														0	0	0	2	9	22	32	25	9	1	0	0
77	20	-	21															0	0	0	2	9	24	35	24	6	0	0
76	19	-	22																0	0	0	2	11	29	38	17	3	0	0
75	18	-	23																	0	0	0	3	15	37	33	10	1	0	0
74	17	-	24																		0	0	0	5	25	40	24	5	0	0
73	16	-	25																			0	0	1	11	34	37	14	2	0	0
72	15	-	26																				0	0	3	21	40	27	8	1	0
71	14	-	27																					0	1	8	31	37	19	4	0	0
70	13	-	28																						0	3	17	35	32	12	2	0
69	12	-	29																						0	1	7	24	37	25	6	1	0
68	11	-	30																							0	2	12	30	37	16	3	0
67	10	-	31																							0	0	4	19	38	29	9	1
66	9	-	32																								0	1	8	29	40	20	2
65	8	-	33																									0	2	16	37	36	8
64	7	-	34																										0	7	28	48	17
63	6	-	35																											2	15	52	30
62	5	-	36																												6	47	47
61	4	-	37																												10	30	60
59	2	-	39																														100
57	0	-	41																													3	97

Total:				0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	18	15	9	5	2	1	0	0