Houston Astros Playoff Chances 2014

Lost to Twins 1-3, playoff odds unchanged at 0.008%

50-71 .413

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Rangers 1 Astros 0	-1.2		-0.2
Angels 14 Mets 2	-0.1

Monday	None

What If

Chances based on how well the Astros finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

91		41	-	0	98.3	%		1	0	59	39	2										300
83		33	-	8	Out									100								1
81		31	-	10	Out								50	25	25							4
80		30	-	11	Out									4	40	40	16					25
79		29	-	12	Out									5	22	38	34	1				85
78		28	-	13	Out									0	4	35	50	10	1			319
77		27	-	14	Out										2	20	49	26	3			878
76		26	-	15	Out										0	7	41	41	10	1		2,759
75		25	-	16	Out											2	28	46	22	3		7,023
74		24	-	17	Out											0	14	43	34	8	0	16,919
73		23	-	18	Out											0	6	32	45	18	0	36,295
72		22	-	19	Out											0	2	19	47	33	0	69,911
71		21	-	20	Out												0	9	41	49	0	123,419
70		20	-	21	Out												0	4	30	66	0	196,383
69		19	-	22	Out												0	1	19	78	1	284,356
68		18	-	23	Out												0	0	10	86	3	370,702
67		17	-	24	Out												0	0	5	88	8	436,883
66		16	-	25	Out													0	2	83	15	468,367
65		15	-	26	Out													0	1	74	25	450,216
64		14	-	27	Out														0	61	39	389,882
63		13	-	28	Out														0	46	54	301,569
62		12	-	29	Out														0	31	69	208,704
61		11	-	30	Out														0	19	81	128,630
60		10	-	31	Out														0	10	90	70,099
59		9	-	32	Out															4	96	33,299
58		8	-	33	Out															2	98	13,979
57		7	-	34	Out															1	99	4,803
56		6	-	35	Out															0	100	1,441
50	-55				Out																100	749	*

Total:					0.0	%		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	65	25	3,618,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rangers 1 Astros 0	+0.5

Monday	None

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

91		41	-	0	0	1	8	24	36	22	8	1			2
83		33	-	8														100
81		31	-	10														25	50			25
80		30	-	11															8	8	36	12	20	12	4
79		29	-	12														1		4	15	25	24	21	9	1
78		28	-	13																	3	8	23	31	24	9	2	0
77		27	-	14																	0	3	8	26	31	22	8	1
76		26	-	15																		0	2	10	26	34	21	6	1
75		25	-	16																			0	2	13	30	34	17	3	0	0
74		24	-	17																			0	0	3	17	35	31	12	2	0
73		23	-	18																				0	1	6	22	36	26	9	1	0
72		22	-	19																					0	1	10	28	35	20	5	0	0
71		21	-	20																					0	0	3	15	33	33	15	2	0
70		20	-	21																						0	1	5	21	36	28	8	0	0
69		19	-	22																						0	0	1	10	29	39	19	2	0
68		18	-	23																							0	0	3	17	40	34	6	0
67		17	-	24																							0	0	1	7	30	46	15	1
66		16	-	25																								0	0	2	18	49	28	3
65		15	-	26																								0	0	1	8	41	42	9
64		14	-	27																									0	0	3	27	51	19
63		13	-	28																										0	1	15	50	34
62		12	-	29																										0	0	6	41	52
61		11	-	30																											0	2	28	70
60		10	-	31																											0	1	16	83
59		9	-	32																												0	8	92
58		8	-	33																												0	3	97
57		7	-	34																													1	99
56		6	-	35																													0	100
50	-55																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	16	27	25	15