Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 2015-3 50/50

Lost to Brewers 1-4, playoff odds down 0.003 to 0.002%

52-76 .406

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Braves 4 Reds 8	+2.8		+0.3

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Braves 5 Reds 0	-3.0		-0.3
Cubs 3 Brewers 5	+0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

85		33	-	0	28.9	%				0	29	52	18	1	0							176,865
84		32	-	1	16.7						17	33	17	33								6
83		31	-	2	3.6						4	24	51	18	4							139
82		30	-	3	1.0						1	12	43	36	8	0						1,365
81		29	-	4	0.1						0	3	26	47	22	2						10,249
80		28	-	5	Out							1	11	42	39	7	0					59,458
79		27	-	6	0.0						0	0	4	28	50	18	0					277,733
78		26	-	7	Out							0	1	14	50	35	0	0				1,066,672
77		25	-	8	Out							0	0	5	40	53	1	0				3,459,012
76		24	-	9	Out								0	2	27	69	3	0	0			9,600,939
75		23	-	10	Out								0	0	14	78	8	0	0			23,022,142
74		22	-	11	Out								0	0	6	75	18	1	0	0		48,109,935
73		21	-	12	Out									0	2	61	31	5	0	0	0	88,162,256
72		20	-	13	Out									0	0	40	42	15	2	0	0	142,379,000
71		19	-	14	Out									0	0	20	42	29	8	1	0	203,344,053
70		18	-	15	Out										0	7	29	39	21	4	0	257,539,569
69		17	-	16	Out										0	2	13	35	36	13	1	289,697,158
68		16	-	17	Out										0	0	4	21	40	30	5	289,716,290
67		15	-	18	Out											0	1	8	31	44	16	257,535,650
66		14	-	19	Out											0	0	2	16	47	35	203,354,946
65		13	-	20	Out											0	0	0	6	38	56	142,379,533
64		12	-	21	Out												0	0	2	24	74	88,161,531
63		11	-	22	Out												0	0	0	13	87	48,119,312
62		10	-	23	Out												0	0	0	6	94	23,027,919
61		9	-	24	Out														0	2	98	9,598,731
60		8	-	25	Out														0	1	99	3,459,718
59		7	-	26	Out														0	0	100	1,066,575
58		6	-	27	Out															0	100	277,125
57		5	-	28	Out															0	100	59,277
56		4	-	29	Out															0	100	10,341
52	-55				Out																100	178,401	*

Total:					0.0	%				0	0	0	0	0	1	11	14	17	19	20	17	2,133,851,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Braves 4 Reds 8	-0.7

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Braves 5 Reds 0	+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

85		33	-	0					0	0	2	8	12	7	52	17	2	0	0	0
84		32	-	1										17	33	17	33
83		31	-	2										4	14	32	34	12	3	1	1
82		30	-	3									0	1	2	13	24	30	19	9	2	0	0
81		29	-	4										0	0	2	9	20	27	24	13	5	1	0	0
80		28	-	5											0	0	1	5	14	24	26	19	8	2	0	0	0
79		27	-	6										0		0	0	0	3	9	20	27	23	12	4	1	0	0
78		26	-	7													0	0	0	1	6	16	27	27	17	6	1	0	0
77		25	-	8														0	0	0	1	3	12	26	30	20	7	1	0	0
76		24	-	9															0	0	0	0	2	11	26	33	21	6	1	0	0
75		23	-	10																0	0	0	0	2	11	28	35	19	4	0	0	0
74		22	-	11																	0	0	0	0	2	13	33	35	14	2	0	0	0
73		21	-	12																		0	0	0	0	3	18	39	30	9	1	0	0
72		20	-	13																			0	0	0	0	5	25	38	24	7	1	0	0
71		19	-	14																				0	0	0	1	10	29	36	20	5	0	0
70		18	-	15																					0	0	0	2	13	32	34	16	3	0
69		17	-	16																						0	0	0	3	16	35	33	11	1
68		16	-	17																							0	0	0	5	22	41	28	5
67		15	-	18																							0	0	0	1	8	32	44	15
66		14	-	19																								0	0	0	2	16	48	34
65		13	-	20																									0	0	0	6	38	55
64		12	-	21																										0	0	2	24	74
63		11	-	22																										0	0	0	13	87
62		10	-	23																										0	0	0	6	94
61		9	-	24																											0	0	2	98
60		8	-	25																												0	1	99
59		7	-	26																												0	0	100
58		6	-	27																													0	100
57		5	-	28																													0	100
56		4	-	29																													0	100
52	-55																																	100

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	9	12	15	18	19	16