Miami Marlins Playoff Chances 2015-3 50/50

Lost to Nationals 4-7, playoff odds down 0.002 to 0.002%

52-79 .397

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Marlins 7 Phillies 0	+3.0		+0.3

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Marlins 2 Phillies 6	-3.0		-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Marlins finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

83		31	-	0	20.7	%		0	20		0	17	52	10	0	0						176,867
82		30	-	1	10.3				10			10	62	17								29
81		29	-	2	2.3				2			1	41	41	13	1						427
80		28	-	3	0.5				1			1	23	45	27	4						4,588
79		27	-	4	0.1				0			0	9	35	42	13	0					31,673
78		26	-	5	0.0				0			0	3	20	48	29	0					169,982
77		25	-	6	0.0				0			0	1	8	41	49	0	0				734,835
76		24	-	7	0.0				0				0	3	28	67	2	0	0			2,622,231
75		23	-	8	Out								0	1	15	77	7	0	0			7,857,262
74		22	-	9	Out								0	0	6	76	16	1	0	0		20,066,078
73		21	-	10	Out								0	0	2	63	30	4	0	0	0	44,102,363
72		20	-	11	Out									0	0	42	42	13	2	0	0	84,172,827
71		19	-	12	Out									0	0	21	43	28	7	1	0	140,235,250
70		18	-	13	Out										0	8	30	38	20	4	0	204,888,664
69		17	-	14	Out										0	2	13	34	35	15	2	263,374,071
68		16	-	15	Out										0	0	4	19	38	31	9	298,472,974
67		15	-	16	Out											0	1	7	27	43	23	298,477,255
66		14	-	17	Out											0	0	2	13	41	45	263,387,425
65		13	-	18	Out											0	0	0	4	29	66	204,889,751
64		12	-	19	Out												0	0	1	16	83	140,235,704
63		11	-	20	Out												0	0	0	7	92	84,168,843
62		10	-	21	Out													0	0	3	97	44,113,070
61		9	-	22	Out														0	1	99	20,062,919
60		8	-	23	Out														0	0	100	7,862,568
59		7	-	24	Out														0	0	100	2,625,087
58		6	-	25	Out															0	100	735,573
57		5	-	26	Out															0	100	170,146
56		4	-	27	Out															0	100	31,481
55		3	-	28	Out															0	100	4,627
52	-54				Out																100	177,330	*

Total:					0.0	%		0	0		0	0	0	0	0	6	10	14	18	22	29	2,133,851,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Marlins 7 Phillies 0	-0.7

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Marlins 2 Phillies 6	+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

83		31	-	0							0	0	3	17	10	33	24	10	2	0	0
82		30	-	1										10	7	28	24	14	17
81		29	-	2										2		2	18	30	25	18	4	1
80		28	-	3										1		0	3	11	22	28	22	10	3	1	0
79		27	-	4										0		0	0	1	7	17	27	25	15	6	1	0	0
78		26	-	5										0			0	0	1	3	11	22	28	21	10	3	0	0
77		25	-	6										0				0	0	0	1	7	18	29	27	14	4	0	0	0
76		24	-	7										0					0	0	0	1	4	14	29	31	16	4	0	0
75		23	-	8																0	0	0	0	3	13	31	34	16	3	0	0	0
74		22	-	9																	0	0	0	0	3	15	36	33	11	1	0	0	0
73		21	-	10																			0	0	0	4	20	41	27	7	1	0	0	0
72		20	-	11																				0	0	1	6	29	38	21	5	1	0	0
71		19	-	12																				0	0	0	1	12	31	34	17	4	0	0
70		18	-	13																					0	0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0
69		17	-	14																						0	0	0	4	17	34	30	12	2
68		16	-	15																							0	0	1	5	21	37	28	8
67		15	-	16																							0	0	0	1	8	28	41	23
66		14	-	17																								0	0	0	2	14	40	44
65		13	-	18																									0	0	0	5	30	65
64		12	-	19																										0	0	1	17	81
63		11	-	20																										0	0	0	8	91
62		10	-	21																											0	0	4	96
61		9	-	22																												0	1	99
60		8	-	23																												0	0	100
59		7	-	24																												0	0	100
58		6	-	25																													0	100
57		5	-	26																													0	100
56		4	-	27																													0	100
55		3	-	28																													0	100
52	-54																																	100

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	9	13	17	21	29