Detroit Tigers Playoff Chances 2015-3 50/50

Lost to Blue Jays 2-9, playoff odds down 0.3 to 0.4%

60-69 .465

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Royals 1 Tigers 2	+3.4		+0.3

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Royals 4 Tigers 6	+3.6		+0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Tigers finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

92		32	-	0	In		19	15	1	64	1											176,866
91		31	-	1	In		11			84	5											19
90		30	-	2	In		1	6	1	82	9											248
89		29	-	3	99.8	%	0	3	1	72	24	0										2,495
88		28	-	4	99.2		0	1	1	57	40	1										18,095
87		27	-	5	95.6		0	0	0	39	56	4	0									100,802
86		26	-	6	85.7		0	0	0	21	64	14	1	0								452,789
85		25	-	7	65.8			0	0	9	57	30	4	0	0							1,678,722
84		24	-	8	39.3			0	0	3	37	45	14	1	0	0						5,244,131
83		23	-	9	16.3				0	0	16	43	32	8	1	0	0					13,965,227
82		22	-	10	4.1				0	0	4	25	41	24	6	1	0	0				32,098,773
81		21	-	11	0.5				0	0	1	8	29	37	21	5	0	0	0	0		64,135,053
80		20	-	12	0.0					0	0	1	10	29	36	19	5	0	0	0		112,200,461
79		19	-	13	0.0						0	0	2	10	29	35	19	4	0	0	0	172,544,200
78		18	-	14	0.0						0	0	0	2	10	29	35	19	4	0	0	234,125,156
77		17	-	15	Out							0	0	0	2	11	30	35	18	3	0	280,944,006
76		16	-	16	Out								0	0	0	2	13	33	36	14	1	298,482,445
75		15	-	17	Out									0	0	0	3	18	41	33	5	280,935,340
74		14	-	18	Out										0	0	0	6	30	50	14	234,147,602
73		13	-	19	Out											0	0	1	15	54	30	172,554,267
72		12	-	20	Out											0	0	0	6	46	48	112,177,466
71		11	-	21	Out												0	0	2	33	65	64,137,085
70		10	-	22	Out												0	0	0	21	79	32,089,130
69		9	-	23	Out													0	0	12	88	13,965,920
68		8	-	24	Out													0	0	6	94	5,240,157
67		7	-	25	Out														0	3	97	1,682,630
66		6	-	26	Out														0	1	99	454,285
65		5	-	27	Out															0	100	101,010
64		4	-	28	Out															0	100	17,899
63		3	-	29	Out															0	100	2,482
61	-62				Out																100	273	*
60		0	-	32	Out															0	100	176,866

Total:					0.4	%	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	12	15	18	20	11	2,133,851,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Royals 1 Tigers 2	-0.6

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Royals 4 Tigers 6	-0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

92	32	-	0	0	2	20	41	28	8	1	0	0	0
91	31	-	1		5	5	37	32	21
90	30	-	2				10	32	33	16	8	1
89	29	-	3				2	13	27	33	17	6	1	0
88	28	-	4				0	3	14	28	31	18	4	1	0
87	27	-	5				0	0	4	14	30	33	15	4	0	0	0
86	26	-	6				0	0	0	3	15	35	32	11	3	0	0
85	25	-	7					0	0	0	4	20	41	18	12	3	0	0	0
84	24	-	8					0	0	0	0	6	33	16	26	14	3	0	0	0	0
83	23	-	9							0	0	1	15	8	27	29	15	4	1	0	0	0
82	22	-	10								0	0	4	2	12	28	30	17	6	1	0	0	0
81	21	-	11								0	0	1	0	2	11	25	30	21	8	2	0	0	0	0
80	20	-	12									0	0	0	0	2	8	21	30	25	12	3	0	0	0	0
79	19	-	13										0	0	0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0	0	0
78	18	-	14										0		0	0	0	0	3	11	24	30	21	8	2	0	0	0	0
77	17	-	15													0	0	0	0	2	8	21	31	25	11	2	0	0	0
76	16	-	16														0	0	0	0	1	6	19	32	29	12	2	0	0	0
75	15	-	17																0	0	0	1	5	19	35	30	9	1	0	0	0
74	14	-	18																	0	0	0	1	5	22	39	26	7	1	0	0	0
73	13	-	19																		0	0	0	1	7	28	38	20	5	0	0	0
72	12	-	20																			0	0	0	1	12	32	35	17	4	0	0	0
71	11	-	21																				0	0	0	3	15	33	32	14	3	0	0
70	10	-	22																					0	0	0	4	18	34	30	12	2	0
69	9	-	23																						0	0	1	5	20	35	28	10	1
68	8	-	24																							0	0	1	7	24	38	26	5
67	7	-	25																							0	0	0	1	9	30	42	17
66	6	-	26																									0	0	2	16	44	37
65	5	-	27																										0	0	6	34	60
64	4	-	28																											0	2	21	78
63	3	-	29																												0	10	90
62	2	-	30																													4	96
61	1	-	31																														100
60	0	-	32																												0	0	100

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	10	12	13	13	10	6	3	1	1	0	0