Chicago Bears Playoff Chances 2010

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.05 to 48.6%

9-4-0 .692

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lions 7 Packers 3	+16.9		+0.6
Bears 7 Patriots 36	-11.1		-0.6
Saints 31 Rams 13			-0.0
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30			-0.0
Redskins 16 Bucs 17			-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Vikings vs Giants			+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vikings vs Bears	-15.5-15.2+12.4+12.8+12.8		-0.9-0.9+0.4+0.7+0.7
Patriots vs Packers	+12.0+11.6+10.6-16.0-15.7		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.6-0.6
Bucs vs Lions			-0.1-0.0-0.2+0.1+0.1
Seahawks vs Falcons			+0.0-0.0*-0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Bears finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

12		3	-	0	-	0	In		2	90	8														88,735
11	.5	2	-	0	-	1	In		0	70	30														1,292
11		2	-	1	-	0	80.8	%	0	43	38		2	15	3	0									397,446
		1	-	0	-	2	In			44	56														9
10	.5	1	-	1	-	1	83.9			11	73		1	12	3	0									3,312
10		1	-	2	-	0	27.5			2	25		0	27	39	6									461,364
		0	-	1	-	2	37.5				38			25	25	13									8
9	.5	0	-	2	-	1	30.0			0	30			10	34	26									1,896
9		0	-	3	-	0	0.0				0			3	46	49	1								159,326

Total:							48.6	%	0	24	25		1	17	24	10	0								1,113,388

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bears 7 Patriots 36	+1.3
Lions 7 Packers 3	-1.0
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	-0.1
Saints 31 Rams 13	+0.0
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30	+0.0
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Vikings vs Giants	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vikings vs Bears	+1.7+1.6-0.8-1.4-1.4
Patriots vs Packers	-0.8-0.7-0.7+1.0+1.0
Rams vs Chiefs	-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.1+0.1
Chargers vs 49ers	+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Bucs vs Lions	+0.1+0.0*+0.2-0.1-0.1
Steelers vs Jets	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Seahawks vs Falcons	-0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0+0.0
Dolphins vs Bills	-0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

12		3	-	0	-	0	0	2	11	79	8
11	.5	2	-	0	-	1		0	7	63	30
11		2	-	1	-	0		0	0	43	30	7			1	7	10	2	0
		1	-	0	-	2				44	56
10	.5	1	-	1	-	1				11	54	19			0	2	7	6	1	0
10		1	-	2	-	0				2	4	22			0	1	13	28	22	8	1	0
		0	-	1	-	2						38						25	13	25
9	.5	0	-	2	-	1				0	2	27					0	7	26	27	9	1	0
9		0	-	3	-	0						0					0	1	14	37	35	11	2	0	0

Total:							0	0	1	23	13	12			0	3	9	12	11	9	5	2	0	0	0