New England Patriots Playoff Chances 2010

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.01 to 99.8%

11-2-0 .846

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	+5.7		+0.2
Bears 7 Patriots 36	+5.2		+0.3
Steelers 23 Bengals 7			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Steelers vs Jets	+0.2+0.2*-0.2-0.4-0.4		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1
Patriots vs Packers	+0.2In-0.3-0.2-0.2		+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Patriots finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

13	-14						In		100																907,231	*
12	.5	1	-	1	-	1	In		57	43															2,669
12		1	-	2	-	0	100.0	%	57	43			0												182,897
		0	-	1	-	2	In		80	20															5
11	.5	0	-	2	-	1	90.0		8	81			8	2											459
11		0	-	3	-	0	89.7		7	81	2	0	9	2											20,127

Total:							99.8	%	91	9	0	0	0	0											1,113,388

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bears 7 Patriots 36	-0.8
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	-0.4
Steelers 23 Bengals 7	+0.0
Panthers 10 Falcons 31	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Patriots vs Packers	-0.3-0.3+0.3+0.4+0.4
Seahawks vs Falcons	-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.1
Steelers vs Jets	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		3	-	0	-	0	100	0
13	.5	2	-	0	-	1	64	36
13		2	-	1	-	0	61	39
		1	-	0	-	2	80	20
12	.5	1	-	1	-	1	6	51	43
12		1	-	2	-	0	6	51	43	0					0	0
		0	-	1	-	2		80	20
11	.5	0	-	2	-	1		8	53	29					2	7	1
11		0	-	3	-	0		7	20	61	1	0	0		3	6	1	0

Total:							65	26	8	1	0	0	0		0	0	0	0