Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 2010

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.9 to 54.1%

8-5-0 .615

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Jaguars 38 Raiders 31	+11.0		+1.1
Titans 28 Colts 30	-6.3		-0.2
Texans 28 Ravens 34 (ot)	*+0.8		+0.1
Jets 6 Dolphins 10			-0.2
Chargers 31 Chiefs 0			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Colts vs Jaguars	-22.1-22.4+40.1InIn		-1.1-1.1+2.0+2.2+2.2
Dolphins vs Bills			-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.1
Chargers vs 49ers			-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Rams vs Chiefs			+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1
Titans vs Texans			+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0
Steelers vs Jets			-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Bengals vs Browns			-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Jaguars finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

11		3	-	0	-	0	In			0	81	19													97,216
10	.5	2	-	0	-	1	In			0	79	20													1,369
10		2	-	1	-	0	86.3	%			18	68	0	1	8	4	0								390,112
		1	-	0	-	2	In				17	83													6
9	.5	1	-	1	-	1	87.4				18	69	0	1	7	4	0								3,322
9		1	-	2	-	0	35.0				3	32		0	6	32	26	1							466,180
		0	-	1	-	2	81.8					82				18									11
8	.5	0	-	2	-	1	35.2				0	35			7	29	27	2							1,846
8		0	-	3	-	0	0.0					0			0	10	63	24	3						153,326

Total:							54.1	%		0	15	39	0	0	6	16	20	4	0						1,113,388

Games Above .500 (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Jaguars 38 Raiders 31	-1.9
Titans 28 Colts 30	+0.5
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	+0.2
Texans 28 Ravens 34 (ot)	-0.1
Saints 31 Rams 13	-0.0
49ers 40 Seahawks 21	-0.0
Lions 7 Packers 3	-0.0
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30	+0.0
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colts vs Jaguars	+2.2+2.2-4.0-4.5-4.5
Dolphins vs Bills	+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1
Chargers vs 49ers	+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Vikings vs Bears	-0.0-0.0-0.2+0.0+0.0
Giants vs Eagles	+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.1-0.0
Bucs vs Lions	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Rams vs Chiefs	-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Packers	-0.0-0.0*-0.1+0.1+0.0
Steelers vs Jets	+0.0+0.0*-0.2-0.1-0.0
Titans vs Texans	-0.0+0.0*-0.2+0.0+0.0
Bengals vs Browns	+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

11		3	-	0	-	0			0	0	41	40	19
10	.5	2	-	0	-	1				0	39	41	20
10		2	-	1	-	0					1	17	68			0	0	1	3	5	4	1	0
		1	-	0	-	2						17	83
9	.5	1	-	1	-	1					0	18	69					1	3	5	3	1	0
9		1	-	2	-	0						3	28	4			0	0	0	2	11	30	21	1	0
		0	-	1	-	2							64	18								18
8	.5	0	-	2	-	1						0	28	7						1	11	28	22	2
8		0	-	3	-	0							0	0						0	1	11	49	30	8	1	0	0

Total:									0	0	4	11	37	2		0	0	0	1	3	6	14	16	5	1	0	0	0