Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances 2010

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.05 to 51.4%

8-5-0 .615

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lions 7 Packers 3	-16.9		-1.0
Bears 7 Patriots 36	+11.1		+0.4
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30			-0.1
Saints 31 Rams 13			-0.0
Redskins 16 Bucs 17			-0.0
Panthers 10 Falcons 31			-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Vikings vs Giants			+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vikings vs Bears	+15.5+15.2-12.4-12.8-12.8		+0.6+0.6-0.5-0.5-0.5
Patriots vs Packers	-12.0-11.6-10.6+16.0+15.7		-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.9+0.9
Giants vs Eagles			+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1
Bucs vs Lions			-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1
Seahawks vs Falcons			-0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Packers finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

11		3	-	0	-	0	100.0	%	0	78	22		0	0	0										245,445
10	.5	2	-	0	-	1	57.2			10	47		1	34	7	1									2,493
10		2	-	1	-	0	57.4			9	49		1	29	11	1									517,002
		1	-	0	-	2	85.7			14	71			14											7
9	.5	1	-	1	-	1	8.6			0	9			12	44	35									3,272
9		1	-	2	-	0	9.5				10	0		7	43	40									294,133
		0	-	1	-	2	Out								50	50									10
8	.5	0	-	2	-	1	Out								10	89	1								902
8		0	-	3	-	0	Out								7	88	5	0	0						50,124

Total:							51.4	%	0	21	30	0	1	16	17	15	0	0	0						1,113,388

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 12/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lions 7 Packers 3	+2.1
Bears 7 Patriots 36	-0.6
Cowboys 27 Eagles 30	+0.1
Texans 28 Ravens 34 (ot)	+0.1
Jets 6 Dolphins 10	-0.1
Redskins 16 Bucs 17	+0.0
Saints 31 Rams 13	+0.0
Steelers 23 Bengals 7	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Vikings vs Giants	-0.1-0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Week of 12/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Patriots vs Packers	+1.5+1.5+1.0-2.0-1.9
Vikings vs Bears	-1.1-1.0+0.9+0.9+0.9
Giants vs Eagles	-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.1
Bucs vs Lions	+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Steelers vs Jets	-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Dolphins vs Bills	+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Rams vs Chiefs	-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Seahawks vs Falcons	+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Raiders vs Broncos	+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.0
Chargers vs 49ers	+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1
Cowboys vs Redskins	+0.0*+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0
Titans vs Texans	-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

11		3	-	0	-	0	0	0	10	68	22	0			0	0	0	0
10	.5	2	-	0	-	1			0	10	36	11			0	6	22	12	2	0
10		2	-	1	-	0			0	9	36	13			0	6	18	14	4	1	0
		1	-	0	-	2				14	43	29						14
9	.5	1	-	1	-	1				0	1	8				0	1	11	32	34	11	1
9		1	-	2	-	0					1	9	0	0		0	0	4	15	29	29	12	1	0
		0	-	1	-	2												10	30	30	20		10
8	.5	0	-	2	-	1													0	7	28	39	24	2
8		0	-	3	-	0													0	0	4	24	49	16	6	1	0	0

Total:							0	0	2	19	22	8	0	0	0	3	9	8	6	8	8	4	3	1	0	0	0	0