North Pole Polar Bears Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Silver Blades 350-659, playoff odds up 1.1 to 81.1%

9-6-1 .594

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 1/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gowanda Shenanigans 502 Grand Island Landsharks 408	+1.6		+0.1
North Pole Polar Bears 350 Silver Blades 659	-0.8		-0.0
Off Constantly 469 Swan Divers 558	+0.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 1/26	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Boston Red Coats vs North Pole Polar Bears	-2.2-0.6+0.7		-0.1-0.0+0.0
Grand Island Landsharks vs Swan Divers	-0.6*+0.4+0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the North Pole Polar Bears finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	Count

15	.5	6	-	0	-	0	In		74	26	0				287,016
15		5	-	0	-	1	In		29	59	12				22,440
14	.5	5	-	1	-	0	In		16	61	23	0			1,255,845
		4	-	0	-	2	In		10	59	30	0			724
14		4	-	1	-	1	In		3	29	58	10			80,540
		3	-	0	-	3	In			38	63				16
13	.5	4	-	2	-	0	99.7	%	1	19	60	20	0		2,191,295
		3	-	1	-	2	99.4		1	14	60	25	1		2,017
13		3	-	2	-	1	87.0		0	5	35	47	13	0	110,229
		2	-	1	-	3	81.8			5	32	45	18		22
12	.5	3	-	3	-	0	77.7		0	2	24	52	22	0	1,936,577
		2	-	2	-	2	73.0			1	19	53	27	0	1,974
12		2	-	3	-	1	46.2			0	7	39	50	4	71,306
		1	-	2	-	3	50.0				10	40	50		10
11	.5	2	-	4	-	0	33.4				3	30	59	7	911,980
		1	-	3	-	2	26.7				2	25	63	10	895
11		1	-	4	-	1	10.1				0	10	67	23	22,061
		0	-	3	-	3	Out						100		3
10	.5	1	-	5	-	0	5.3					5	63	31	216,101
		0	-	4	-	2	1.7					2	61	38	119
10		0	-	5	-	1	Out						40	60	2,522
9	.5	0	-	6	-	0	Out						28	72	21,804

Total:							81.1	%	6	19	31	25	17	2	7,135,496

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 1/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
North Pole Polar Bears 350 Silver Blades 659	+0.2
Gowanda Shenanigans 502 Grand Island Landsharks 408	-0.1
Off Constantly 469 Swan Divers 558	-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 1/26	100.0*	Lottery seed
Boston Red Coats vs North Pole Polar Bears	+0.7+0.1-0.2
Top Shelf Cheap Shots vs Got Malk?	+0.1-0.0-0.2
Fighting Mongooses vs Silver Blades	+0.1+0.1-0.0
Off Constantly vs Redwall Avengers	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Grand Island Landsharks vs Swan Divers	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Gowanda Shenanigans vs NorCal Wildfires	-0.1-0.1+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

15	.5	6	-	0	-	0	0	89	10	0
15		5	-	0	-	1	0	58	36	6
14	.5	5	-	1	-	0	0	39	48	13	0
		4	-	0	-	2		40	50	11
14		4	-	1	-	1		14	46	39	1
		3	-	0	-	3		25	56	19
13	.5	4	-	2	-	0		4	35	53	7	0
		3	-	1	-	2		5	33	57	5	0
13		3	-	2	-	1		1	16	60	23	1	0
		2	-	1	-	3			32	45	23
12	.5	3	-	3	-	0		0	3	35	51	10	0	0
		2	-	2	-	2			4	40	48	7	0
12		2	-	3	-	1		0	1	20	54	23	3	0
		1	-	2	-	3				10	40	40	10
11	.5	2	-	4	-	0			0	2	23	47	25	3
		1	-	3	-	2				2	26	48	21	3
11		1	-	4	-	1			0	1	14	43	35	8
		0	-	3	-	3					33	33	33
10	.5	1	-	5	-	0				0	1	13	45	42	0
		0	-	4	-	2					1	13	50	36
10		0	-	5	-	1					0	8	38	54	0
9	.5	0	-	6	-	0						0	12	85	3	0

Total:							0	12	21	30	20	10	5	2	0	0