Fighting Mongooses Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Beat Top Shelf Cheap Shots 478-474, playoff odds up 1.1 to 99.5%

11-5-0 .688

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 1/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Fighting Mongooses 478 Top Shelf Cheap Shots 474	+0.3
Off Constantly 469 Swan Divers 558	+0.3
Gowanda Shenanigans 502 Grand Island Landsharks 408	+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 1/26	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Fighting Mongooses vs Silver Blades	+0.2*+0.1-0.1
Grand Island Landsharks vs Swan Divers	-0.1-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Fighting Mongooses finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	Count

16.5	-17						In		100						251,571	*
16		5	-	1	-	0	In		99	1					1,201,164
		4	-	0	-	2	In		99	1					618
15	.5	4	-	1	-	1	In		95	5					78,998
		3	-	0	-	3	In		100						9
15		4	-	2	-	0	In		92	8	0				2,224,709
		3	-	1	-	2	In		89	11	0				2,011
14	.5	3	-	2	-	1	In		76	23	1				112,406
		2	-	1	-	3	In		61	35	4				23
14		3	-	3	-	0	In		64	32	4	0			1,993,781
		2	-	2	-	2	In		56	40	4	0			2,070
13	.5	2	-	3	-	1	100.0	%	31	54	13	2	0		73,059
		1	-	2	-	3	In		44	44	11				18
13		2	-	4	-	0	99.8		11	52	33	5	0		932,133
		1	-	3	-	2	99.8		8	50	36	5	0		873
12	.5	1	-	4	-	1	97.7		0	22	55	21	2	0	22,537
		0	-	3	-	3	In				100				2
12		1	-	5	-	0	91.9			3	38	50	8	0	215,863
		0	-	4	-	2	84.8			2	31	51	15		125
11	.5	0	-	5	-	1	60.6			0	7	53	39	1	2,548
11		0	-	6	-	0	32.4				1	31	65	3	20,978

Total:							99.5	%	71	20	7	2	0	0	7,135,496

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 1/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Fighting Mongooses 478 Top Shelf Cheap Shots 474	-0.5
Gowanda Shenanigans 502 Grand Island Landsharks 408	-0.1
North Pole Polar Bears 350 Silver Blades 659	-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 1/26	100.0*	Lottery seed
Fighting Mongooses vs Silver Blades	-0.3-0.1+0.1
Top Shelf Cheap Shots vs Got Malk?	+0.0-0.0-0.1
Boston Red Coats vs North Pole Polar Bears	-0.1-0.1+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

17		6	-	0	-	0	2	98
16	.5	5	-	0	-	1	0	100
16		5	-	1	-	0	0	99	1
		4	-	0	-	2		98	2
15	.5	4	-	1	-	1	0	95	5	0
		3	-	0	-	3		100
15		4	-	2	-	0	0	85	14	0
		3	-	1	-	2		87	13	0
14	.5	3	-	2	-	1	0	64	33	3	0
		2	-	1	-	3		61	39
14		3	-	3	-	0		43	45	12	0
		2	-	2	-	2		45	44	11	0
13	.5	2	-	3	-	1		17	47	33	3	0
		1	-	2	-	3		22	39	39
13		2	-	4	-	0		6	32	50	12	0	0
		1	-	3	-	2		6	33	49	11
12	.5	1	-	4	-	1		0	6	37	46	10	0
		0	-	3	-	3					100
12		1	-	5	-	0		0	2	22	54	21	2	0
		0	-	4	-	2				17	54	25	4
11	.5	0	-	5	-	1				1	19	47	28	5
11		0	-	6	-	0			0	0	10	41	38	10

Total:							0	62	23	11	3	1	0	0