Got Malk? Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Redwall Avengers 261-428, playoff odds up 0.05 to 2.5%

4-12-0 .250

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 1/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Got Malk? 261 Redwall Avengers 428	-0.1
NorCal Wildfires 391 Boston Red Coats 337	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 1/26	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Top Shelf Cheap Shots vs Got Malk?	-0.0*+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Got Malk? finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	Count

10		6	-	0	-	0	In		2	43	51	3			3,190
9	.5	5	-	0	-	1	In		0	31	59	9			334
9		5	-	1	-	0	85.2	%	0	8	28	48	15	0	30,941
		4	-	0	-	2	95.8			8	38	50	4		24
8	.5	4	-	1	-	1	74.5		0	5	22	47	24	1	4,742
8		4	-	2	-	0	36.3			0	9	28	40	23	233,781
		3	-	1	-	2	48.5				11	38	38	13	270
7	.5	3	-	2	-	1	28.3				4	24	41	30	27,958
		2	-	1	-	3	36.4					36	27	36	11
7		3	-	3	-	0	5.1				0	5	34	61	928,058
		2	-	2	-	2	5.5				0	5	42	53	1,163
6	.5	2	-	3	-	1	2.2					2	28	70	83,064
		1	-	2	-	3	Out						17	83	29
6		2	-	4	-	0	0.0					0	7	93	2,054,898
		1	-	3	-	2	Out						9	91	2,515
5	.5	1	-	4	-	1	Out						3	97	121,904
		0	-	3	-	3	Out							100	25
4	-5						Out							100	3,642,589	*

Total:							2.5	%	0	0	0	2	8	89	7,135,496

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 1/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Got Malk? 261 Redwall Avengers 428	+0.5
Gowanda Shenanigans 502 Grand Island Landsharks 408	+0.2
NorCal Wildfires 391 Boston Red Coats 337	-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 1/26	100.0*	Lottery seed
Top Shelf Cheap Shots vs Got Malk?	+0.1-0.2-0.4
Boston Red Coats vs North Pole Polar Bears	+0.2+0.1-0.1
Gowanda Shenanigans vs NorCal Wildfires	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Off Constantly vs Redwall Avengers	-0.0-0.0+0.1

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

10		6	-	0	-	0						1	9	46	43	1
9	.5	5	-	0	-	1							6	34	58	1
9		5	-	1	-	0							0	5	77	17	0
		4	-	0	-	2								4	83	13
8	.5	4	-	1	-	1							0	4	75	20	1
8		4	-	2	-	0								0	40	50	10	0
		3	-	1	-	2									38	50	12	0
7	.5	3	-	2	-	1									34	53	13	0
		2	-	1	-	3									36	36	27
7		3	-	3	-	0									6	43	46	4
		2	-	2	-	2									7	42	47	4
6	.5	2	-	3	-	1									3	36	53	8
		1	-	2	-	3										45	48	7
6		2	-	4	-	0									0	8	59	33
		1	-	3	-	2									0	7	60	33
5	.5	1	-	4	-	1										2	50	48
		0	-	3	-	3											56	44
5		1	-	5	-	0										0	25	74
		0	-	4	-	2										0	26	74
4	.5	0	-	5	-	1											11	89
4		0	-	6	-	0											5	95

Total:												0	0	0	3	10	34	53