SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

National Football Conference Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Green Bay +23.5, Tampa Bay -24.3
Add your own league!
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsChance will finish regular season at seed
GW-L-TPCTGD%Change12345678910111213141516Avg.ChangeRPI
Dallas12-2-0.857108In9461.2+0.341Dallas Cowboys
Seattle9-4-1.67963In5425212.7+0.128Seattle Seahawks
NY Giants10-4-0.7142298.7%+13.86848104.9+0.304New York Giants
Atlanta9-5-0.64311188.6+12.42129182181014.0+0.8211Atlanta Falcons
Detroit9-5-0.6431677.7-12.72125160151574.4-1.1114Detroit Lions
Green Bay8-6-0.5712447.0+23.52122310181318406.2+1.4912Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay8-6-0.571-945.1-24.32821113192011406.4-1.0413Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington17-5-1.5771340.3+1.7634212494107.1+0.047Washington Redskins
Minnesota7-7-0.50052.4-12.921119332010419.1-0.7918Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans6-8-0.429140.2-0.7031118312212310.1+1.1021New Orleans Saints
Carolina15-8-0.385-260.0-0.50146142730144111.3+0.2126Carolina Panthers
Arizona5-8-1.39315Out-0.30518262517811.5-0.7527Arizona Cardinals
Philadelphia5-9-0.35717Out-0.01411184121312.7-0.6423Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles4-10-0.286-131Out12920402813.8+0.3925Los Angeles Rams
Chicago3-11-0.214-72Out15276814.6-0.4230Chicago Bears
San Francisco1-13-0.071-170Out10016.0-0.0832San Francisco 49ers

We use the real NFL tiebreakers, except for net touchdowns (the last).

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 12/15
Dallas 26 Tampa Bay 20
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Dallas+0.4
NY Giants+1.9
-0.2
Atlanta+3.6
+0.2
Detroit+1.4
Green Bay+3.4
Tampa Bay-18.2
-0.9
Washington+4.1
Minnesota+2.4
New Orleans+0.8
Carolina+0.4
NY Giants 17 Detroit 6
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Dallas-0.2
Seattle+0.2
NY Giants+12.5
+0.7
Atlanta-1.4
Detroit-9.1
-0.8
Green Bay+3.7
+0.2
Tampa Bay-2.5
Washington-1.1
Minnesota-2.1
Chicago 27 Green Bay 30
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
NY Giants-1.7
Atlanta-1.2
Detroit-3.1
-0.2
Green Bay+14.0
+1.0
Tampa Bay-3.8
Washington-3.1
Minnesota-0.7
Arizona-0.2
Los Angeles+0.2
Chicago-0.4
Atlanta 41 San Francisco 13
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
NY Giants-1.9
Atlanta+13.6
+0.8
Detroit-0.9
Green Bay-1.7
Tampa Bay-1.2
-0.2
Washington-4.0
Minnesota-2.5
New Orleans-0.8
Carolina-0.4
PhiladelphiaOut
Minnesota 6 Indianapolis 34
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
NY Giants+2.1
Atlanta+1.4
Detroit+0.8
Green Bay+1.3
Tampa Bay+1.7
Washington+3.7
+0.2
Minnesota-11.3
-0.8
Arizona+0.2
Seattle 24 Los Angeles 3
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
SeattleIn
+0.5
Arizona-3.1
Philadelphia+0.2
Los Angeles-0.7
Chicago+0.2
Arizona 41 New Orleans 48
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Atlanta-0.4
Washington+0.2
New Orleans+0.9
+1.0
Carolina-0.4
ArizonaOut
-1.0
Baltimore 27 Philadelphia 26
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
New Orleans+0.2
Arizona+0.2
PhiladelphiaOut
-0.8
Washington vs CarolinaIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Atlanta83.793.593.6
4.13.93.9
Detroit73.781.981.7
4.44.34.3
Green Bay42.447.951.6
6.36.26.1
Tampa Bay40.249.949.9
6.56.16.3
Washington61.328.919.3
6.57.27.8
New OrleansOut0.40.4
10.010.110.1
CarolinaOutOut0.0
12.011.310.6
Week of 12/22
New Orleans vs Tampa BayIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Atlanta93.093.084.2
3.53.54.5
Detroit84.479.771.0
4.24.34.5
Green Bay50.945.343.1
6.16.36.3
Tampa Bay18.844.371.4
7.66.55.1
Washington47.633.033.0
7.07.37.3
Minnesota4.94.7Out
9.28.78.9
New Orleans0.4OutOut
9.310.410.9
Carolina0.0OutOut
Chicago vs WashingtonHomeTieAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Atlanta93.593.583.7
3.93.94.1
Detroit81.881.973.6
4.34.34.4
Green Bay51.947.442.2
6.16.36.3
Tampa Bay49.750.240.5
6.26.26.5
Washington19.328.961.3
7.87.26.5
New Orleans0.40.4Out
Carolina*0.00.2Out
11.311.211.3
Green Bay vs MinnesotaHomeTieAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Detroit74.980.580.5
4.74.04.0
Green Bay65.136.028.9
5.16.67.3
Tampa Bay38.848.851.4
6.56.36.3
Washington35.347.645.3
7.26.97.1
MinnesotaOut0.84.9
9.98.88.2
New OrleansOutOut0.4
9.910.310.2
CarolinaOutOut0.0
11.311.411.4
Dallas vs DetroitHomeTieAway
Mon100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Detroit61.092.894.4
5.23.73.5
Green Bay57.436.336.6
5.86.76.6
Washington44.136.536.5
Carolina vs AtlantaHomeTieAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Atlanta78.197.199.1
4.83.73.2
Tampa Bay55.734.734.5
5.96.86.8
Washington42.438.338.3
7.27.27.1
Carolina0.0OutOut
10.611.312.0
Philadelphia vs NY GiantsHomeTieAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
NY Giants97.3InIn
5.25.14.5
Philadelphia12.112.613.4
Los Angeles vs San FranciscoHomeTieAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Los Angeles13.313.714.4
Seattle vs ArizonaHomeTieAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Seattle2.32.93.1
Arizona12.311.710.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:24 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)