Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Beat San Francisco 41-13, playoff odds up 12.4 to 88.6%
9-5-0   .643

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 12/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Atlanta 41 San Francisco 13 +13.6
+0.8
Dallas 26 Tampa Bay 20 +3.6
+0.2
Minnesota 6 Indianapolis 34 +1.4
+0.1
NY Giants 17 Detroit 6 -1.4
+0.0
Chicago 27 Green Bay 30 -1.2
Arizona 41 New Orleans 48 -0.4
-0.0
Seattle 24 Los Angeles 3 -0.1
San Diego 16 Oakland 19 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Washington vs Carolina-4.9+4.9+4.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 12/22100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Carolina vs Atlanta-10.5+8.4+10.5
-0.8+0.3+0.8
Chicago vs Washington+4.9+4.9-4.9
+0.1+0.1-0.1
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay+4.4+4.4-4.4
+0.5+0.5-0.5
Green Bay vs Minnesota-1.2-1.1+1.2
Dallas vs Detroit+1.2-1.1-1.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Giants+0.8-0.8-0.8
Oakland vs Indianapolis+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Arizona-0.2-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
112-0-0In6332513,206,806,128
10.51-0-1In19621921,129,309
101-1-098.3%1141235192026,405,466,057
0-0-298.39382851928,326
9.50-1-194.10966195021,128,505
90-2-057.83223337513,207,231,499
Total:88.6%21291821810152,861,769,824
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs