Stevie's Wonders Playoff Chances 2012-2013

Lost to Babs 41-47, playoff odds down 7.5 to 0.0007%

8 points 4-7

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Babs 47 Stephen 41	-7.5		-0.6
Jake 48 Josh 49	+1.0		-0.1
Chris 47 Brandon 46	+0.9		+0.1
Jason 74 Bill 40	-0.1		+0.1
Kyle 88 Yarroch 50	-0.1		+0.1
Zach 65 Darryl 56			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 11/26	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Darryl vs Yarroch	Out*Out+0.0+0.0		+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1
Brandon vs Stephen	OutOutOut+0.0		-0.7-0.7+0.9+0.9
Babs vs Jake	+0.0+0.0OutOut
Zach vs Bill			+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3
Chris vs Josh			+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Stephen finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

12	2	-	0	0.0	%						0	55	40	5				3,971,000
10	1	-	1	Out								0	26	57	14	3		8,254,872
8	0	-	2	Out										0	17	51	31	3,872,894

Total:				0.0	%						0	14	23	31	11	14	8	16,098,766

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 11/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
Babs 47 Stephen 41	+0.6
Jake 48 Josh 49	+0.1
Chris 47 Brandon 46	-0.1
Jason 74 Bill 40	-0.1
Kyle 88 Yarroch 50	-0.1
Zach 65 Darryl 56	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 11/26	100.0*	Lottery seed
Brandon vs Stephen	+0.7+0.7-0.9-0.9
Zach vs Bill	-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3
Darryl vs Yarroch	-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1
Chris vs Josh	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

12	2	-	0						0	57	37	6
10	1	-	1							0	26	57	14	3
8	0	-	2									0	17	51	31

Total:									0	14	23	31	11	14	8