Salmon Arm Silverbacks Hockey 2012-2013

Beat Vernon 3-1, playoff odds up 2.8 to 98.4%

48 points 21 18-4 2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vernon 1 Salmon Arm 3	+2.5		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Trail vs Salmon Arm	-1.6-0.1+0.6+1.1+1.3		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1
Merritt vs Vernon	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Salmon Arm finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

70	11	0		-	0	0		In			58	42	0							6,687
69	10	0		-	1	0		In			39	59	2							7,824	*
68	10	1		-	0	0		In			24	70	6							42,859	*
67	9	1		-	1	0		In			13	74	13							92,108	*
66	9	2		-	0	0		In			6	70	24							279,301	*
65	8	2		-	1	0		In			2	61	37							471,415	*
64	8	3		-	0	0		In			1	48	51							570,460
	7	2		-	2	0		In			1	47	53							250,049
	7	2		-	1	1		In			1	48	52							180,011	*
63	7	3		-	1	0		In			0	35	65							891,305
	7	3		-	0	1		In			0	36	64							239,657
	6	2		-	3	0		In			0	34	66							238,888	*
62	7	4		-	0	0		In			0	24	76							1,190,677
	6	3		-	2	0		In			0	23	77							599,966
	6	3		-	1	1		In			0	23	77							453,413	*
61	6	4		-	1	0		In			0	15	85							1,601,138
	6	4		-	0	1		In			0	15	85							433,624
	5	3		-	3	0		In			0	14	86							227,098
	5	3		-	2	1		In			0	14	86							261,039	*
60	6	5		-	0	0		100.0	%		0	9	91	0						1,711,440
	5	4		-	2	0		100.0			0	8	92	0						908,383
	5	4		-	1	1		100.0			0	8	92	0						495,885
	5	4		-	0	2		100.0				8	92	0						210,279	*
59	5	5		-	1	0		100.0				4	95	0						1,941,254
	5	5		-	0	1		100.0				5	95	0						529,564
	4	4		-	3	0		100.0				4	96	0						282,704
	4	4		-	2	1		100.0				4	96	0						328,344	*
58	5	6		-	0	0		99.9				2	98	0						1,727,211
	4	5		-	2	0		99.9				2	98	0						902,379
	4	5		-	1	1		99.9				2	98	0						494,924
	4	5		-	0	2		99.9				2	98	0						207,582	*
57	4	6		-	1	0		99.6				1	99	0	0					1,605,568
	4	6		-	0	1		99.6				1	99	0						441,376
	3	5		-	3	0		99.6				1	99	0						219,603
	3	5		-	2	1		99.6				1	99	0						256,858	*
56	4	7		-	0	0		98.9				0	99	1	0					1,225,613
	3	6		-	2	0		98.8				0	98	1	0					586,832
	3	6		-	1	1		98.8				0	99	1	0					449,738	*
55	3	7		-	1	0		96.5				0	96	3	0					891,859
	3	7		-	0	1		96.8				0	97	3	0					248,756
	2	6		-	3	0		96.3				0	96	4	0					227,164	*
54	3	8		-	0	0		92.6				0	93	7	0					596,039
	2	7		-	2	0		91.8				0	92	8	0					240,314
	2	7		-	1	1		92.2				0	92	8	0					179,821	*
53	2	8		-	1	0		83.4				0	83	16	0					471,933	*
52	2	9		-	0	0		71.7				0	72	27	1					286,593	*
51	1	9		-	1	0		53.7					54	42	5					92,982	*
50	1	10		-	0	0		37.3					37	52	11					45,771	*
49	0	10		-	1	0		19.9					20	57	23					7,891	*
48	0	11		-	0	0		9.9					10	53	37					7,006

Total:								98.4	%		0	11	87	2	0					25,859,185

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vernon 1 Salmon Arm 3	-0.2
W.Kelowna 7 Chilliwack 5	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Trail vs Salmon Arm	+0.2+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

70	11	0		-	0	0				0	57	21	21	0
69	10	0		-	1	0				0	39	20	40	2	0
68	10	1		-	0	0				0	24	15	55	5	1
67	9	1		-	1	0					13	8	66	9	4
66	9	2		-	0	0					6	4	66	13	11
65	8	2		-	1	0					2	1	60	14	23
64	8	3		-	0	0					1	0	48	11	40
	7	2		-	2	0					1	0	47	12	41
	7	2		-	1	1					1	0	47	12	40
63	7	3		-	1	0					0	0	35	8	57
	7	3		-	0	1					0	0	36	8	57
	6	2		-	3	0					0	0	34	8	58
62	7	4		-	0	0					0	0	24	4	72
	6	3		-	2	0					0	0	23	4	73
	6	3		-	1	1					0	0	23	4	73
61	6	4		-	1	0					0	0	15	2	84
	6	4		-	0	1					0		15	2	83
	5	3		-	3	0					0		14	2	84
	5	3		-	2	1					0		14	2	84
60	6	5		-	0	0					0		9	1	91					0
	5	4		-	2	0					0		8	0	92					0
	5	4		-	1	1					0		8	1	91					0
	5	4		-	0	2							8	0	92					0
59	5	5		-	1	0							4	0	95					0
	5	5		-	0	1							5	0	95					0
	4	4		-	3	0							4	0	96					0
	4	4		-	2	1							4	0	96					0
58	5	6		-	0	0							2	0	98					0
	4	5		-	2	0							2	0	98					0
	4	5		-	1	1							2	0	98					0
	4	5		-	0	2							2	0	98					0
57	4	6		-	1	0							1	0	99					0	0
	4	6		-	0	1							1	0	99					0
	3	5		-	3	0							1	0	99					0
	3	5		-	2	1							1	0	99					0
56	4	7		-	0	0							0	0	99					1	0
	3	6		-	2	0							0	0	98					1	0
	3	6		-	1	1							0	0	99					1	0
55	3	7		-	1	0							0		96					3	0
	3	7		-	0	1							0		97					3	0
	2	6		-	3	0							0		96					4	0
54	3	8		-	0	0							0		93					7	0	0
	2	7		-	2	0							0		92					8	0
	2	7		-	1	1							0		92					8	0
53	2	8		-	1	0							0		83					16	1	0
52	2	9		-	0	0							0		72					26	2	0
51	1	9		-	1	0									54					39	7	0
50	1	10		-	0	0									37					45	16	2
49	0	10		-	1	0									20					42	31	6
48	0	11		-	0	0									10					32	43	15

Total:										0	0	0	11	2	85					1	0	0