Trail Smoke Eaters Hockey 2012-2013

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.5 to 1.4%

42 points 20 25-2 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vernon 1 Salmon Arm 3	-1.2		+0.1
W.Kelowna 7 Chilliwack 5	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Trail vs Salmon Arm	+1.4+0.1-0.6-1.0-1.2		+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Merritt vs Vernon			+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

Chances based on how well the Trail finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

60	9	0		-	0	0		74.3	%			10	64	26	0					7,380
59	8	0		-	1	0		59.1				4	55	41						10,468	*
58	8	1		-	0	0		42.7				1	41	57	0					59,266	*
57	7	1		-	1	0		29.3				0	29	71	0					130,772	*
56	7	2		-	0	0		18.1				0	18	82	0					260,542
	6	1		-	2	0		16.9				0	17	83	0					142,100	*
55	6	2		-	1	0		10.1				0	10	90	0					475,558
	6	2		-	0	1		10.4				0	10	89	0					113,846
	5	1		-	3	0		9.2				0	9	90	0					88,632	*
54	6	3		-	0	0		4.9				0	5	94	1					849,367
	5	2		-	2	0		4.5				0	5	95	1					364,706
	5	2		-	1	1		4.5				0	5	95	1					230,746	*
53	5	3		-	1	0		2.1				0	2	96	2					1,302,746
	5	3		-	0	1		2.2					2	96	2					313,747
	4	2		-	3	0		1.9					2	96	2					150,946
	4	2		-	2	1		1.9					2	96	2					147,449	*
52	5	4		-	0	0		0.7					1	95	4					1,739,452
	4	3		-	2	0		0.6					1	95	4					805,598
	4	3		-	1	1		0.7					1	95	4					392,491
	4	3		-	0	2		0.6					1	95	4					134,236	*
51	4	4		-	1	0		0.2					0	92	8					2,153,155
	4	4		-	0	1		0.3					0	92	8					524,162
	3	3		-	3	0		0.2					0	92	8					256,643
	3	3		-	2	1		0.2					0	92	8					190,323
	3	3		-	1	2		0.2					0	92	8					66,059	*
50	4	5		-	0	0		0.0					0	87	13					2,300,365
	3	4		-	2	0		0.0					0	87	13					1,028,620
	3	4		-	1	1		0.0					0	87	13					506,925
	3	4		-	0	2		0.0					0	87	13					172,282	*
49	3	5		-	1	0		0.0					0	79	21					2,198,541
	3	5		-	0	1		0.0					0	79	21					542,488
	2	4		-	3	0		0.0					0	79	21					236,733
	2	4		-	2	1		0.0					0	79	21					237,018	*
48	3	6		-	0	0		Out						69	31					1,957,583
	2	5		-	2	0		Out						69	31					757,669
	2	5		-	1	1		Out						69	31					380,815
	2	5		-	0	2		Out						69	31					111,641	*
47	2	6		-	1	0		Out						57	43					1,350,862
	2	6		-	0	1		Out						57	43					338,589
	1	5		-	3	0		Out						57	43					110,278
	1	5		-	2	1		Out						57	43					111,939	*
46	2	7		-	0	0		Out						44	56					1,028,949
	1	6		-	2	0		Out						44	56					294,576
	1	6		-	1	1		Out						44	56					184,631	*
45	1	7		-	1	0		Out						33	67					450,248
	1	7		-	0	1		Out						32	68					156,034	*
44	1	8		-	0	0		Out						21	79					299,733
	0	7		-	2	0		Out						21	79					73,541	*
43	0	8		-	1	0		Out						14	86					78,075	*
42	0	9		-	0	0		Out						7	93					40,660

Total:								1.4	%			0	1	79	20					25,859,185

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Penticton 11 Coquitlam 0	-0.0
Vernon 1 Salmon Arm 3	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Trail vs Salmon Arm	-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2
Merritt vs Vernon	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Langley vs Coquitlam	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

60	9	0		-	0	0							10	1	63					26	0
59	8	0		-	1	0							4	0	55					41
58	8	1		-	0	0							1	0	41					57	0
57	7	1		-	1	0							0	0	29					71	0
56	7	2		-	0	0							0	0	18					82	0
	6	1		-	2	0							0		17					83	0
55	6	2		-	1	0							0		10					90	0	0
	6	2		-	0	1							0		10					89	0
	5	1		-	3	0							0		9					90	0
54	6	3		-	0	0							0		5					94	1	0
	5	2		-	2	0							0		5					95	1	0
	5	2		-	1	1							0		5					94	1	0
53	5	3		-	1	0							0		2					95	3	0
	5	3		-	0	1									2					95	3	0
	4	2		-	3	0									2					95	3	0
	4	2		-	2	1									2					95	3	0
52	5	4		-	0	0									1					93	6	0
	4	3		-	2	0									1					93	6	0
	4	3		-	1	1									1					93	6	0
	4	3		-	0	2									1					93	6	0
51	4	4		-	1	0									0					88	12	0
	4	4		-	0	1									0					88	12	0
	3	3		-	3	0									0					88	12	0
	3	3		-	2	1									0					88	12	0
	3	3		-	1	2									0					88	12	0
50	4	5		-	0	0									0					78	21	1
	3	4		-	2	0									0					78	21	1
	3	4		-	1	1									0					78	21	1
	3	4		-	0	2									0					78	20	1
	2	3		-	3	1									0					78	21	1
49	3	5		-	1	0									0					64	32	4	0
	3	5		-	0	1									0					64	32	4	0
	2	4		-	3	0									0					64	32	4
	2	4		-	2	1									0					64	32	4	0
48	3	6		-	0	0														49	42	9	0
	2	5		-	2	0														49	42	9	0
	2	5		-	1	1														49	42	9	0
47	2	6		-	1	0														33	49	18	0
	2	6		-	0	1														33	49	18	0
	1	5		-	3	0														32	49	18	0
	1	5		-	2	1														33	49	18	0
46	2	7		-	0	0														19	49	31	0
	1	6		-	2	0														19	49	31	0
	1	6		-	1	1														20	49	31	0
45	1	7		-	1	0														10	43	47	0
	1	7		-	0	1														10	43	47	0
44	1	8		-	0	0														4	33	63	0
	0	7		-	2	0														4	32	63	0
43	0	8		-	1	0														1	22	77	0
42	0	9		-	0	0														0	12	87	1

Total:													0	0	1					68	23	7	0