Vernon Vipers Hockey 2012-2013

Lost to Salmon Arm 1-3, playoff odds down 1.4 to 0.3%

37 points 15 22-7 0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vernon 1 Salmon Arm 3	-1.3		-0.1
W.Kelowna 7 Chilliwack 5	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Merritt vs Vernon	-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.4		-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Trail vs Salmon Arm	+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1		-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Vernon finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

61		12	0		-	0	0		92.2	%		2	35	55	8						4,107
60		11	0		-	1	0		80.5				18	63	19						298	*
59		11	1		-	0	0		65.9				9	57	34						1,936	*
58		10	1		-	1	0		48.7				3	46	51	0					6,233	*
57		10	2		-	0	0		32.9				1	32	67	0					22,518	*
56		9	2		-	1	0		19.3				0	19	79	2					54,125	*
55		9	3		-	0	0		11.1				0	11	85	4					141,212	*
54		8	3		-	1	0		4.7				0	5	85	10					277,142	*
53		8	4		-	0	0		2.1				0	2	80	17					223,384
		7	3		-	2	0		1.9				0	2	81	17					194,902
		7	3		-	1	1		1.9				0	2	81	17					143,157	*
52		7	4		-	1	0		0.6					1	70	30					522,283
		6	3		-	3	0		0.5					1	70	29					382,059	*
51		7	5		-	0	0		0.2					0	58	42					557,098
		6	4		-	2	0		0.2					0	58	42					526,194
		6	4		-	1	1		0.2					0	58	42					241,699
		5	3		-	4	0		0.1					0	58	42					160,103	*
50		6	5		-	1	0		0.0					0	42	58					1,121,294
		5	4		-	3	0		0.0					0	42	58					297,159
		6	5		-	0	1		0.0					0	42	58					258,720
		5	4		-	2	1		0.0					0	42	58					302,160	*
49		6	6		-	0	0		0.0					0	30	70					1,000,229
		5	5		-	2	0		0.0					0	30	70					948,820
		5	5		-	1	1		0.0					0	30	70					439,586
		4	4		-	4	0		0.0					0	30	70					298,598	*
48		5	6		-	1	0		Out						17	83					1,690,068
		4	5		-	3	0		Out						17	83					436,450
		5	6		-	0	1		Out						18	82					392,294
		4	5		-	2	1		Out						18	82					306,509
		4	5		-	1	2		Out						17	83					141,420	*
47		5	7		-	0	0		Out						10	90					1,290,578
		4	6		-	2	0		Out						10	90					1,166,173
		4	6		-	1	1		Out						10	90					544,521
		3	5		-	4	0		Out						10	90					347,822	*
46		4	7		-	1	0		Out						4	96					1,781,535
		3	6		-	3	0		Out						4	96					419,296
		4	7		-	0	1		Out						4	96					416,204
		3	6		-	2	1		Out						4	96					426,368	*
45		4	8		-	0	0		Out						2	98					1,188,784
		3	7		-	2	0		Out						2	98					960,474
		3	7		-	1	1		Out						2	98					452,647
		2	6		-	4	0		Out						2	98					251,676	*
44		3	8		-	1	0		Out						0	100					1,282,322
		3	8		-	0	1		Out						0	100					301,714
		2	7		-	3	0		Out						0	100					251,082
		2	7		-	2	1		Out						0	100					249,234	*
43		3	9		-	0	0		Out						0	100					759,334
		2	8		-	2	0		Out						0	100					503,867
		2	8		-	1	1		Out						0	100					343,934	*
37	-42								Out							100					1,829,863	*

Total:									0.3	%		0	0	0	20	80					25,859,185

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vernon 1 Salmon Arm 3	+0.2
Penticton 11 Coquitlam 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Merritt vs Vernon	+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2
Langley vs Coquitlam	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Trail vs Salmon Arm	+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

61	12	0		-	0	0					2		35	1	54					8
60	11	0		-	1	0							18	0	62					19
59	11	1		-	0	0							9		57					34
58	10	1		-	1	0							3	0	46					51	0
57	10	2		-	0	0							1	0	32					67	0
56	9	2		-	1	0							0		19					79	2
55	9	3		-	0	0							0		11					85	4
54	8	3		-	1	0							0		5					85	10	0
53	8	4		-	0	0							0		2					81	17	0
52	7	4		-	1	0									1					69	30	0
	6	3		-	3	0									1					70	30	0
51	7	5		-	0	0									0					57	42	1	0
	6	4		-	2	0									0					57	42	1
50	6	5		-	1	0									0					41	56	3
	5	4		-	3	0									0					41	56	3
	6	5		-	0	1									0					41	56	3
	5	4		-	2	1									0					41	56	3
49	6	6		-	0	0									0					28	65	7	0
	5	5		-	2	0									0					28	65	7	0
	5	5		-	1	1									0					28	65	7
	4	4		-	4	0									0					28	65	7
48	5	6		-	1	0														15	69	16	0
	4	5		-	3	0														15	69	16	0
	5	6		-	0	1														15	69	16	0
	4	5		-	2	1														15	69	16	0
47	5	7		-	0	0														8	65	26	0
	4	6		-	2	0														8	65	27	0
	4	6		-	1	1														8	65	27	0
	3	5		-	4	0														8	65	27	0
46	4	7		-	1	0														3	55	42	0
	3	6		-	3	0														3	55	42	0
	4	7		-	0	1														3	55	42	0
	3	6		-	2	1														3	55	42	0
45	4	8		-	0	0														1	44	55	0
	3	7		-	2	0														1	43	55	0
	3	7		-	1	1														1	43	55	0
	2	6		-	4	0														1	44	55	0
44	3	8		-	1	0														0	30	70	0
	3	8		-	0	1														0	30	70	0
	2	7		-	3	0														0	30	70	0
43	3	9		-	0	0														0	20	80	0
	2	8		-	2	0														0	20	80	0
	2	8		-	1	1														0	20	80	0
42	2	9		-	1	0														0	11	89	1
	2	9		-	0	1														0	11	89	1
41	2	10		-	0	0															6	93	1
40	1	10		-	1	0															2	94	3
39	1	11		-	0	0															1	93	7
38	0	11		-	1	0															0	86	13
37	0	12		-	0	0															0	77	23

Total:											0		0	0	0					18	47	34	0