Alberni Valley Bulldogs Hockey 2012-2013

Beat Cowichan Valley 5-3, playoff odds unchanged at 99.999996%

50 points 22 16-5 1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cowichan Valley 3 Alberni Valley 5	*In		+0.1
Merritt 3 Nanaimo 5			-0.1

Tuesday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Alberni Valley finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

74	12	0		-	0	0		In		1	1	97	1							4,867
73	11	0		-	1	0		In		0	0	94	6							2,655	*
72	11	1		-	0	0		In		0	0	87	12	0						15,295	*
71	10	1		-	1	0		In		0	0	74	26	0						37,686	*
70	10	2		-	0	0		In		0	0	61	38	1						120,015	*
69	9	2		-	1	0		In			0	43	53	4	0					230,190	*
68	9	3		-	0	0		In			0	30	62	8	0					272,881
	8	2		-	2	0		In			0	27	63	9	0					248,218	*
67	8	3		-	1	0		In		0	0	15	67	17	1					512,630
	8	3		-	0	1		In			0	15	67	17	1					298,655	*
66	8	4		-	0	0		In			0	8	64	25	2					684,012
	7	3		-	2	0		In			0	7	61	30	3					419,666
	7	3		-	1	1		In			0	7	63	28	2					322,176	*
65	7	4		-	1	0		In				3	52	38	7					1,118,303
	7	4		-	0	1		In				3	55	35	7					295,028
	6	3		-	3	0		In				2	49	41	8					420,673	*
64	7	5		-	0	0		In				1	42	43	15					1,195,945
	6	4		-	2	0		In				1	37	46	16					789,082
	6	4		-	1	1		In				1	38	45	16					628,459	*
63	6	5		-	1	0		In				0	25	45	30					1,685,102
	6	5		-	0	1		In				0	28	43	29					445,160
	5	4		-	3	0		In				0	21	48	32					311,326
	5	4		-	2	1		In				0	23	46	31					359,454	*
62	6	6		-	0	0		In				0	17	40	44					1,498,503
	5	5		-	2	0		In				0	13	41	45					995,862
	5	5		-	1	1		In				0	15	41	45					532,912
	4	4		-	3	1		In				0	13	42	46					273,107	*
61	5	6		-	1	0		In				0	7	30	62					1,774,326
	5	6		-	0	1		In				0	9	30	61					475,599
	4	5		-	3	0		In				0	5	31	64					322,386
	4	5		-	2	1		In				0	6	31	63					375,972	*
60	5	7		-	0	0		In				0	4	21	75	0	0			1,353,330
	4	6		-	2	0		In				0	3	21	76	0	0			859,345
	4	6		-	1	1		In				0	3	21	76	0	0			690,143	*
59	4	7		-	1	0		In					1	12	87	1	0			1,311,337
	4	7		-	0	1		In					1	12	86	1	0			353,290
	3	6		-	3	0		In					1	12	87	1	0			472,596	*
58	4	8		-	0	0		In					1	6	91	2	0			875,035
	3	7		-	2	0		In					0	6	91	3	0			499,198
	3	7		-	1	1		In					0	6	91	2	0			391,440	*
57	3	8		-	1	0		In					0	2	91	5	1			665,375
	3	8		-	0	1		In					0	2	91	5	1			382,400	*
56	3	9		-	0	0		In					0	1	84	10	5			395,468
	2	8		-	2	0		In					0	1	83	11	5			326,177	*
55	2	9		-	1	0		In					0	0	74	14	11			331,506	*
54	2	10		-	0	0		In						0	57	19	24			187,425	*
53	1	10		-	1	0		In						0	42	19	39			60,997	*
52	1	11		-	0	0		In							25	17	58			27,510	*
51	0	11		-	1	0		100.0	%						14	12	74	0		4,741	*
50	0	12		-	0	0		In							6	8	86			5,727

Total:								100.0	%	0	0	3	21	27	48	1	1	0		25,859,185

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Merritt 3 Nanaimo 5	+0.2
Cowichan Valley 3 Alberni Valley 5	-0.2

Tuesday	None

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

74	12	0		-	0	0		0	1	1	0	97		1
73	11	0		-	1	0			0	0	0	94		6
72	11	1		-	0	0			0	0	0	87	0	12		0
71	10	1		-	1	0			0	0	0	74	0	26		0
70	10	2		-	0	0			0	0	0	60	1	38		1
69	9	2		-	1	0				0	0	41	2	53		4	0
68	9	3		-	0	0				0	0	27	3	62	0	8	0
	8	2		-	2	0				0	0	24	3	63	0	9	0
67	8	3		-	1	0			0	0	0	12	3	67	0	17	1
	8	3		-	0	1				0	0	12	3	67	0	17	1
66	8	4		-	0	0				0	0	5	3	64	0	25	2
	7	3		-	2	0				0	0	4	3	61	0	30	3
	7	3		-	1	1					0	4	3	63	0	28	2
65	7	4		-	1	0						1	1	52	0	38	7
	7	4		-	0	1						1	1	55	0	35	7
	6	3		-	3	0						1	1	48	1	41	8
64	7	5		-	0	0						0	1	40	1	43	15
	6	4		-	2	0						0	0	35	1	46	16
	6	4		-	1	1						0	1	37	1	45	16
63	6	5		-	1	0						0	0	23	2	45	30
	6	5		-	0	1						0	0	26	2	43	29
	5	4		-	3	0						0	0	19	2	48	32
	5	4		-	2	1						0	0	21	2	46	31
62	6	6		-	0	0						0	0	14	2	40	44
	5	5		-	2	0						0	0	11	2	41	45
	5	5		-	1	1						0	0	12	2	41	45
	4	4		-	3	1						0	0	10	2	42	46
61	5	6		-	1	0						0	0	5	2	30	62
	5	6		-	0	1							0	6	2	30	61
	4	5		-	3	0							0	4	2	31	64
	4	5		-	2	1							0	4	2	31	63
60	5	7		-	0	0							0	2	2	21	75	0	0
	4	6		-	2	0							0	2	1	21	76	0	0
	4	6		-	1	1							0	2	1	21	76	0	0
59	4	7		-	1	0								0	1	12	87	1	0
	4	7		-	0	1								1	1	12	86	1	0
	3	6		-	3	0								0	0	12	87	1	0
58	4	8		-	0	0								0	0	6	91	2	0
	3	7		-	2	0								0	0	6	91	3	0
	3	7		-	1	1								0	0	6	91	2	0
57	3	8		-	1	0								0	0	2	91	5	1
	3	8		-	0	1								0	0	2	91	5	1
56	3	9		-	0	0								0	0	1	84	10	5
	2	8		-	2	0								0	0	1	83	11	5
55	2	9		-	1	0									0	0	74	14	11
54	2	10		-	0	0										0	57	19	24
53	1	10		-	1	0										0	42	19	39
52	1	11		-	0	0											25	17	58
51	0	11		-	1	0											14	12	74	0
50	0	12		-	0	0											6	8	86

Total:								0	0	0	0	2	1	20	1	27	48	1	1	0