| Method: | |
| Weighted | |
| 50/50 | |
| Season: | |
| AFL | |
| 28 | Kangaroos |
| 24 | Cats |
| 24 | Swans |
| 20 | Giants |
| 20 | Bulldogs |
| 20 | Hawks |
| 16 | Eagles |
| 16 | Crows |
| 16 | Demons |
| 16 | Power |
| 12 | Suns |
| 12 | Blues |
| 8 | Saints |
| 8 | Magpies |
| 4 | Lions |
| 4 | Bombers |
| 4 | Tigers |
| 0 | Dockers |
| Australia | |
| AFL | |
| USA | |
| Australia | |
| Canada | |
| What is this? | |
| Blog | |
| Friends | |
Sydney Swans Playoff Chances 2016
Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 96.9%
24 points 6-0-1
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 5/6 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 4 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Swans 135 Bombers 54 | +1.7 | +4.8 | +0.3 | |||
| Cats 123 Eagles 79 | +0.2 | |||||
| Dockers 77 Giants 95 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -0.0 | |||
| Power 136 Lions 59 | -0.1 | -0.2 | ||||
| Tigers 90 Hawks 136 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.0 | |||
| Saints 75 Kangaroos 82 | -0.3 | -0.0 | ||||
| Suns 87 Demons 160 | +0.1 | |||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||
| Week of 5/13 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 4 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tigers vs Swans | -3.4-0.8+0.9 | -13.5-4.4+3.8 | -0.8-0.3+0.2 | |||
| Hawks vs Swans | -2.1+0.2+1.6 | -11.1-0.4+8.4 | -0.6-0.0+0.5 | |||
| Swans vs Kangaroos | +1.7+0.6-1.3 | +9.4+1.8-7.1 | +0.6+0.1-0.5 | |||
| Demons vs Lions | -0.1+0.1+0.3 | -0.3+0.4+0.7 | ||||
| Crows vs Cats | -0.3-0.1+0.2 | +0.4*+0.1-0.2 | +0.1+0.0-0.0 | |||
| Eagles vs Saints | -0.1+0.1+0.2 | -0.4*+0.2+0.7 | ||||
| Kangaroos vs Blues | +0.1-0.1-0.2 | -0.2*+0.1+0.5 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | |||
| Crows vs Giants | -0.2*+0.0+0.1 | +0.9+0.4-0.7 | ||||
| Blues vs Cats | -0.2*-0.0+0.1 | +1.1+0.3-0.5 | +0.1+0.0-0.0 | |||
| Demons vs Bulldogs | -0.1*-0.0+0.1 | +0.8+0.4-0.7 | ||||
| Lions vs Hawks | +0.2*+0.0-0.1 | +2.0+0.5-0.7 | +0.1+0.0-0.0 | |||
| Hawks vs Dockers | -0.0*+0.1+0.2 | -0.6+0.7+2.1 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | |||
| Magpies vs Bulldogs | +0.1*+0.0-0.1 | +1.8+0.4-0.9 | +0.1*+0.0-0.0 | |||
| Blues vs Power | +0.1*+0.1-0.1 | +0.5*+0.2-0.4 | ||||
| Suns vs Crows | +0.1*+0.0-0.1 | +0.4*+0.1-0.3 | ||||
| Eagles vs Suns | -0.1*+0.1+0.1 | -0.4*+0.2+0.5 | ||||
| Giants vs Suns | +0.0*-0.0-0.1 | -0.9+0.4+1.6 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | |||
| Saints vs Bombers | -0.0*-0.0+0.1 | |||||
| Saints vs Dockers | -0.0*-0.0+0.1 | |||||
| Magpies vs Cats | +1.4+0.5-0.5 | +0.1+0.0-0.0 | ||||
| Bombers vs Kangaroos | +0.7*+0.0-0.1 | +0.1+0.0-0.0 | ||||
| Power vs Eagles | +0.1+0.3-0.1 | |||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Swans finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | playoffs | Top 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | Count | ||||
| 84 | 15 | - | 0 | - | 0 | In | Yes | 100 | 6,545 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 82 | 14 | - | 1 | - | 0 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | 3,251 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 80 | 14 | - | 0 | - | 1 | In | Yes | 99 | 1 | 0 | 50,736 | * | ||||||||||||||||||
| 78 | 13 | - | 1 | - | 1 | In | Yes | 97 | 3 | 0 | 30,422 | * | ||||||||||||||||||
| 76 | 13 | - | 0 | - | 2 | In | Yes | 91 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 225,296 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | - | 2 | - | 1 | In | Yes | 92 | 8 | 0 | 8,564 | * | |||||||||||||||||||
| 74 | 12 | - | 1 | - | 2 | In | Yes | 82 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 125,929 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | - | 3 | - | 1 | In | Yes | 84 | 16 | 0 | 1,513 | * | |||||||||||||||||||
| 72 | 12 | - | 0 | - | 3 | In | Yes | 68 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 618,096 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | - | 2 | - | 2 | In | Yes | 69 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 32,733 | * | ||||||||||||||||||
| 70 | 11 | - | 1 | - | 3 | In | Yes | 50 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 316,734 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | - | 3 | - | 2 | In | Yes | 53 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 5,154 | * | ||||||||||||||||||
| 68 | 11 | - | 0 | - | 4 | In | 100.0 | % | 33 | 52 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,155,771 | |||||||||||||||
| 10 | - | 2 | - | 3 | In | 100.0 | 34 | 52 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 73,903 | * | |||||||||||||||||
| 66 | 10 | - | 1 | - | 4 | In | 99.9 | 17 | 52 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 538,772 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 | - | 3 | - | 3 | In | 99.9 | 18 | 51 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 10,494 | * | |||||||||||||||||
| 64 | 10 | - | 0 | - | 5 | In | 99.0 | 7 | 39 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,550,954 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | - | 2 | - | 4 | In | 99.1 | 8 | 40 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 114,496 | * | ||||||||||||||||
| 62 | 9 | - | 1 | - | 5 | In | 95.6 | 2 | 23 | 47 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 652,244 | |||||||||||||||
| 8 | - | 3 | - | 4 | In | 95.9 | 2 | 24 | 47 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14,344 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 60 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 6 | In | 83.5 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 36 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1,542,390 | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | - | 2 | - | 5 | In | 84.0 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 37 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 122,529 | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | - | 4 | - | 4 | In | 84.9 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 36 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1,193 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 58 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 6 | 100.0 | % | 62.1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 39 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 578,930 | ||||||||||||
| 7 | - | 3 | - | 5 | In | 63.5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 40 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13,687 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 56 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 7 | 100.0 | 35.3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 36 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1,160,057 | ||||||||||||
| 7 | - | 2 | - | 6 | 100.0 | 35.4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 97,610 | * | |||||||||||||
| 54 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 7 | 99.7 | 13.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 384,580 | ||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 3 | - | 6 | 99.7 | 13.7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 9,373 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 52 | 7 | - | 0 | - | 8 | 97.2 | 3.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 31 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 664,284 | |||||||||||
| 6 | - | 2 | - | 7 | 97.3 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 31 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 56,146 | * | ||||||||||||
| 50 | 6 | - | 1 | - | 8 | 88.0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 190,667 | ||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 3 | - | 7 | 88.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 36 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4,616 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 48 | 6 | - | 0 | - | 9 | 65.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 35 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 289,902 | ||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 8 | 65.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 36 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 23,745 | * | |||||||||||||
| 46 | 5 | - | 1 | - | 9 | 34.5 | No | 0 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 37 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 70,559 | |||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 8 | 37.0 | No | 1 | 10 | 27 | 36 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1,641 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 44 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 10 | 14.4 | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 94,693 | ||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 2 | - | 9 | 14.1 | No | 0 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7,150 | * | |||||||||||||
| 42 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 10 | 2.6 | No | 0 | 2 | 15 | 35 | 33 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 19,519 | * | |||||||||||||
| 40 | 4 | - | 0 | - | 11 | 0.5 | No | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 38 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22,918 | |||||||||||||
| 3 | - | 2 | - | 10 | 0.4 | No | 0 | 6 | 22 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 1,524 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 38 | 3 | - | 1 | - | 11 | Out | No | 1 | 9 | 28 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 3,698 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 36 | 3 | - | 0 | - | 12 | Out | No | 0 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 34 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4,206 | * | |||||||||||||
| 34 | 2 | - | 1 | - | 12 | Out | No | 0 | 4 | 21 | 44 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 490 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 32 | 2 | - | 0 | - | 13 | Out | No | 1 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 15 | 3 | 549 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 30 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 13 | Out | No | 18 | 36 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 28 | |||||||||||||||||
| 28 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 14 | Out | No | 5 | 33 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 39 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 26 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 14 | Out | No | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 15 | Out | No | 1 | 10 | 34 | 44 | 12 | 1,505 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 96.9 | % | 71.3 | % | 15 | 21 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10,904,180 | |||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:25 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
