Swan Divers Playoff Chances 2012

Beat Little Pwag Scrods 138.4-113.4, playoff odds up 17.1 to 64.4%

4-4-0 .500

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/29	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Swan Divers 138.4 Little Pwag Scrods 113.4	+15.6		+0.2
Morganville Bees 124.6 Hokkaido Fishbulbs 92.3	-3.6		-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hokkaido Fishbulbs vs Swan Divers	-20.2-10.1+3.0		-0.3-0.1+0.0
Morganville Bees vs Brockway Blinkies	-16.3-9.0+4.6		-0.2-0.1+0.0
Little Pwag Scrods vs NorthHaverbrook Monorails	-0.8+1.0+1.1		-0.1+0.1+0.1

Chances based on how well the Swan Divers finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	Count

9		5	-	0	-	0	In		1	72	27			323,332
8	.5	4	-	0	-	1	In		1	68	31			3,920
8		4	-	1	-	0	99.3	%	0	34	65	1		2,280,424
		3	-	0	-	2	In			50	50			10
7	.5	3	-	1	-	1	97.5			28	69	3		20,097
7		3	-	2	-	0	87.6		0	7	80	12		5,477,249
		2	-	1	-	2	89.1			14	75	11		64
6	.5	2	-	2	-	1	72.2			4	69	28		33,518
6		2	-	3	-	0	50.7			0	50	49		5,635,214
		1	-	2	-	2	39.1				39	61		64
5	.5	1	-	3	-	1	24.8			0	25	75		20,880
5		1	-	4	-	0	11.6			0	12	88	0	2,355,020
		0	-	3	-	2	Out					100		11
4	.5	0	-	4	-	1	1.1				1	99	0	3,526
4		0	-	5	-	0	Out					100	0	244,488

Total:							64.4	%	0	9	56	36	0	16,397,817

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 10/29	100.0*	Lottery seed
Swan Divers 138.4 Little Pwag Scrods 113.4	-0.8
NorthHaverbrook Monorails 91.6 Cypress Creek Scorpios 86.2	+0.1
Fightin' Hellfish 103.7 Brockway Blinkies 120.9	-0.0
Morganville Bees 124.6 Hokkaido Fishbulbs 92.3	+0.0
Springfield Isotopes 153 Capital City Goofballs 119.2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hokkaido Fishbulbs vs Swan Divers	+1.2+0.5-0.2
Morganville Bees vs Brockway Blinkies	+0.2+0.1-0.0
Cypress Creek Scorpios vs Springfield Isotopes	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Little Pwag Scrods vs NorthHaverbrook Monorails	-0.1-0.0+0.1

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

9		5	-	0	-	0	1	62	34	4
8	.5	4	-	0	-	1	1	51	41	7	0
8		4	-	1	-	0	0	11	41	41	7	0	0
		3	-	0	-	2		10	40	30	20
7	.5	3	-	1	-	1		3	27	52	18	1	0
7		3	-	2	-	0		0	3	28	43	22	4	0	0
		2	-	1	-	2			5	36	45	14
6	.5	2	-	2	-	1			0	4	30	46	18	1
6		2	-	3	-	0			0	1	9	32	39	18	2
		1	-	2	-	2					9	30	41	17	3
5	.5	1	-	3	-	1					0	5	32	50	13
5		1	-	4	-	0					0	1	15	53	31	0
		0	-	3	-	2							9	45	45
4	.5	0	-	4	-	1							1	25	74	0
4		0	-	5	-	0							0	20	80	0

Total:							0	3	8	16	18	18	17	14	6	0