Morganville Bees Playoff Chances 2012

Beat Hokkaido Fishbulbs 124.6-92.3, playoff odds down 15 to 37.9%

4-4-0 .500

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/29	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Swan Divers 138.4 Little Pwag Scrods 113.4	-15.0		-0.1
Morganville Bees 124.6 Hokkaido Fishbulbs 92.3	+3.7		+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Morganville Bees vs Brockway Blinkies	+18.2+10.4-5.2		+0.3+0.2-0.1
Hokkaido Fishbulbs vs Swan Divers	+18.7+10.1-2.7		+0.2+0.1-0.0
Little Pwag Scrods vs NorthHaverbrook Monorails	-1.0*+0.7+1.4		-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Morganville Bees finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	Count

9		5	-	0	-	0	In		2	91	8			152,969
8	.5	4	-	0	-	1	In		1	84	16			1,922
8		4	-	1	-	0	97.9	%	0	48	49	2		1,256,163
		3	-	0	-	2	In			77	23			13
7	.5	3	-	1	-	1	94.3			36	59	6		12,843
7		3	-	2	-	0	74.2		0	9	66	26		3,919,533
		2	-	1	-	2	69.8			21	49	30		43
6	.5	2	-	2	-	1	57.0			3	54	43		29,073
6		2	-	3	-	0	29.7			0	29	70		5,776,094
		1	-	2	-	2	30.8				31	69		65
5	.5	1	-	3	-	1	12.1			0	12	88		27,735
5		1	-	4	-	0	4.2			0	4	96	0	4,087,538
		0	-	3	-	2	4.8				5	95		42
4	.5	0	-	4	-	1	0.2				0	100	0	9,686
4		0	-	5	-	0	Out					100	0	1,124,098

Total:							37.9	%	0	7	31	62	0	16,397,817

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 10/29	100.0*	Lottery seed
Morganville Bees 124.6 Hokkaido Fishbulbs 92.3	-0.2
Swan Divers 138.4 Little Pwag Scrods 113.4	+0.1
NorthHaverbrook Monorails 91.6 Cypress Creek Scorpios 86.2	+0.1
Fightin' Hellfish 103.7 Brockway Blinkies 120.9	-0.0
Springfield Isotopes 153 Capital City Goofballs 119.2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Morganville Bees vs Brockway Blinkies	-1.1-0.5+0.3
Hokkaido Fishbulbs vs Swan Divers	-0.2-0.1+0.0
Cypress Creek Scorpios vs Springfield Isotopes	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Little Pwag Scrods vs NorthHaverbrook Monorails	-0.0-0.0+0.1

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

9		5	-	0	-	0	1	77	21	1
8	.5	4	-	0	-	1	1	63	34	3
8		4	-	1	-	0	0	13	42	37	7	0	0
		3	-	0	-	2		15	38	46
7	.5	3	-	1	-	1		3	29	50	17	1	0
7		3	-	2	-	0		0	3	20	41	29	7	0	0
		2	-	1	-	2				28	35	30	7
6	.5	2	-	2	-	1			0	3	27	47	21	2
6		2	-	3	-	0			0	0	5	22	41	29	4
		1	-	2	-	2					6	22	37	28	8
5	.5	1	-	3	-	1					0	3	27	54	15
5		1	-	4	-	0					0	0	9	51	40	0
		0	-	3	-	2						2	2	48	48
4	.5	0	-	4	-	1							0	24	76	0
4		0	-	5	-	0							0	17	83	0

Total:							0	2	4	8	12	15	18	24	17	0