Auckland Title Chances 2015

Lost to STH 2-6, title odds down 15.6 to 2.6%

8 points 2-1 3-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 11/28	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Champion	100.0*	Average seed
AKL vs STH	+5.5+0.6+0.6-1.3-1.3-2.2		+5.5+0.6+0.6-1.3-1.3-2.2		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
AKL vs STH	+5.5+0.6+0.6-1.3-1.3-2.2		+5.5+0.6+0.6-1.3-1.3-2.2		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

Chances based on how well the AKL finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100
If finish:									Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	wins title		Champion		1	2	3	Count

25	-26								Yes		Yes		100			158,557,054	*
24		5	-	0	0		-	1	94.8	%	94.8	%	95	5		210,496,280	*
23		4	-	1	0		-	1	59.8		59.8		60	40		279,834,149
		5	-	0	1		-	0	55.2		55.2		55	45		303,253,750	*
22		4	-	1	1		-	0	23.6		23.6		24	76		581,202,717
		3	-	2	0		-	1	27.8		27.8		28	72		268,132,065
		4	-	0	0		-	2	21.3		21.3		21	79		221,669,976	*
21		4	-	0	1		-	1	5.4		5.4		5	95		834,724,991
		3	-	2	1		-	0	7.8		7.8		8	92		556,886,513
		3	-	1	0		-	2	7.4		7.4		7	93		519,376,394	*
20		3	-	1	1		-	1	1.4		1.4		1	99		1,604,557,907
		4	-	0	2		-	0	1.2		1.2		1	99		866,871,630
		2	-	2	0		-	2	1.7		1.7		2	98		278,788,151
		2	-	3	1		-	0	1.6		1.6		2	98		464,733,739	*
19		3	-	1	2		-	0	0.3		0.3		0	100		1,666,459,452
		2	-	2	1		-	1	0.3		0.3		0	100		1,157,985,155
		3	-	0	1		-	2	0.2		0.2		0	100		1,030,471,910
		2	-	1	0		-	3	0.2		0.2		0	100		395,532,157	*
18		3	-	0	2		-	1	0.0		0.0		0	100	0	2,140,672,460
		2	-	1	1		-	2	0.0		0.0		0	100	0	1,486,539,901
		2	-	2	2		-	0	0.0		0.0		0	100	0	1,202,534,501
		1	-	3	1		-	1	0.0		0.0		0	100	0	566,472,449	*
17		2	-	1	2		-	1	No		No			100	0	3,087,747,669
		3	-	0	3		-	0	No		No			100	0	1,482,446,513
		1	-	2	1		-	2	No		No			100	0	715,214,192
		2	-	0	1		-	3	No		No			100	0	524,856,249
		1	-	3	2		-	0	No		No			100	0	509,763,175	*
16		2	-	1	3		-	0	No		No			100	0	2,138,264,056
		2	-	0	2		-	2	No		No			100	0	1,635,822,290
		1	-	2	2		-	1	No		No			100	0	1,485,595,512
		1	-	1	1		-	3	No		No			100	0	689,548,291	*
15		2	-	0	3		-	1	No		No			98	2	2,266,341,359
		1	-	1	2		-	2	No		No			98	2	1,573,034,144
		1	-	2	3		-	0	No		No			98	2	1,028,807,345
		0	-	3	2		-	1	No		No			98	2	238,412,405
		0	-	2	1		-	3	No		No			98	2	218,888,651	*
14		1	-	1	3		-	1	No		No			95	5	2,179,271,178
		2	-	0	4		-	0	No		No			96	4	1,188,827,773
		1	-	0	2		-	3	No		No			93	7	386,975,729
		0	-	2	2		-	2	No		No			94	6	589,015,298	*
13		1	-	1	4		-	0	No		No			88	12	1,143,164,586
		1	-	0	3		-	2	No		No			84	16	805,217,472
		0	-	2	3		-	1	No		No			84	16	716,136,619	*
12		1	-	0	4		-	1	No		No			67	33	840,900,481
		0	-	1	3		-	2	No		No			59	41	387,719,767
		0	-	2	4		-	0	No		No			69	31	302,118,878	*
11		0	-	1	4		-	1	No		No			33	67	404,861,781
		1	-	0	5		-	0	No		No			41	59	429,721,919	*
10		0	-	1	5		-	0	No		No			6	94	289,027,090	*
8	-9								No		No				100	172,284,677	*

Total:									2.6	%	2.6	%	3	92	5	44,225,738,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 11/28	100.0*	Lottery seed
AKL vs STH	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
AKL vs STH	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

									100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3

25	-26								100
24		5	-	0	0		-	1	95	5
23		4	-	1	0		-	1	60	40
		5	-	0	1		-	0	55	45
22		4	-	1	1		-	0	24	76
		3	-	2	0		-	1	28	72
		4	-	0	0		-	2	21	79
21		4	-	0	1		-	1	5	95
		3	-	2	1		-	0	8	92
		3	-	1	0		-	2	7	93
20		3	-	1	1		-	1	1	99
		4	-	0	2		-	0	1	99
		2	-	2	0		-	2	2	98
		2	-	3	1		-	0	2	98
19		3	-	1	2		-	0	0	100
		2	-	2	1		-	1	0	100
		3	-	0	1		-	2	0	100
		2	-	1	0		-	3	0	100
18		3	-	0	2		-	1	0	100	0
		2	-	1	1		-	2	0	100	0
		2	-	2	2		-	0	0	100	0
		1	-	3	1		-	1	0	100	0
17		2	-	1	2		-	1		100	0
		3	-	0	3		-	0		100	0
		1	-	2	1		-	2		100	0
		2	-	0	1		-	3		100	0
		1	-	3	2		-	0		100	0
16		2	-	1	3		-	0		100	0
		2	-	0	2		-	2		100	0
		1	-	2	2		-	1		100	0
		1	-	1	1		-	3		100	0
15		2	-	0	3		-	1		98	2
		1	-	1	2		-	2		98	2
		1	-	2	3		-	0		98	2
		0	-	3	2		-	1		98	2
		0	-	2	1		-	3		98	2
14		1	-	1	3		-	1		95	5
		2	-	0	4		-	0		96	4
		1	-	0	2		-	3		93	7
		0	-	2	2		-	2		94	6
13		1	-	1	4		-	0		88	12
		1	-	0	3		-	2		84	16
		0	-	2	3		-	1		84	16
12		1	-	0	4		-	1		67	33
		0	-	1	3		-	2		59	41
		0	-	2	4		-	0		69	31
11		0	-	1	4		-	1		33	67
		1	-	0	5		-	0		41	59
10		0	-	1	5		-	0		6	94
8	-9										100

Total:									3	92	5