Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 2010-2011

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.9 to 26.1%

92 points 24-8 25-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	-1.0		-0.1
Canucks 3 Blues 2	+0.2		+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Ducks vs Wild	+9.2+2.2+2.0-3.7-3.8-8.7		+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.6
Flames vs Sharks	-0.6-0.4-0.2+0.4*+0.2+0.8		-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Oilers vs Blues	+0.4+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2-0.5		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ducks finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

155		21	-	0	0		-	0	In		37	63														62
146	-148								In			100														7	*
145		15	-	3	1		-	2	In			60	20	20												5	*
144		14	-	4	1		-	2	In			75	25													24	*
143		14	-	4	2		-	1	In			62	36	2												45	*
142		14	-	3	2		-	2	In			55	35	10												89	*
141		13	-	4	2		-	2	In			45	36	18												179	*
140		13	-	3	2		-	3	In			36	44	19	1											304	*
139		13	-	3	3		-	2	In			26	44	29	2											569	*
138		12	-	4	3		-	2	In			17	45	32	6											975	*
137		12	-	3	3		-	3	In			11	39	37	12	1	0									1,602	*
136		11	-	4	3		-	3	In			5	33	40	19	3	0									2,563	*
135		11	-	4	4		-	2	In			2	24	38	28	7	1	0								3,987	*
134		11	-	3	4		-	3	In			1	18	29	36	14	2	0								5,870	*
133		10	-	4	4		-	3	100.0	%		0	11	22	38	23	5	1	0							8,436	*
132		10	-	4	5		-	2	99.9			0	6	13	34	31	12	2	0							11,321	*
131		10	-	3	5		-	3	99.3			0	3	7	27	36	21	6	1	0						15,385	*
130		9	-	4	5		-	3	97.8				1	3	16	34	31	12	2	0						19,941	*
129		9	-	3	5		-	4	93.6				1	1	9	27	35	22	6	1	0					24,872	*
128		9	-	3	6		-	3	85.5				0	0	3	16	34	31	13	2	0					30,818	*
127		8	-	4	6		-	3	71.3				0	0	1	8	26	36	23	6	1	0				36,272	*
126		8	-	3	6		-	4	53.6				0	0	0	3	16	34	33	12	2	0				41,272	*
125		8	-	3	7		-	3	35.4						0	1	8	26	38	22	5	0	0			46,080	*
124		7	-	4	7		-	3	19.8						0	0	3	17	36	32	11	1	0			50,475	*
123		7	-	3	7		-	4	9.7						0	0	1	9	28	38	20	4	0			29,050	*
		8	-	2	8		-	3	9.4							0	1	8	28	38	20	4	0			23,365	*
122		7	-	3	8		-	3	3.8							0	0	4	19	38	30	9	1			53,920	*
121		6	-	4	8		-	3	1.3							0	0	1	11	32	38	16	2			52,983	*
120		6	-	3	8		-	4	0.4								0	0	5	24	41	26	4	0		51,050	*
119		6	-	3	9		-	3	0.1									0	2	15	39	36	8	0		47,957	*
118		6	-	2	9		-	4	0.0									0	1	8	33	44	14	0		43,184	*
117		5	-	3	9		-	4	Out										0	4	24	48	23	0		37,666	*
116		5	-	3	10		-	3	0.0									0	0	2	17	48	33	1		32,330	*
115		5	-	2	10		-	4	Out										0	1	10	45	43	2		27,038	*
114		4	-	3	10		-	4	Out											0	5	38	53	3		21,324	*
113		4	-	3	11		-	3	Out											0	3	30	62	6		16,310	*
112		4	-	2	11		-	4	Out											0	1	23	66	10		12,387	*
111		4	-	2	12		-	3	Out												1	16	68	15		8,725	*
110		3	-	2	11		-	5	Out												0	10	68	22		6,117	*
109		3	-	2	12		-	4	Out												0	6	65	29		4,208	*
108		3	-	2	13		-	3	Out												0	4	58	39		2,697	*
107		2	-	2	12		-	5	Out												0	2	52	46		1,644	*
106		2	-	2	13		-	4	Out													1	45	54	0	1,027	*
105		2	-	2	14		-	3	Out													0	32	68	0	542	*
104		2	-	1	14		-	4	Out													1	25	72	1	338	*
103		1	-	2	14		-	4	Out													1	20	78	1	167	*
102		1	-	1	14		-	5	Out														12	88		81	*
101		1	-	1	15		-	4	Out														15	74	11	46	*
97	-100								Out															100		22	*
92		0	-	0	21		-	0	Out															68	32	62

Total:									26.1	%	0	0	1	1	3	5	7	9	13	15	17	17	12	1	0	775,393

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Wings 1 Stars 4	+0.1
Canucks 3 Blues 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ducks vs Wild	-0.9-0.2-0.2+0.4+0.4+0.9
Oilers vs Blues	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Flames vs Sharks	+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

155	21	-	0	0		-	0	6	31	63
148	16	-	3	0		-	2			100
146	16	-	2	1		-	2			17	83
145	15	-	3	1		-	2			20	40	20		20
144	14	-	4	1		-	2			21	54	25
143	14	-	4	2		-	1			11	51	33	2	2
142	14	-	3	2		-	2			9	46	29	6	9	1
141	13	-	4	2		-	2			4	41	28	8	13	5
140	13	-	3	2		-	3			3	33	33	11	10	9	1
139	13	-	3	3		-	2			2	24	30	14	12	16	2
138	12	-	4	3		-	2			1	16	27	18	11	21	6	0
137	12	-	3	3		-	3			0	11	22	18	10	27	11	1	1		0
136	11	-	4	3		-	3			0	5	15	18	9	31	17	2	3		0
135	11	-	4	4		-	2				2	8	16	6	32	24	5	7	0	1		0
134	11	-	3	4		-	3				1	5	13	3	26	27	9	13	0	2		0
133	10	-	4	4		-	3				0	2	9	1	21	25	13	22	0	5		1		0
132	10	-	4	5		-	2				0	1	5	1	13	19	16	30	1	12		2		0
131	10	-	3	5		-	3				0	0	3	0	6	11	16	33	3	21	0	6		1	0
130	9	-	4	5		-	3					0	1	0	3	5	11	29	6	31	0	12		2	0
129	9	-	3	5		-	4					0	1	0	1	2	7	20	7	35	0	22		6	1	0
128	9	-	3	6		-	3					0	0		0	0	3	11	6	33	1	31	0	12	2	0
127	8	-	4	6		-	3						0		0	0	1	4	4	24	2	36	0	22	6	1	0
126	8	-	3	6		-	4						0		0	0	0	1	2	14	2	34	0	32	12	2	0
125	8	-	3	7		-	3										0	0	1	6	2	26	0	37	22	5	0	0
124	7	-	4	7		-	3										0	0	0	2	1	16	1	35	32	11	1	0
123	7	-	3	7		-	4										0	0	0	1	0	8	1	28	39	20	4	0
122	7	-	3	8		-	3												0	0	0	3	0	19	38	30	9	1	0
121	6	-	4	8		-	3												0	0	0	1	0	10	32	38	16	2	0
120	6	-	3	8		-	4														0	0	0	5	23	41	26	4	0	0
119	6	-	3	9		-	3															0	0	2	14	38	36	10	0	0
118	6	-	2	9		-	4															0	0	1	7	30	43	17	2	0
117	5	-	3	9		-	4																	0	3	21	44	27	4	0	0
116	5	-	3	10		-	3																0	0	1	12	40	36	9	1	0
115	5	-	2	10		-	4																	0	0	6	30	42	18	4	0	0
114	4	-	3	10		-	4																		0	3	21	41	27	8	1	0	0
113	4	-	3	11		-	3																		0	1	11	35	34	15	3	0	0
112	4	-	2	11		-	4																			0	6	25	37	24	6	1	0
111	4	-	2	12		-	3																			0	3	17	34	32	12	2	0
110	3	-	2	11		-	5																			0	1	8	28	35	21	6	1	0
109	3	-	2	12		-	4																				0	4	19	35	29	11	2	0
108	3	-	2	13		-	3																				0	2	11	29	34	18	5	0
107	2	-	2	12		-	5																					0	5	23	35	27	9	1
106	2	-	2	13		-	4																					0	3	14	33	32	16	3
105	2	-	2	14		-	3																						1	6	21	35	27	10	0
104	2	-	1	14		-	4																						1	3	17	31	33	14	1
103	1	-	2	14		-	4																							1	9	31	40	20
102	1	-	1	14		-	5																							1	2	25	40	30	2
101	1	-	1	15		-	4																								2	13	39	35	11
100	1	-	1	16		-	3																									12	18	65	6
99	1	-	1	17		-	2																										100
98	1	-	1	18		-	1																												100
97	0	-	1	17		-	3																													100
92	0	-	0	21		-	0																											11	44	35	10

Total:								0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	4	1	6	0	9	0	12	15	16	14	9	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0