"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsChance will finish regular season at seedRelegated
5/17PGW-OTL-OTGD%Change12345678910111213141516Avg.Change%ChangeRPITuesday
NEDWRUS 3-093-00-0870.4%+11.420141198765443321104.9+1.160.5%-0.81at BELNetherlands
TURWPOL 3-082-10-0767.2+11.5181311108766544322115.3+1.180.6-1.01BRATurkey
USAWITA 3-072-00-1451.0+11.499988877765544326.9+1.251.7-2.38at JAPUnited States
SRBLBRA 1-362-01-0447.7-11.588888877766554327.2-1.142.1+0.83at THASerbia
CHNLKOR 0-362-01-0347.5-11.788888877766554327.2-1.162.1+0.86POLChina
BRAWSRB 3-162-01-0247.2+10.988888877766554327.3+1.232.2-2.58at TURBrazil
RUSLNED 0-362-01-0147.0-11.778888877766554327.3-1.182.2+0.96at ITARussia
BELWDOM 3-2 (ot)51-11-0143.7+7.467788777766655437.6+0.882.6-2.25NEDBelgium
KORWCHN 3-051-11-0143.7+10.667788777766655437.6+1.232.6-2.93GERKorea
THAWARG 3-031-02-0-225.4+7.623455667778888879.7+1.167.3-6.310SRBThailand
JAPWGER 3-131-02-0-325.2+7.423455667778888879.8+1.137.5-6.010USAJapan
GERLJAP 1-331-02-0-325.2-11.023455667778888879.8-1.247.5+2.612at KORGermany
POLLTUR 0-320-12-0-422.5-10.7234455677788899910.1-1.268.6+3.112at CHNPoland
DOMLBEL 2-3 (ot)20-01-2-514.0-6.21123344566791011131511.4-0.8715.4+3.714at ARGDominican Republic
ITALUSA 0-310-02-1-712.1-8.01122344566781011141711.7-1.1917.5+5.714RUSItaly
ARGLTHA 0-300-03-0-710.4-7.50112234456781012142012.0-1.1619.7+6.314DOMArgentina

This does not factor in the fact that China autmatically advances as the host of the final round. Due to site limitations this uses game diferential instead of game ratio for a tie breaker and uses drawn lots in place of any further tie breakers.

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Thursday, 5/17
RUS 0 NED 3
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
NED+11.5
-0.8
+1.2
RUS-11.6
+0.9
-1.2
BRA 3 SRB 1
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
SRB-11.6
+0.9
-1.2
BRA+11.3
-2.5
+1.3
THA+0.2
JAP+0.2
DOM+0.2
ITA+0.2
ARG+0.2
TUR 3 POL 0
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
TUR+11.6
-1.0
+1.2
THA-0.3
JAP-0.3
POL-10.7
+3.0
-1.2
DOM-0.2
ITA-0.2
ARG-0.3
USA 3 ITA 0
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
NED-0.3
TUR-0.3
USA+11.3
-2.4
+1.2
SRB-0.2
CHN-0.2
BRA-0.2
-0.2
RUS-0.3
BEL-0.2
-0.2
KOR-0.2
-0.2
THA-0.2
-0.4
JAP-0.2
-0.4
GER-0.2
-0.2
POL-0.2
-0.2
DOM-0.2
-0.4
ITA-8.2
+5.4
-1.2
ARG-0.2
-0.4
CHN 0 KOR 3
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
CHN-11.5
+1.0
-1.2
KOR+10.8
-2.8
+1.2
THA+0.2
JAP+0.3
DOM+0.3
ITA+0.2
ARG+0.2
GER 1 JAP 3
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
NED+0.2
TUR+0.2
USA+0.3
SRB+0.2
CHN+0.2
BRA+0.2
+0.2
RUS+0.2
BEL+0.2
+0.2
KOR+0.2
+0.2
THA+0.2
+0.4
JAP+7.8
-5.7
+1.2
GER-10.8
+3.0
-1.2
POL+0.2
+0.2
DOM+0.2
+0.4
ITA+0.2
+0.4
ARG+0.2
+0.4
ARG 0 THA 3
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
THA+7.7
-6.2
+1.2
ARG-7.5
+6.5
-1.2
DOM 2 BEL 3 (ot)
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
USA-0.2
CHN*-0.1
RUS-0.2
BEL+7.4
-2.2
+0.9
THA-0.2
JAP-0.2
DOM-6.2
+3.6
-0.9
ITA-0.1
ARG-0.2
Tuesday, 5/22
TUR vs BRAIf winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
TUR78.275.359.855.8
0.20.20.81.1
4.24.56.06.4
BRA35.038.755.659.6
3.63.01.10.8
8.58.16.46.0
THA vs SRBHomeHome OTAway OTAway
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
SRB35.439.356.059.9
3.73.01.00.7
8.58.16.36.0
THA35.531.818.315.6
3.64.49.611.1
8.58.910.611.0
ARG20.220.219.519.2
JAP vs USAHomeHome OTAway OTAway
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
USA38.942.259.563.1
3.02.50.70.6
8.17.86.05.7
JAP35.231.618.015.4
3.74.59.811.4
8.58.910.611.0
ITA17.817.817.217.0
ARG20.220.119.519.2
BEL vs NEDHomeHome OTAway OTAway
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
NED59.563.278.081.0
0.80.60.20.1
6.05.74.23.9
BEL55.852.335.131.6
1.11.33.64.3
6.46.78.58.9
CHN vs POLHomeHome OTAway OTAway
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
CHN59.655.839.035.3
0.71.03.03.7
6.06.48.18.5
POL13.415.629.031.9
12.911.35.24.4
11.311.09.28.9
ITA16.817.118.018.0
ARG19.219.520.220.2
KOR vs GERHomeHome OTAway OTAway
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
KOR55.752.335.231.6
1.01.23.64.5
6.46.78.58.9
GER15.418.031.635.2
11.49.84.53.7
11.010.68.98.5
ITA vs RUSHomeHome OTAway OTAway
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
NED70.770.770.169.9
TUR67.667.566.966.7
USA51.551.450.650.5
1.91.91.61.6
SRB48.148.047.447.2
2.32.32.02.0
CHN47.947.847.247.0
2.32.32.02.0
BRA47.747.646.946.7
2.42.32.12.0
RUS35.238.955.258.9
3.83.00.90.7
8.58.16.46.1
BEL44.144.043.443.2
2.82.82.52.4
KOR44.144.143.443.2
2.82.82.52.4
THA25.825.725.225.0
7.77.67.06.8
JAP25.525.524.924.8
7.97.97.16.9
GER25.525.524.924.8
7.97.97.16.9
POL22.822.822.422.2
9.29.18.17.9
DOM14.214.213.813.7
16.316.214.814.4
ITA18.515.87.46.1
10.512.322.124.6
10.711.012.512.8
ARG10.610.610.310.2
20.820.619.018.6
ARG vs DOMHomeHome OTAway OTAway
100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
DOM7.68.718.220.7
22.920.99.68.0
12.612.310.610.3
ARG16.013.86.45.2
11.313.125.428.6
11.011.312.813.1

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Dan for adding this league.