Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsERCCChance will finish regular season at seed
9/30PGW-D-LGD%Change%Change1234567Avg.ChangeRPI10/27
Glasgow235-0-07183.8%-1.086.7%-0.345251485212.1-0.063KingsGlasgow Warriors
MunsterWBlues 39-16194-0-16570.7+7.975.5+8.1272619139522.8+0.342at ConnachtMunster
Scarlets214-0-110068.1+0.576.6-0.42823181310632.8+0.046Scarlets
UlsterLZebre 23-27194-0-16066.6-6.175.4-5.62622181410632.9-0.271Ulster
Leinster194-0-15866.4+0.575.3-0.52622181410732.9+0.047Leinster
Cheetahs153-0-2-351.8-1.658.3-0.513192017141073.6-0.074Cheetahs
ZebreWUlster 27-23102-0-3-2534.0+5.840.9+7.471215181817144.3+0.3211Zebre
Edinburgh102-0-3-431.1+0.741.6-0.561114171919144.4+0.038Edinburgh
DragonsWKings 29-1392-0-3-3530.0+7.440.5+7.761014171920144.5+0.4212at OspreysNewport Gwent Dragons
Treviso92-0-3-4130.0+0.740.3-0.561014171920154.5+0.035Benetton Treviso
Connacht71-0-4-820.9-1.226.4-0.43711151822245.0-0.0513MunsterConnacht
BluesLMunster 16-3951-0-4-6019.4-8.624.9-8.43610141822265.1-0.439Cardiff Blues
Ospreys51-0-4-4619.4-1.225.3-0.43610151822265.1-0.0510DragonsOspreys
KingsLDragons 13-2900-0-5-1327.8-3.712.4-5.912581322495.9-0.2914at GlasgowSouthern Kings

Top three teams from each Conference qualify for playoffs. Top seven teams (excluding the South African teams, Cheetahs & Kings) qualify for European Champions Cup.

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 10/27
Scarlets vs BluesIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow84.584.583.0
*86.787.486.7
Munster71.871.769.5
*75.576.375.4
Scarlets76.162.260.6
84.671.769.1
2.53.13.2
Ulster65.267.768.0
*75.476.375.3
3.02.92.8
Leinster65.067.567.8
*75.376.175.2
3.02.92.8
Cheetahs53.152.950.3
*58.359.358.2
3.53.53.6
Zebre35.034.932.8
40.942.040.8
4.34.34.4
Edinburgh29.532.232.5
41.642.741.6
4.54.44.4
Dragons28.531.131.5
40.441.540.4
4.54.44.4
Treviso28.531.131.4
40.241.340.2
4.64.54.4
Connacht21.821.620.1
26.427.326.4
4.95.05.1
Blues13.714.425.7
17.119.033.2
5.45.44.7
Ospreys20.220.118.6
25.226.225.3
5.05.05.2
Kings7.28.28.3
12.412.912.4
Ospreys vs DragonsHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow82.984.584.6
86.887.586.6
Munster69.571.771.8
75.676.675.3
Scarlets69.569.366.5
76.777.676.4
2.82.82.9
Ulster68.167.865.1
75.576.575.2
2.92.93.0
Leinster67.967.664.9
75.476.475.1
2.82.93.0
Cheetahs50.352.953.1
58.359.658.0
3.63.53.5
Zebre32.834.935.1
41.042.140.7
4.44.34.3
Edinburgh32.432.229.7
41.742.941.4
4.44.44.5
Dragons22.623.938.0
31.033.750.6
4.84.84.1
Treviso31.331.028.7
40.441.540.0
4.44.44.6
Connacht20.121.621.7
26.527.526.2
5.15.04.9
Blues18.620.120.2
25.025.824.7
5.25.05.0
Ospreys25.714.313.6
33.819.417.3
4.75.45.4
Kings8.28.17.2
12.413.012.3
5.95.96.0
Zebre vs CheetahsHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow83.785.583.7
86.787.586.7
2.12.12.2
Munster70.673.270.6
75.476.675.5
2.82.72.8
Scarlets76.577.676.5
Ulster75.476.575.4
Leinster75.276.475.2
Cheetahs41.346.362.7
48.551.868.7
4.03.83.1
Zebre44.128.724.3
51.234.231.2
3.94.64.8
Edinburgh41.643.041.6
Dragons40.441.840.4
Treviso40.241.640.2
Connacht21.123.220.5
26.427.626.3
5.04.95.0
Blues19.621.519.0
24.926.024.8
5.15.05.1
Ospreys19.621.619.0
25.326.425.2
5.15.05.1
Kings12.413.112.3
Ulster vs LeinsterHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow86.787.286.7
Munster75.576.375.4
Scarlets68.070.068.0
76.577.376.6
2.82.72.8
Ulster76.361.857.4
83.670.367.7
2.53.13.3
Leinster57.261.676.1
67.670.283.5
3.33.12.5
Cheetahs58.259.258.2
Zebre40.941.940.8
Edinburgh30.933.431.0
41.642.741.6
4.44.34.4
Dragons29.932.229.9
40.441.540.4
4.54.44.5
Treviso30.032.229.9
40.241.340.2
4.54.44.5
Connacht26.427.426.4
Blues24.825.724.9
Ospreys25.326.225.2
Kings7.78.77.7
12.313.0*12.4
Treviso vs EdinburghHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow*86.787.586.6
Munster75.576.675.4
Scarlets68.070.567.9
76.577.776.5
2.82.72.8
Ulster*66.669.266.4
75.476.675.3
2.92.82.9
Leinster66.369.066.3
75.276.475.2
2.92.82.9
Cheetahs58.259.658.2
Zebre40.842.240.8
Edinburgh22.125.640.6
31.834.852.1
4.94.74.0
Dragons30.032.229.8
40.441.840.4
4.54.44.5
Treviso39.324.821.3
50.533.630.6
4.04.74.9
Connacht26.427.626.4
Blues24.825.924.8
Ospreys25.226.425.2
Kings7.78.67.7
12.413.112.4
5.95.85.9
Connacht vs MunsterHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow*83.885.183.6
86.787.3*86.7
2.12.12.2
Munster62.266.079.7
67.870.583.7
3.13.02.4
Scarlets76.577.476.6
Ulster75.376.375.4
Leinster75.276.275.3
Cheetahs51.854.251.4
58.259.4*58.3
3.63.53.6
Zebre34.336.233.4
40.942.040.9
4.34.24.3
Edinburgh41.642.741.6
Dragons40.441.540.4
Treviso40.241.340.2
Connacht28.616.313.7
35.020.318.4
4.65.35.4
Blues19.621.119.1
24.825.824.8
5.15.05.1
Ospreys19.721.119.0
25.226.225.2
5.15.05.1
Kings12.313.0*12.4
Glasgow vs KingsHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*ERCC100.0*Average seed
Glasgow89.479.478.5
92.183.181.7
1.92.42.4
Munster69.871.471.6
75.576.175.5
2.82.72.7
Scarlets68.668.667.5
76.577.176.6
Ulster67.267.166.0
75.476.075.4
Leinster67.066.965.8
75.275.9*75.3
Cheetahs50.652.652.8
58.259.058.2
3.63.53.5
Zebre32.834.835.0
40.841.6*40.9
Edinburgh31.531.530.6
41.542.341.6
4.44.44.5
Dragons30.530.429.5
40.441.2*40.5
4.44.44.5
Treviso30.530.429.5
40.240.9*40.2
4.44.44.6
Connacht20.121.621.7
26.427.026.4
Blues18.620.120.2
24.825.524.9
Ospreys18.620.120.2
25.225.925.3
Kings4.75.011.1
7.68.417.6
6.26.15.7

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Matt Grande for adding this league.