﻿Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of winning the regular season title, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.
To help flush out each team’s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs. All the change columns are since the end of yesterday. The biggest movers up and down are in bold. The teams are ordered by their odds of making the playoffs (more interesting than their record.) Click on a team to see its big games and what if scenarios.
Conf: Current conference wins, losses, and percentage of games won.
Overall: Current total wins, losses, and percentage of games won.
RPI: Ratings Percentage Index, the same formula used by NCAA Basketball, except I multiply the end result by 10,000 to make the change column more readable.
RPI rank: RPI rank among all teams in Division I. The sign of the change is flipped so negative is bad.
Chance will win regular season title: This is what we care about. Out of the millions of simulated seasons they finished first in their division this percentage of the time.
Game: Who they beat yesterday and who they are going to play today. The number before the team name is their RPI rank (for Division I teams).