"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsChance will finish regular season at seed
SaturdayPGW-D-LGD%Change12345678910111213141516Avg.ChangeRPIStrengthSunday
PhoenixWSan Diego 1-02929-2-222100.0%+0.1682542100000000001.4+0.453.622Phoenix Rising FC
El PasoTNew Mexico 0-02537-4-1898.7+0.02244157622010000002.5-0.061.583El Paso Locomotive FC
RGVTAustin 1-12517-4-3694.0-0.961826161458142000004.1-0.172.543Rio Grande Valley FC
San DiegoLPhoenix 0-12116-3-5-292.1-3.212202612185822211005.2-0.589.485San Diego Loyal FC
Orange CountyTSacramento 2-22216-4-4590.1-2.1121421132261123311005.6-0.2718.499Orange County SC
AustinTRGV 1-12025-5-3272.8+0.415981910165138421006.5+0.094.490Austin Bold FC
Tacoma1343-4-4-354.4+1.90026512820581197428.7+0.1923.428Tacoma Defiance
New MexicoTEl Paso 0-0216-3-6148.9-3.601341061771914853108.2-0.186.465New Mexico United
San Antonio1824-6-3443.5+2.201339615619151074218.5+0.178.461San Antonio FC
Col Springs1825-3-5141.0+1.801338514619161074218.6+0.1416.461Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Oakland671-3-4-522.6+1.300121531148121414131111.1+0.0828.387at Los Angeles IIOakland Roots FC
SacramentoTOrange County 2-21323-4-6-521.1+0.40001143115914161512811.1+0.0230.388Sacramento Republic FC
Las Vegas1314-1-9-1311.9+0.70001021737121618181412.0+0.0229.368Las Vegas Lights FC
Los Angeles II1313-4-7-67.9+0.90000021525101418212212.6+0.0631.368OaklandLA Galaxy II
Salt Lake II133-4-8-81.1+0.100000000135915264013.7+0.0325.348Real Monarchs SLC

While I send an update each morning after games, the site fails to update randomly. Ken has gone incommunicado, but the site seems to fix itself within a day or two -- Rob

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 7/24
New Mexico 0 El Paso 0
9:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Phoenix+0.0
El Paso-0.1
RGV+0.2
Austin+0.6
+0.0
New Mexico-2.4
-0.2
San Antonio+0.7
+0.0
Col Springs+0.8
+0.0
San Diego 0 Phoenix 1
10:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Phoenix+0.1
+0.3
San Diego-2.1
-0.5
Orange County+0.2
+0.1
Tacoma+0.5
+0.0
Oakland+0.4
Sacramento+0.4
Las Vegas+0.4
Los Angeles II+0.2
Orange County 2 Sacramento 2
10:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
San Diego+0.1
+0.1
Orange County-1.8
-0.3
Tacoma+0.6
Oakland+0.4
+0.0
Sacramento-0.1
Las Vegas+0.5
+0.0
Los Angeles II+0.2
+0.0
RGV 1 Austin 1
9:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
El Paso+0.1
RGV-0.9
-0.2
Austin+0.1
+0.0
New Mexico+0.2
+0.0
San Antonio+0.3
+0.0
Col Springs+0.2
+0.0
Tacoma vs San DiegoIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
10:00 PM Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
San Diego88.892.296.2
5.75.34.6
Tacoma63.351.345.6
8.09.09.4
Oakland21.123.423.9
11.211.111.1
Sacramento19.522.022.5
11.211.111.1
Las Vegas10.912.412.8
San Antonio vs El PasoHomeDrawAway
8:30 PM Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
El Paso97.998.899.5
2.82.62.2
Austin70.573.474.5
6.66.56.5
New Mexico45.749.751.4
8.38.18.1
San Antonio53.441.135.9
7.88.79.1
Col Springs38.341.743.1
8.78.68.6
Los Angeles II vs OaklandHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tacoma55.055.452.7
8.78.78.8
Oakland17.721.731.0
11.611.210.3
Sacramento21.521.720.0
11.111.111.2
Los Angeles II11.26.04.1
12.112.913.2
Las Vegas vs Orange CountyHomeDrawAway
10:30 PM Tue100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Orange County85.489.494.5
6.15.85.1
Tacoma53.755.154.7
Las Vegas17.910.47.6
11.412.212.5
Week of 7/31
Tacoma vs New MexicoIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
4:30 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
RGV94.594.193.1
4.14.14.2
San Diego91.492.592.9
5.35.25.2
Orange County89.290.591.0
5.75.65.6
Austin74.473.170.1
6.46.56.6
Tacoma62.250.745.8
8.19.09.4
New Mexico42.147.560.3
8.78.27.4
San Antonio45.843.939.8
8.58.58.6
Col Springs43.241.537.5
8.68.68.7
Oakland20.723.524.6
11.211.111.1
Sacramento19.122.123.3
11.211.111.1
Las Vegas10.612.513.4
Los Angeles II6.98.38.9
Austin vs Col SpringsHomeDrawAway
9:00 PM Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Austin80.469.461.2
5.96.87.3
New Mexico*48.950.247.7
8.28.18.2
San Antonio43.444.742.5
8.58.48.5
Col Springs33.641.455.3
9.18.67.7
Austin vs San AntonioHomeDrawAway
9:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Austin80.369.461.2
5.96.87.3
New Mexico49.150.147.6
8.28.18.2
San Antonio36.044.157.7
9.08.57.6
Col Springs40.942.240.1
8.68.68.7
Tacoma vs SacramentoHomeDrawAway
10:00 PM Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tacoma62.750.041.6
8.19.19.6
Oakland21.724.023.0
11.211.111.2
Sacramento15.221.433.1
11.611.110.2
Las Vegas11.312.812.3
El Paso vs San AntonioHomeDrawAway
9:00 PM Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
El Paso99.498.597.4
2.32.73.0
Austin73.972.870.0
6.56.56.6
New Mexico50.548.944.9
8.18.18.3
San Antonio38.443.856.2
8.98.57.6
Col Springs42.341.037.7
8.68.68.7
Loudoun vs Col SpringsHomeDrawAway
7:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
RGV94.794.393.3
4.04.14.1
Austin74.973.770.7
6.46.56.6
New Mexico51.850.246.1
8.08.18.3
San Antonio46.144.641.0
8.48.58.6
Col Springs32.437.249.4
9.38.98.0
Oakland vs Orange CountyHomeDrawAway
8:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Orange County85.489.794.8
6.15.75.0
Tacoma53.055.355.2
8.78.78.8
Oakland30.220.616.6
10.411.311.7
Oakland vs PhoenixHomeDrawAway
10:00 PM Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Phoenix1.61.51.3
Orange County88.990.290.6
Tacoma51.754.755.8
8.88.78.7
Oakland30.821.718.5
10.411.211.5
Sacramento19.521.321.9
11.211.111.1
Las Vegas10.912.012.4
12.112.012.0
Sacramento vs New York IIHomeDrawAway
11:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Orange County89.490.590.9
Tacoma52.655.756.7
8.88.78.6
Oakland21.623.323.9
11.211.111.0
Sacramento26.517.414.4
10.611.511.8
Las Vegas11.212.412.8
12.112.011.9
Los Angeles II vs San DiegoHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
San Diego88.791.695.6
5.75.34.7
Los Angeles II12.16.64.8
12.012.813.1
Salt Lake II vs RGVHomeDrawAway
10:00 PM Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
RGV91.093.196.5
4.64.33.7
Salt Lake II2.00.80.5
13.213.813.9
Phoenix vs RGVHomeDrawAway
10:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Phoenix1.31.51.6
RGV92.594.297.1
4.44.13.5
El Paso vs Salt Lake IIHomeDrawAway
9:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
El Paso99.298.397.5
2.32.83.0
Salt Lake II0.71.02.4
13.813.613.0

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.