How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Philadelphia 0 NYCFC 2 +9.8
+1.3
+3.2
-0.8
+1.0
San Jose 4 DC United 1 +0.4
+0.1
+0.0
Nashville 0 Miami 0 +0.3
+0.1
Montreal 0 Columbus 0 +0.3
+0.1
+0.1
Orlando 3 Cincinnati 0 -0.1
New England 2 Atlanta 1 -0.1
NY Red Bulls 2 Chicago 0 -0.1
Minnesota 0 Austin 1 -0.2
-0.1
Vancouver 0 Colorado 1 +0.1
Houston 1 LAFC 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando vs NYCFC-3.4+0.5+7.3
-0.6+0.1+1.4
-2.4-0.2+5.8
+0.1-0.0-0.2
-0.4+0.1+0.9
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.3*-0.0-0.6
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Chicago-0.1+0.3-0.0
NY Red Bulls vs Toronto-0.1+0.3-0.1
Nashville vs New England-0.2+0.3+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.3
Columbus vs DC United-0.1+0.3-0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Chicago vs Philadelphia-0.1+0.3-0.0
Miami vs Montreal-0.1+0.3-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Miami vs Atlanta-0.1+0.3-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Toronto vs Columbus-0.1+0.3-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.2
Philadelphia vs New England-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.1-0.3
Portland vs Seattle+0.3+0.2-0.6
San Jose vs Seattle+0.1+0.2-0.4
Sporting KC vs Austin+0.1+0.1-0.4
RSL vs San Jose-0.1+0.3-0.0
LA Galaxy vs LAFC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs Vancouver+0.1+0.0-0.1
Houston vs Sporting KC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Houston-0.0+0.1-0.1
Colorado vs Minnesota-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NYCFC finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011121314SpoonCount
82-99In100.0%100No40,190*
8124-3-4In99.81000No3,713*
8023-5-3In99.9100No6,891*
7923-4-4In99.81000No12,657*
7822-6-3In99.81000No22,544*
7722-5-4In99.81000No38,662*
7622-4-5In99.81000No65,568*
7521-6-4In99.71000No106,877*
7421-5-5In99.51000No170,479*
7321-4-6In99.31000No266,951*
7220-6-5In98.91000No408,115*
7120-5-6In98.41000No608,749*
7019-7-5In97.510000No887,165*
6919-6-6In96.19910No1,267,506*
6819-5-7In94.19910No1,770,981*
6718-7-6In91.39820No2,420,852*
6618-6-7In87.397300No3,239,432*
6518-5-8In82.095500No4,245,310*
6417-7-7In75.092800No5,443,571*
6317-6-8In66.48811000No6,849,130*
6216-8-7In56.18416100No8,437,051*
6116-7-8In44.67721200No10,186,462*
6016-6-9In32.969283000No12,053,161*
5915-8-8In22.060346000No13,979,159*
5815-7-9In13.0494010100No15,866,847*
5715-6-10In6.53844162000No17,675,272*
5614-8-9In2.72744245000No19,313,669*
5514-7-10100.0%0.8174031101000No20,658,522*
5413-9-9100.00.2932371740000No21,665,739*
5313-8-10100.00.0422372691000No22,286,169*
5213-7-11100.00.021331331740000No22,455,020*
5112-9-1099.90.006223526102000No22,169,262*
5012-8-1199.3No021128331951000No21,457,678*
4912-7-1296.9No004173229133000No20,353,195*
4811-9-1189.8No001823342491000No18,922,858*
4711-8-1274.8No00021228331951000No17,219,346*
4611-7-1352.3No0004163130143000No15,362,325*
4510-9-1228.9No0017213326102000No13,413,024*
4410-8-1312.2No0002102633216100No11,467,477*
4310-7-143.9No000315313115300No9,597,106*
429-9-130.9No0001621342710100.0%7,867,802*
419-8-140.2No000211283420500.06,305,629*
409-7-150.0No000141834301110.04,944,685*
398-9-140.0No0001928372140.23,783,853*
388-8-150.0No000419373180.92,837,964*
378-7-16OutNo002113240153.02,078,377*
367-9-15OutNo00052544257.21,488,225*
357-8-16OutNo000217443614.11,038,562*
347-7-17OutNo00110414823.6708,666*
336-9-16OutNo006355935.0468,521*
326-8-17OutNo003286947.1302,993*
316-7-18OutNo002217758.6191,637*
305-9-17OutNo01158468.7117,481*
295-8-18OutNo00118977.270,019*
285-7-19OutNo079384.240,174*
274-9-18OutNo059588.622,553*
264-8-19OutNo039792.412,392*
254-7-20OutNo29894.96,518*
243-9-19OutNo19996.83,365*
233-8-20OutNo010098.11,631*
223-7-21OutNo010098.4749*
6-21OutNo100100.036,959*
Total:80.9%10.9%2115121087654332110.3%394,743,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the NYCFC finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeNew EnglandOrlandoColumbusMontrealAtlantaMiamiNY Red BullsDC UnitedTorontoNashvilleChicagoCincinnatiPhiladelphia
67-9912.5%Yes
6618-6-712.51000
6518-5-812.510000000
6417-7-712.5100000000000000
6317-6-812.51000000000000000
6216-8-712.51000000000000000
17-5-912.51000000000000000
6116-7-812.51000000000000000
17-4-1012.51000000000000000
6016-6-912.51000000000000000
15-9-712.51000000000000000
5915-8-812.51000000000000000
16-5-1012.51000000000000000
5815-7-912.5990000000000000
14-10-712.5990000000000000
16-4-1112.5990000000000000
5715-6-1012.4980000000000000
14-9-812.4970000000000000
5614-8-912.3941111110000000
15-5-1112.3951111110000000
13-11-712.3941111110000000
5514-7-1012.0891111111111000
13-10-812.0881111111111000
15-4-1212.1891111111111000
5413-9-911.5782222222211111
14-6-1111.6792222222111111
12-12-711.5782222222211111
5313-8-1010.8644444433222111
14-5-1210.8654444333222111
12-11-810.7624444433322111
5213-7-119.6475555554333221
12-10-99.4446555554433221
14-4-139.5465555554433221
5112-9-107.7276666665444322
13-6-127.8286666665444322
5012-8-115.7146666665444332
13-5-135.8146666665444332
11-11-95.5126666665444332
4912-7-123.755555554433222
11-10-103.555555544433222
4811-9-111.913333332222211
4711-8-120.801111111111111
4611-7-130.200000000000000
4510-9-120.000000000000000
4410-8-130.000000000000000
4310-7-140.00000000000000
4210-6-150.00000000000000
419-8-140.000000
409-7-15No00
6-39No
Total:7.4%49.12.01.91.91.91.91.71.51.31.21.20.80.80.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/1100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 0 NYCFC 2 -1.9
Montreal 0 Columbus 0 -0.1
San Jose 4 DC United 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/7100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando vs NYCFC+0.8-0.1-1.7
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.0-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs New England-0.0-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs New England-0.0-0.0+0.1
Columbus vs DC United+0.0-0.1-0.0
Miami vs Montreal+0.0-0.1+0.0
Miami vs Atlanta+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627
85-99100
8425-3-31000
8324-5-2100
8224-4-31000
8124-3-410000
8023-5-31000
7923-4-410000
7822-6-310000
7722-5-410000
7622-4-510000
7521-6-410000
7421-5-510000
7321-4-69910
7220-6-59910
7120-5-69810
7019-7-5972000
6919-6-6963100
6819-5-7945100
6718-7-6917200
6618-6-78793000
6518-5-882135000
6417-7-7751780000
6317-6-866221100000
6216-8-756281511000
6116-7-8453320120000
6016-6-93336243300000
5915-8-82238286600000
5815-7-9133629111011000
5715-6-107312618142200000
5614-8-93241925195500000
5514-7-101161228211091100000
5413-9-90952719181534000000
5313-8-1004221122518881100000
5213-7-110201262617171334000000
5112-9-10000622010241799120000
5012-8-110020114241419155501000
4912-7-12000041177251613112300000
4811-9-110001082211123168820000
4711-8-120000020114241418158210000
4611-7-130000041167241717104100000
4510-9-1200010721911202013510000
4410-8-130000020104132223167200000
4310-7-140000031513222418931000
429-9-13000001014122125201141000
419-8-140000001411212621114100
409-7-15000000141121272211310
398-9-1400000014112228211020
388-8-1500000151325291971
378-7-16000016172929153
367-9-150000292333257
357-8-16001415323414
347-7-170018264024
336-9-160004194235
326-8-170002123947
316-7-180173459
305-9-170042769
295-8-18022177
285-7-19011584
274-9-18001189
264-8-190792
254-7-200595
243-9-190397
233-8-20298
223-7-21298
212-9-20199
202-8-21100
192-7-22199
6-18100
Total:11117867464534332222222111110