How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati 0 Colorado 2 -3.5
-0.1
+4.4
-0.5
Columbus 2 Chicago 0 -0.2
-0.6
NYCFC 2 New England 3 +0.2
DC United 1 Miami 0 -0.1
Atlanta 2 Philadelphia 2 +0.1
Orlando 5 San Jose 0 -0.1
-0.1
NY Red Bulls 2 Nashville 0 -0.1
+0.1
Toronto 2 Orlando 3 -0.1
-0.4
Dallas 1 Minnesota 1 -0.2
RSL 3 Vancouver 1 -0.1
Portland 2 Sporting KC 1 +0.1
LAFC 1 Houston 1 *-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Chicago vs Cincinnati-1.4-0.3+3.2
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+5.0-1.5-8.9
-0.3+0.0+0.6
New England vs NY Red Bulls+0.1+0.0-0.2
Nashville vs Toronto-0.1+0.2+0.1
-0.2+0.0+0.5
Montreal vs DC United-0.1+0.2-0.0
NYCFC vs Atlanta-0.0+0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs Columbus-0.0+0.1-0.0
Vancouver vs LA Galaxy+0.4-0.1-0.5
Minnesota vs Austin+0.3-0.2-0.4
LAFC vs Dallas-0.1-0.0+0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Toronto vs Cincinnati-1.2-0.0+3.7
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+3.1-1.0-7.9
-0.3+0.1+0.7
Austin vs Columbus+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.2
Chicago vs Philadelphia+0.1+0.0-0.2
+2.2-0.5-1.7
-0.1+0.0+0.0
NYCFC vs DC United-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs NY Red Bulls-0.1+0.1-0.0
Nashville vs Montreal-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Miami vs Orlando-0.1+0.0+0.0
+0.6-0.1-0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Dallas vs New England+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.5-0.1-0.5
Seattle vs Vancouver-0.1+0.1+0.5
San Jose vs LA Galaxy+0.3-0.2-0.4
Portland vs Minnesota-0.2+0.1+0.5
Sporting KC vs LAFC-0.1+0.0+0.2
Austin vs Portland+0.1-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011121314SpoonCount
71-85In100.0%100No110,942*
7021-3-3In82.4973No68*
6920-5-2In76.6973No137*
6820-4-3In73.8937No302*
6720-3-4In68.6919No684*
6619-5-3In55.188121No1,396*
6519-4-4In47.182171No2,936*
6419-3-5In37.0762310No5,685*
6318-5-4In27.7682930No10,780*
6218-4-5In19.1583650No20,183*
6117-6-4In11.94941910No37,378*
6017-5-5In6.738461410No66,758*
5917-4-6In3.3284722300No115,685*
5816-6-5In1.3194529600No198,410*
5716-5-6In0.412393712100No329,042*
5616-4-7In0.16304119400No532,929*
5515-6-6100.0%0.032040288100No844,074*
5415-5-7100.00.01113336163000No1,307,060*
5314-7-6100.00.0052438257100No1,976,753*
5214-6-799.7No0214333315300No2,929,511*
5114-5-898.90.00162336258100No4,237,437*
5013-7-796.0No002133133164000No5,993,971*
4913-6-889.0No00152135279100No8,293,258*
4813-5-975.5No002112934195000No11,234,159*
4712-7-856.1No0004183430122000No14,862,962*
4612-6-935.0No00182535236100No19,248,004*
4512-5-1017.8No000315333314200No24,383,453*
4411-7-97.2No00162337257100No30,196,607*
4311-6-102.3No000213323516200No36,582,478*
4211-5-110.6No00152238267000.0%43,328,045*
4110-7-100.1No000212343614200.050,199,053*
4010-6-110.0No00016254124400.056,848,142*
399-8-100.0No0002153934900.062,932,291*
389-7-110.0No0001831421710.168,106,839*
379-6-120.0No000322442730.371,993,982*
368-8-11OutNo00114423671.074,341,136*
358-7-12OutNo00083645122.874,962,174*
348-6-13OutNo00042850186.373,795,232*
337-8-12OutNo00220522612.170,879,599*
327-7-13OutNo00113513620.466,414,565*
317-6-14OutNo008464530.560,685,742*
306-8-13OutNo005405541.754,024,637*
296-7-14OutNo003346453.046,824,803*
286-6-15OutNo001277263.539,499,040*
275-8-14OutNo01217972.632,405,441*
265-7-15OutNo00158480.225,833,240*
255-6-16OutNo00118986.119,994,084*
244-8-15OutNo0089290.614,999,738*
234-7-16OutNo059593.910,910,848*
224-6-17OutNo039796.17,677,238*
214-5-18OutNo029897.65,213,833*
203-7-17OutNo019998.63,414,363*
193-6-18OutNo19999.12,152,381*
183-5-19OutNo010099.51,305,291*
172-7-18OutNo010099.7756,232*
162-6-19OutNo010099.8417,591*
152-5-20OutNo010099.9220,586*
141-7-19OutNo010099.9110,375*
131-6-20OutNo010099.951,501*
121-5-21OutNo010099.922,559*
4-11OutNo100100.0125,193*
Total:4.7%0.0%00001123581218252518.9%1,203,968,816

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeOrlandoNew EnglandPhiladelphiaColumbusNYCFCNY Red BullsAtlantaMontrealNashvilleDC UnitedTorontoMiamiChicago
65-8512.5%Yes
6419-3-512.81000
6318-5-412.810000000
6218-4-512.510000000000000
6117-6-412.39900000000000
6017-5-512.2990000000000000
5917-4-612.4970010000000000
5816-6-512.1931111111100000
17-3-712.0931111111100000
5716-5-611.6871122211111000
15-8-411.6861122211111000
5616-4-710.9772233322211000
15-7-510.9762233322211000
5515-6-69.9634455533322000
16-3-89.9634455543322000
14-9-49.8614455543322000
5415-5-78.5465577654432000
14-8-58.4455577654532000
16-2-98.4455577654543000
5314-7-66.8296699865543100
15-4-86.8306698865643100
13-10-46.6276699865643100
5214-6-75.1166699866653110
15-3-95.0156699866653110
13-9-54.9156699866653110
5114-5-83.476688765543110
13-8-63.375588765543110
15-2-103.366688765543110
12-11-43.165588765543110
5013-7-72.024466544433110
14-4-92.024466544433110
12-10-51.924466544432110
4913-6-81.012244332222000
14-3-101.012243332222000
12-9-60.912233332221000
4813-5-90.401122111111000
12-8-70.401122111111000
14-2-110.401122111111000
4712-7-80.100011100000000
13-4-100.100011100000000
11-10-60.100011000000000
4612-6-90.000000000000000
11-9-70.000000000000000
4512-5-100.000000000000000
4411-7-90.00000000000000
4311-6-100.00000000000000
4211-5-110.0000000000000
4110-7-10No0
409-9-9No0
4-39No
Total:0.1%0.30.10.10.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 6/18100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati 0 Colorado 2 +1.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Chicago vs Cincinnati+0.6+0.0-1.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Cincinnati+0.5-0.1-1.4
Miami vs Orlando+0.1-0.0-0.0
Dallas vs New England+0.1-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Vancouver-0.0+0.0+0.1
San Jose vs LA Galaxy+0.0-0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Philadelphia+0.1-0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627
8527-0-01000
72-75100
7121-4-2919
7021-3-382153
6920-5-277203
6820-4-374197
6720-3-4692290
6619-5-355331101
6519-4-447351701
6419-3-5373922110
6318-5-42840272300
6218-4-51939325500
6117-6-412373389010
6017-5-5732331314110
5917-4-632529182013000
5816-6-5118222326360000
5716-5-601114242971201000
5616-4-706822281318140000
5515-6-6033172218253801000
5415-5-701110132028815130000
5314-7-600056172413232701000
5214-6-700221216172761403000
5114-5-8000106716251123280100
5013-7-70000221116152861604000
4913-6-8000105714241125292000
4813-5-9000022914152861951000
4712-7-80000045132212271330000
4612-6-90000117111428241020000
4512-5-100000003411202921930000
4411-7-900001169232820931000
4311-6-1000000231123272010310000
4211-5-1100001141222272110310000
4110-7-100000014122227211031000
4010-6-11000000141223272193000
399-8-100000014132428198200
389-7-110000001515272817610
379-6-12000000271929261330
368-8-11000031024312381
358-7-12000014153031163
348-6-130000282335256
337-8-120000415343512
327-7-13000019284220
317-6-1400004214430
306-8-130002134342
296-7-14000183853
286-6-15000043263
275-8-1400022573
265-7-150011980
255-6-160001386
244-8-1500991
234-7-1600694
224-6-1700496
214-5-180298
203-7-170199
193-6-180199
183-5-1900100
172-7-1800100
162-6-190100
152-5-200100
141-7-190100
131-6-200100
121-5-210100
111-4-220100
100-6-210100
4-9100
Total:0000000000111122334457810121619