Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.4 to 38.9%
2 points   1 3-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.4
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 +0.3
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton-5.5-1.0-0.9+3.6+4.8+4.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.5-0.2-0.1+0.2+0.4+0.4
Anaheim vs Minnesota-0.6-0.7-0.7*+0.3*+0.3+0.8
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.6-0.7*-0.1*+0.1*+0.2+0.7
St. Louis vs San Jose+0.8*-0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.6
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona+0.2*-0.2*-0.5*-0.5-0.7*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
84-106In99.7%100371*
83389-5In95.39811191*
823810-4In94.69721334*
813710-5In92.69622578*
803711-4In86.093331,007*
793611-5In80.2925301,507*
783511-6In73.2876602,409*
773512-5In62.5819903,630*
763412-6In50.1741313005,252*
753413-5In37.1651717107,601*
743313-6In24.65521222010,514*
733314-5100.0%13.443252840014,258*
723214-6100.06.230283560019,432*
713215-5100.02.2202940101024,644*
703115-699.80.61127441520031,118*
693116-599.60.162345224000039,039*
683016-698.90.02174229901046,791*
673017-597.2No111363514030055,073*
662917-693.7No072838201610063,796*
652918-587.6No032036254102071,578*
642818-678.0No1123125817510078,863*
632819-566.9No172422132292049,885*
2718-762.4No06211916241120035,970*
622719-650.0No031513192618610090,407*
612720-535.2No019619232613300093,531*
602620-622.2No004215162822920093,835*
592621-512.7No002110924291861092,718*
582521-66.5No01064172927133090,162*
572522-53.5No00032102531217142,575*
2421-72.4No002182232249142,879*
562422-61.2No00010415293016378,727*
552423-50.4No0000028233425771,584*
542323-60.1No000041532341463,325*
532324-50.1No0002926402355,474*
522224-60.0No001419423447,474*
512225-50.0No000213404539,720*
502125-6OutNo018355632,274*
492126-5OutNo005286725,582*
482026-6OutNo003227520,111*
472027-5OutNo01178215,168*
461927-6OutNo01128711,586*
451928-5OutNo09918,397*
441828-6OutNo006946,155*
431829-5OutNo04964,193*
421729-6OutNo2982,884*
411730-5OutNo2981,887*
401630-6OutNo1991,264*
391631-5OutNo199823*
381531-6OutNo0100497*
2-37OutNo100863*
Total:38.9%1.2%3491166788999101,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasCalgaryWinnipegNashvilleColoradoMinnesotaSt. LouisDallasArizonaAnaheimSan JoseLos AngelesVancouverChicago
106520-08.6%10276116810977718
91436-3NoYes
90437-2No333333
89438-1NoYes
88417-4No1414291429
87418-3No1491451459923
86408-46.16312129121269666
85409-37.7669986511689359
84399-46.38285149788558112
83389-55.2441291211129445636
823810-46.354889117105676213
813710-55.2569101097105544510
803711-46.7568988109655659
793611-54.9669889119655648
783511-65.2671089898665549
773512-56.067898998766648
763412-66.377997878676647
753413-56.288878778776657
743313-66.198767777787757
733314-56.11010766666998865
723214-66.3111165555510108864
713215-55.9131244444411109964
703115-66.314134433341111101073
693116-56.115143333331212101072
683016-66.215143333231212101072
673017-56.215132322331112101072
3118-36.215132322331212101072
662917-65.91513233323111110972
2816-85.81413343333101091072
652918-55.5131234333310109962
2817-75.4131134333310109862
3019-35.6131234333310108862
642818-65.01110343333887752
2919-45.21210343333898851
2717-84.81110333333887752
632819-54.198333333665541
2920-34.397334333665631
622719-63.275333332454421
612720-52.253223332332211
602620-61.432212221221110
592621-50.721111111111100
582521-60.410001110000000
572522-50.200000000000000
562422-60.100000000000000
552423-50.000000000000000
542424-40.0000000000000
532324-5No00000000
522123-8No00
512326-3No0
2-50No
Total:2.4%5.54.61.71.81.81.91.81.64.04.03.53.52.30.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 -0.1
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina-0.0*+0.0-0.0*+0.1*+0.0-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton+1.3+0.3+0.2-0.8-1.1-1.1
Anaheim vs Minnesota+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs San Jose-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.1+0.1-0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona-0.0+0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
86-106100
85409-3982
84399-4100
83389-595311
823810-495221
813710-593422
803711-486733
793611-58012530
783511-67314660
773512-56319909000
763412-6502412012000
753413-53728161161010
743313-62530192201120
733314-5132921424414000
723214-662422725830600000
713215-52181910231350910100
703115-6111131416198113202000
693116-50681592212216510400000
683016-60241331914516103081010
673017-5111011312101217601120300
662917-600607813620102137105100
652918-500303314117126121340931000
642818-6011110010911619711272100
632819-50100604514219104111383100
622719-60003121201391071415941000
612720-50010080651429171712520000
602620-600000422130310172015831000
592621-500002111001391721191252000
582521-601005001271521211573100
572522-500003000261421231893100
562422-600001000151221242011410
552423-50000000015122125211030
542323-600000151323272192
532324-5000016152629185
522224-600002820312811
512225-50001312283620
502125-60016214032
492126-50003143945
482026-600183457
472027-50042768
461927-60022176
451928-511584
441828-6001090
431829-50793
421729-60496
411730-50397
401630-6298
391631-5199
381531-60100
371532-5199
361432-6100
351433-5199
2-34100
Total:1222232323232423233344444445556